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Discussion in 'Off-Topic Forum' started by john boy, Sep 22, 2021.

  1. cabb

    cabb DI Forum Patron ✤Forum Sponsor✤

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    TSMC lives in Taiwan. I would argue that TSMC is to chips as Saudi Arabia is to oil.

    TSMC accounts for more than half of the global semiconductor foundry market by revenue, according to Taiwanese research firm TrendForce, and it makes more than 90% of the world's most advanced chips.
     
  2. Pompolino

    Pompolino DI Member Showcase Reviewer

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    There are many historical texts on China's world position but this one comes from Bloomberg, last year and has some very interesting information, little understood by us in the West.

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...bal-superpower-is-a-restoration-not-an-ascent

    In 1977 I was sent to China by my university to study the fall of the Gang of Four and the "new transition". I was part of a team that prepared a White Paper which was used to help develop my country's foreign policy at the time. I am Australian and due to its proximity, China has always been a major consideration in Australia's foreign policy. My personal brief was economics which involved an intensive three months of research, prior to our secondment of studying China's economic history. The quoted text gives a succinct summary of what I found at the time (without Google or the internet - just academic papers).
     
  3. dadof3at1ce

    dadof3at1ce DI Member Veteran Marines

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    I don't believe for a second that this deal was done without some kind of defense treaty included. We are not going to risk this without some kind of reward. It also makes sense when you look at the position of Australia in relation to Guam, it takes away some of the importance of the West Philippine Sea and could lessen some of the pressure building there.

    As stated by another poster, Afghanistan has nothing to do with the situation involving Taiwan. That whole situation is such a political mess, it would be extremely interesting to see how the world reacts should China try to exert force, however it would also be a very sad day. I suspect as much as we are supporting them militarily that the USA wouldn't even blink an eye to help if needed. I am doubly sure there are already contingent plans made if something were to occur. If there isn't, more than one head should roll.
     
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  4. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    Contingency plan? Taiwan is very close to China (90 miles) and very far from the USA (7,000 miles). It makes the logistics of the situation impossible in a short period of time. Historically the USA is accustomed to fighting wars with big build-ups of iron (ships, tanks, armored personal carriers, etc.) before hand. This takes time.

    During the past recent history, with fighters purchased from the US, Taiwan had a air superiority over China. Now with so many long distance surface to air missiles and improvements in China's air force this is no longer the case. Furthermore China has stockpiled lots of precision ground to ground missiles.

    In the past, before China had so many long distance missiles, the contingency plan was to use nuclear weapons to bomb China's airfields to reduce China's ability to field aircraft bombers against Taiwan. Now with so many missiles dispersed around this plan is not as effective.

    The only contingency plan has been and still is the nuclear option. It is believed that Taiwan can only defend itself for seven days against a full Chinese air attack.

    There would also be a economic blockade.
     
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  5. Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    I don't dispute anything in the Bloomberg article you referenced. All that article says is that historically China was a considerable economic force, and it mentions the Song dynasty as the finest example of that prowess.
    That same Song dynasty can also serve as a fine example of my view though that China through much of history didn't dominate even its neighbours. In modern days economic power roughly translates into "don't mess with them" militarily (just look at how the G7 are defined (biggest by GDP), but rightly understood as "most powerful").
    During much of history that link between economy and might was much less clear.
    Getting back to the Song dynasty, as you may well be aware, early on they tried to recapture lands from the Liao several times unsuccessfully and ended up paying tribute to the Liao. Then a bit later the Jin, who had previously annihilated the Liao, proceeded to conquer the Song capital, and a big part of their empire. Finally the remainder of the Song empire was captured by the Mongols. Hardly a feat that one would expect of a dominating power.
     
  6. jimeve

    jimeve DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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  7. dadof3at1ce

    dadof3at1ce DI Member Veteran Marines

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    Which is where Guam and this new pact with Australia comes into play. There are ships prepositioned all around the world that have supplies necessary to insert and defend a position on a moments notice. Our ability to assist Taiwan within what you say is a 7 day period is very easily doable. The bigger question is how much politics are played, and if the politics allow the aid to reach Taiwan in time.

    One cannot truly believe that China would resort to a nuclear option over Taiwan, and the use of missiles would be low. They would not be out to destroy this small island, they would want the ability to use it as they see fit. Creating an environment of a barren wasteland is not their end goal. Nor would the fallout of a global scale make it worth their efforts. There is already push back including rulings in world courts-which yes they ignore- against China, and you could multiply that by a factor of 100 if they were to take Taiwan by fore.

    In the end, I don't personally believe the Chinese leaders would order any form of forcible invasion of Taiwan, but this is contingent on the world showing some display of forces willing to aid Taiwan. This is why pacts such as this are a necessity in the region. Given the mutual defense treaty between the USA and Philippines, it isn't to much of a stretch to say any defense plan could further be extended to Taiwan in emergency situations. The world simply needs to show it cares for other countries as much as it does themselves. And that is the political challenge that faces any aid country, and what China hopes will break and allow them to take back what was once theirs.
     
  8. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    Wow there is so much misunderstanding in your arguments.
    You must be thinking of of the MSC prepositioning program. First these ships would not make it to Taiwan's aid. Remember I told you that Taiwan is only 90 miles from China. These ships would be sunk when they neared Taiwan. China has long range anti-ship missiles with conventional warheads with a 930 mile range. These will be launched from Chinese territory that is only 90 miles away from Taiwan. Easily within the range of a 930 mile missile. Second the provisions on these ships support infantry. No defense against missiles.

    One of China's long distance anti-ship missiles.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/DF-21

    MSC prepositioning program
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_sealift_ships

    Wow you totally misunderstood what I said.

    I did not say China would have to use nuclear weapons. I stated that the US would have to use nuclear weapons. China is close enough to Taiwan to use large numbers of conventional weapons. First China would use conventional missiles to knock out Taiwan's air defenses. Similar to the way the US uses Tomahawk cruise missiles early during an attack.
    What you personally believe is not a factor in the Chinese communists party's decision making process.
    Taiwan was never under the control of the communists.
     
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  9. dadof3at1ce

    dadof3at1ce DI Member Veteran Marines

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    You are not correct in saying the prepositioning ships only support infantry, they have enough equipment to support an entire MEU. We used these during the first gulf war, and I was in air defense and we had equipment on them as well. Secondly, there is no way a prepositioned ship would venture in without protection. Nothing says I want to lose more than getting the keys to the car and driving it right into the ocean. Besides, why would they necessarily even have to go all the way to Taiwan? They could easily fly things in from Guam, Australia, or the Philippines if there was that serious a threat that they could not contain.

    China and Taiwan split after the China civil war in the late 1940's, each country claiming as I understand it to be the "real" China. Given they were once one country ruled by communists until what, the late 1800's or early 1900's? I am not sure of the date, I could probably look it up but I am to lazy.

    China has a formidable military and should not be taken lightly. Yes they could use conventional weapons to wipe out Taiwan but again at what cost. The Chinese may be a bit crazy but they are not fools.

    I do not understand at all why you believe any country would have to use the nuclear option. The USA is not going to use that option unless it is a last resort. If they didn't use it in Afghanistan or Persian Gulf to win a war, why would they use it in China in a fight over Taiwan aid? The USA still has, for the most part, supreme fighter power, although China has for sure closed the gap. The nuclear option would only happen in pure self defense and is not a decision to use made lightly.



    And it saddens me that you honestly believe that lowly little me has no say on what mighty China does. How dare you infer that I am not the all powerful Oz???!!! If I can make a house crush a wicked witch I can surely heavily influence China. Maybe I need to get in my Delorean and tell Mao Zedung how to rule things better so he can guarantee victory in the future.

    In the end, China will do what it wants to do, and there is nothing any of us can say or do to change that. They may push the limits to see what they can get away with, but make no mistake about this, everything comes down to money, and the economic losses they could sustain by making such irrational decisions would quickly mount. All major economies in the world are linked through business and commerce and in the end, that is going to drive any decision made. Although I am still sad you think it is not me :(
     
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  10. PatO

    PatO DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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    Taiwan has many joint ventures with China. An example, China Motors Corporation, Taiwan. Mitsubishi is involved in this as well. So maybe no need to invade.
     
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