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Peso and interest rate

Discussion in '☋ Dumaguete City ☋' started by jss, Jun 7, 2007.

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  1. jss

    jss DI Member

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    This thing is really baffling me. Someone please shed some light..
    With the rising pesos (i think manily due to the inbound dollars to phil to buy oversupplied real estate developments in phil by ofw's), i have been concerned for some time now on the decreasing value of my U.S. dollars. So i looked into philippine bank peso deposits to see what interest rates they offer; the idea being i would have some peso currency to hedge against the dollar while still getting some interest returns.
    What i found was shocking! Their bank deposits offer maybe 1.5% per annum at best. And the CDs offer ridiculous low returns. Something like 2.5% or so per annum ( i think its 3% if you deposit 100thou dollars+). This is just crazy. In the U.S., you can deposit in savings account that you can withdraw at any time in banks like CapitalOne or ING and get 5%+ per annum. CD's are like 5.25 to 5.5% per annum. Aside from straight differences in these rates, whats really appears to be messed up is the treasury of U.S. versus phil. In U.S. 10year bond is now 5%, and phil it is i think 8% or something. So just based on this difference, phil time deposit products should be offering way higher returns than U.S..
    On the other hand, if you look at loan rates, U.S. mortgage rates are 6-7% or so, and in phil, its probably like 10%+.
    In sum, the spread the phil banks are making is incredibly HUGE!!
    Am i missing something here??
    Are there high yielding time deposits in phil that i am now aware of?
    This is really, really puzzling me.
    The only explanation i can think of is that there is nobody in phil that wants to borrow money at super high rates, so banks dont want to give high interest rates in deposits, otherwise they would not be able to place the deposits they get.
    I am probably way off, as i am not an expert.
    But it just seems very, very strange...
     
  2. Timn8ter

    Timn8ter DI Forum Adept

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    I'm not an economist either but a couple of casual observations:
    The central bank has been raising the prime interest rate to counter what they say are inflationary trends in the economy. The influx of remittances is a contributing factor to inflation.
    The government is carrying a huge public debt (still over 50% of GNP if I remember correctly) and has taken steps to increase revenues. This is why the VAT is now 12% and may be why they offer attractive bond rates.
    The banks are under much stricter regulations than they were in 1997 when Asia experienced a severe economic blow. Philippine banks suffered with a 25% loan failure rate and are now very certain to have a lot of capital on hand. Consumer loan failure rates are still relatively high.
     
  3. tfa1957

    tfa1957 DI Forum Adept

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    Just to throw in my 2 cents worth (not as valuable as last year), the U.S. dollar has decreased in value across the board. It isn't the Peso increasing in value, it's the dollar decreasing in value. If you look at FX converter and do a history search, you'll see that the dollar has been slowly decreasing the past couple of years overall against all foreign currencies. It's really called having a nut job for a President and that figure head can cause less confidence in the dollar. This is historically true of all Presidents withlow standing in the world sense the dollar has been the main exchange currency in the world.
     
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