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Dollar Up or Down

Discussion in 'Expat Section' started by PatO, Aug 4, 2018.

  1. PatO

    PatO DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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    Hopefully, some of you are more economically-inclined than I am. I understand how supply/demand, interest rates, and other hard to grasp factors drive the dollar to peso exchange up or down. What irritates me it seems more times than not, the exchange rate drops every month around the time my SS monthly transfer arrives and I have to convert to cover local expenses, then goes back up a couple of weeks later. It happened again this week. I am not a great believer in conspirisies but it sure seems suspicious.
    I imagine it is the toughshitski rule, it happens!
     
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  2. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    Screenshot_20180804-174800.png

    I don't see a monthly pattern.

    Excuse the months and years in the screenshot, that is for the last year...not the middle ages. Google thinks I'm Persian...and it's quite annoying.
     
  3. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    But you compare a very strong currency which ultimately will fall (if we knew exactly when they we would all be millionaires) against a weak currency which may also fall. Probably better to think of investing in the Japanese Yen or Singapore Dollar .... and, if you feel really lucky, the GBP.
     
  4. Jack Peterson

    Jack Peterson DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Air Force

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  5. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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  6. Sedona

    Sedona DI Member

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    I have my SS payments go direct into a US bank account, that way I can choose the best time to transfer them over to my BDO account in pesos. The short term fluctuations are pretty small actually, a few tenths of a peso. The peso has gone from 49.8 at the start of the year, to 53.5 today, so we should be happy about that. As long as it is above 52, I just do my transfer right away. If it drops below 52 then I will hang in there for awhile and wait for it to get above again. Trump has blown the US deficit through the roof, and his tax cuts for billionaires has been good for the market, this all makes the dollar look strong -- combined with the fact that the PH peso is Asia's worst performing currency -- and hence, one dollar buys a lot of pesos right now.
     
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  7. Edward K

    Edward K DI Forum Adept Veteran Navy

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    Of course, the whole system is corrupt and intended to f*** normal people. However, if you could build up a small reserve then you could wait a couple weeks. Or you could transfer 1/2, then wait two weeks and transfer the rest if this pattern repeats more and more. I think someone once told me that the rate was better toward the end of the month on a wednesday, or was it the other way around...

    If you look at the graphs above, the difference for the Philippine peso over the previous 30 days, the difference is .5 peso, which is $9.43 USD for each $1000 usd, which to you may or may not be worth the wait. Good luck... (.5 pesos difference per dollar x 1000 dollars = 500 pesos. At 53 pesos per dollar = $9.43...) agree with sedona, if it goes below 52, i would probably wait, as the long term trend is up..
     
  8. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    For now.

    Screenshot_20180818-193436.png

    That upwards trend could be erased in a couple months.. The Philippines isn't the most stable of governments/economies. And exchange rates aren't only influenced by internal factors.
     
  9. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    I am not sure the LONG term trend is up - perhaps the short to medium term trend - depending on what you think of as 'long term'. Currency exchange is, of course, not about one currency but is about the two currencies in the exchange, e.g Php and USD. If the Php is weak then most currencies will rise against it, if the USD is strong then most currencies will fall against it. The recent rise in the USD/Php rate is a combination of both of those currency movements. A rising Php rate would cut down the amount you receive per USD - the same would happen if the USD weakens.

    I am not sure of the future of either currency (if I was certain then I am soon a millionaire and off to Barbados!) but the trade wars evolving seem to be hurting emerging markets and so the trend might be for Php to fall. It is my guess that at some point there is going to be a major corrective event in world markets and the USD will fall - but when that happens is an unknown to everyone.

    There is a financial technique called 'averaging' where, if buying shares, you purchase a few shares every month and not all in one go - you would fail to buy all your shares at the lowest possible price (but then so do the majority of buyers) and would also fail in buying them at the highest possible price (fortunately) but bought them all at an average price somewhere between those two extremes. The same could be said for a currency - exchange some every month (as many ex-pats probably do) and you will not get the most or least but you will get an average somewhere in between. The alternative is to 'guess the market' and even most market 'experts' fail on that score.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 19, 2018
  10. Edward K

    Edward K DI Forum Adept Veteran Navy

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    NMRN: I stand corrected, and well put. Never looked back that far... 2008 is obvious, as the corrupt american financial markets f***** it all up (Michael Lewis "The Big Short" is a fun / depressing read).

    What I dislike is trying to explain "UP" ("weakening"- more pesos per dollar) and "DOWN" ("strengthening"- fewer pesos per dollar). Course the proper wording is the other way around... huh ???
     
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