Situation in the Philippines and in our province

It would appear from the graph below that the situation in the Philippines (regarding reported cases on a per capita basis) is the second worst in the region, after Malaysia.
Within the Philippines the situation differs a lot when comparing on the provinces level. Whereas infections have been going from bad to worse in the NCR, the situation in Negros Oriental is a lot different (see graph below).
The most recent numbers seem to point to the start of a new upswing though. Let's hope that impression is wrong.

 

I do not think test results are an accurate indicator of the problem. They can be manipulated simply by doing more testing. A better indicator (albeit delayed) is the hospital isolation bed capacity.

We recently saw an example of this here in Dumaguete. The national government considered Manila a higher priority for vaccination than the provinces. Dumaguete was not on the priority list for vaccinations and the covid infection rate was increasing. The local DOH temporarily brought in additional testing resources from Cebu. An extreme increase in testing showed that the increasing infection rate in Dumaguete was the worst in the nation. Viola! Dumaguete was added to the high priority list for vaccinations. This increased priority list was called NCR +10. This is the spike and subsequent decrease in infections shown on the graph that you referenced.

It is possible we witnessed true political mastery.

10 cities outside 'NCR Plus' added to vaccine priority list
https://www.rappler.com/nation/cities-outside-ncr-plus-added-covid-19-vaccine-priority-list

https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1144810

The hospital capacity is a better indicator of how well the community is managing the problem. There is a balance between the economy and the overwhelming of medical resources. Now that we have a vaccine, the balance can start tilting more towards the economy. The at-risk population has had their chance to be vaccinated. If they have decided to not get vaccinated then the rest of the working population should not have to suffer in order to protect them. Open up the economy to the extent that the medical resources can manage and let the anti-vaxers get sick and suffer the consequences.

We can expect an upswing as a result of opening the economy and the variants. The current hospital occupancy is low.

 

I know you are a smart guy but you have no evidence that the very short-term gain of vaccination (a gain needing boosting after only 6 months) is greater than any long-term effects. We have to hope there are no serious long-term effects but we currently have no evidence.

Anti-vaxxers are usually regarded as those who refuse all vaccines - in the case of Covid there are many people who have had a host of vaccines in their lifetime but are refusing Covid due to the speed with which vaccines were produced and the absence of long term evidence. They should be termed anti-Covid-vaxxers or perhaps 'cautious' and only in years to come will we know if they made the right or wrong choice.

 

.[/QUOTE] only in years to come will we know if they made the right or wrong choice.[/QUOTE]

It seems to be evident that vaccines enable a higher rate of survival so "right choice"

 

I respectfully disagree. The additional testing started on May 31. The wave in that period had already started to build significantly before that date. It wasn't caused by the additional testing, it's the other way around. At most we could conclude that the additional testing made that wave rise a bit faster in the days after May 31 than would otherwise have been the case.

We agree that the ratio of occupied beds (ward and icu) should be an important factor in decisions about lockdowns, travel restrictions etc.
However, if the NCR experiences are anything to go by, then (lack of) government budget to assist those who lost their source of income because of lockdown measures seem more decisive than hospital occupancy when deciding to loosen restrictions. (Hospital bed occupancy in the NCR is anything but low).

In my opinion, with the current situation in our province, even though I wouldn't call a current 40% occupancy rate "low", I would support allowing more businesses to open, but combined with a complete stop to flights in and out of the airport, halt all travel to/from Cebu (except for crucial supplies) and stringent border controls on land.

 

What you say is somewhat true (no evidence about long term effects of vaccination); I say somewhat because the large scale phase 3 testing of vaccines happened already about a year ago; one would expect there to be at least some measure of delayed effect on people's health among the test subjects if there would be a serious adverse long term effect.

What we do know is that there is a serious risk of long covid after catching the illness.
So I still say I'll live with the unlikely long term effect of vaccination rather than risk long covid.

Forgive my scepticism regarding an attempt to distinguish between anti-vaxxers in general and covid anti-vaxxers.
I'm thinking there's a very very large overlap there, and, to me in both cases it's people who don't trust science.

 

Actually they shipped to Cebu, Bacolod, and to a city a little ways away from Bacolod. It was interesting to see, because Bacolod and Negros Occidental had an outbreak at the time too.

 

I agree with your skeptism on that and there's been time on the Phase 3. The long term serious effects is a stalwart argument of the anti-vax crowd, along with the quick development. I have nothing against being skeptical if there's a time limit to it, and recognition that the vaccines are effective. If they're observing mask protocols that's a good sign. The antivax include a lot of antimask in the crowd

 

Well, Silliman made an additional 17 ICU beds, and med staff were brought in from Cebu to help. But there may not be spare staff this time. I hesitate to think of what a Delta wave here would look like. I think they did a very good job this last time. A delta wave should max out the beds and strain the entire system. The stat studies indicate you're twice as likely to be hospitalized with Delta, but the showing for increased virulence seems weak. Unvaxxed were 5x more likely to catch, and 29 times more likely to be hospitalized in an LA study, so I look with foreboding at a Delta wave through here. I think we've done well so far. Crossing my fingers.

 

I would like to know how ANYONE can state that long-term effects of what are basically new and rushed vaccines are "unlikely". As you know, scientists deal in facts and not guesses. In my view long-term negative effects are uncertain but possible. No serious long-term negative effects are also uncertain but possible. So I am giving both possibilities and not merely guessing. Vaccination with new and rushed vaccines is really an experiment, with those being vaccinated the test group. The hypothesis is that vaccination will do more good than harm and in the short-term that has been proven (we already have the evidence) - BUT as we have not reached the long-term end of this experiment then we have no results to prove anything long-term.

There is a clear distinction between anti-vaxxers and anti-Covid-vaxxers: The former group mistrusts/refuses all vaccines and the latter group mistrust/refuses only ONE current vaccine. There may, of course, be people who have some other vaccines they mistrust or prefer not to have because of already-known side effects but most anti-Covid-vaxxers I know show caution only about Covid19 vaccines but have had a string of others.

And to say that ALL (???) people who are cautious about Covid19 vaccines "don't trust science" when it includes a number of scientists does not make sense - and some of these scientists were the first to warn of the dangers of mutations and the need to wear face masks for everyone (just read back on this Forum). I gained a school prize in science, an Honours Degree in microbiology (with a specialism in medical microbiology and especially viral diseases plus worked in a leading virus research institute) and I am very cautious - that is because I know that no long-term effects of anything can be known until we reach a reasonable long-term point (as with thalidomide, as with tobacco, as with alcohol). But it is not the scientist in me that worked that out - it is very obvious common sense that you cannot determine something until it happens. The world could end tomorrow but we don't know that yet as we have not yet reached tomorrow.