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Updated model projects dramatic trend for the better

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by btd, Apr 7, 2020.

  1. btd

    btd DI Member

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    This is dramatically different since the last update of this model. It's for the United States only though. Among other factors, it assumes social distancing in place up to August. This is no crystal ball by any measure, but encouraging if the general trend holds. And if so, we should start to see a reversal soon.

    https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
     
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  2. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    The shaded uncertainty on the graph isn't very reassuring. I haven't seen the previous graphs so maybe that is an improvement...but dang. :o o: Glad I'm not in the US. (Though the area my family lives in still has zero cases and very few cases in the surrounding counties.)
     
  3. Sedona

    Sedona DI Forum Adept

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    Model is based on 100% cooperation with social distancing through end of May. As of right now just 70% of US is under social distancing directives, and not 100% under those directives are cooperating. Also, there is no way Trump will continue those through the end of May. So, while that graph looks a bit more encouraging, I don't think it is based on anywhere near realistic assumptions. I would like to see an overlay on the graph based on 70% social distancing through the end of April and see what the difference is.
     
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  4. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    Not a chance without significant changes to the quality of the job done with social distancing. For this to get better, the US needs to learn how to quarantine just like we are learning.

    The initial high shaded curve is based on attaining herd immunity and ends about June 1. A large number of people need to get sick and recover.

    When you flatten the curve, by reducing the number of people who get sick, you have to greatly increase the time so that in the long run the same number of people get sick, recover and herd immunity is attained.

    This is because the infection rate has not been changed.

    In other words, just like squashing a ball of dough, the flattened result will become wider. The volume of the dough has not changed. Here the number infected to attain herd immunity will not change either. The result will be an increase up to a low plateau where it will stay for a long time and then very slowly come down. The problem is this long time will destroy the economy.

    The above is assuming the the social distancing measures remain as they are resulting in no change to the infection rate.

    The infection rate is a result of how contagious the virus is verses the amount of social distancing or resistance to transmission (masks). The virus has to transmit form person to person. Increase the resistance of transmission with masks or social distancing and the infection rate will be reduced.

    The problem is the US needs to open up the economy before they attain herd immunity. To do this they need to hunt the virus down and stop the transmission completely.
     
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  5. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    Are you from Arkansas? Arkansas is doing a much better job of contact tracing. States that do a better job of contact tracing will have a much lower incidence of infection.

    The article below interviews a number of travelers from China about their quarantine experience. None of them experienced any amount of follow up except a traveler who went home to Arkansas. Here are some quotes:

    State health workers later dropped off thermometers at her house and insisted her entire family stay home for two weeks and provide updates on their condition.

    “They asked us every day: ‘Have you stayed inside? Have you met anyone? Have you been quarantined?’” Ms. Passmore said. “They’re really nice about it. They said, ‘If you need anything, we can go grocery-shopping for you.’”


    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...-to-us-since-coronavirus-surfaced/ar-BB12acml

    The US has a very fractured government. The many states manage their health departments through many counties. The US federal government is supposed to supply guidance and coordination between the different states. This is an epic failure of the US government.

    So now the states are experimenting with contact tracing:

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/poli...l-virus-revive-economy/ar-BB12dC3l?li=BBnb7Kz
     
  6. PatO

    PatO DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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    Perhaps the timeline better represents the Philippines
     
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  7. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    Yes, because the smart Filipinos are doing contact tracing and temporary quarantines.
     
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  8. Show Pony

    Show Pony DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Here in Dumagete the government was able to track down the contacts of the 2 infected Chinese from Wuhan and quarantine them very quickly.
    In Kalibo (sp) they rounded up 500 or 600 Chinese from Wuhan and sent them home within days of the announced lockdown in Wuhan.
    When wide spread testing is available I have faith the problem will be gone from here.
    This country is adept at recovering from calamity because it happens so often and they don't really have a choice.
     
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  9. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    No I am not, my family mostly lives in southern Indiana.

    I bet Arkansas is doing great with contact tracing. It must be much easier to do if your wife, sister and cousin are all the same person.
     
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  10. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    For three bloody weeks now I have stayed in my house, not even past the front door, wearing a facemask - even one over my anus just in case the virus is smart! All of this for self-preservation.

    And now I just died laughing.
     
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