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The smallest possible sample

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Notmyrealname, Jan 17, 2021.

  1. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Just read this: "Last Wednesday, the Department of Health reported that the more infectious variant of the deadly virus has reached the Philippines after samples from a Filipino who arrived on a flight from the UAE posted positive genome sequencing results.

    Asked about the condition of the patient, [person X] said the Filipino was found to be asymptomatic and already recovering.

    "Hindi nga natin nailipat sa hospital e. This proves that while mas nakakahawa ang new variant, ang effect hindi naman mas grabe," she added.

    [Translation: We did not even transfer him to the hospital. This proves that while the new variant is more contagious, the effect is not more severe.]"

    So the conclusion that the effect of the new variant is not more severe is based on a sample of one! With that thinking the virus will be around these parts for years.
     
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  2. RR_biker

    RR_biker DI Senior Member Veteran Marines

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    Well, I see it this way, simple thinking: 1 + 0 = 1 .
     
  3. eskirvin

    eskirvin DI Member Blood Donor Veteran Navy

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    Perhaps they're just trying to tone down the fear with new studies emerging showing that lockdowns do not work to curtail the virus. I do find it hard to believe, but apparently it is true, that areas that lockdown show basically (what they call statistically insignificant) the same transmission rates as similar areas that do not lockdown. From what I've seen, the Philippines follows the rules of the government very closely, which with mask mandates, would have been enough to curtail the spread without the destruction of the economy.
     
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    OP
    Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    It must depend on how strictly the lockdown is followed. Every lockdown in the UK has resulted in a decline in the R value (transmission rate) only to climb again after rules are relaxed.

    I am still a great believer in masks as they are a version of 'personal lockdown' and their CORRECT use could have avoided many lockdowns - which, I accept, have very damaging side effects.
     
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  5. eskirvin

    eskirvin DI Member Blood Donor Veteran Navy

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    Masks are such an easy and successful way to curtail transmission. It is sad to see them not being used more often, worldwide. Here in Kuwait, the Kuwaitis' most popular mask implementation is the "chin diaper."
     
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  6. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    Source? Please let us review the foundation of your conclusions.

    The Philippines has successfully been using strict localized lockdowns on very limited locations successfully. These are not the general country wide lockdowns you may be referring to. In the Philippines puroks have been surrounded and locked down while everybody inside is provided food and all the people in the purok are tested. These at times have lasted as long as two weeks.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COVID-19_community_quarantines_in_the_Philippines
     
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  7. eskirvin

    eskirvin DI Member Blood Donor Veteran Navy

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    All of my conclusions were made before any study was done. Mask up, but otherwise do as I'd normally do.

    As for studies about lockdowns, just pick some terms and do a search, you'll find plenty. The one I looked at was all sciencey words about similar cultures, similar populations, and lockdowns, but there are many now.
     
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  8. Sedona

    Sedona DI Forum Adept

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    This seems to be a pretty comprehensive study:
    https://www.nature.com/articles/s41562-020-01009-0

    They conclude the most effective intervention: "The most effective NPIs include curfews, lockdowns and closing and restricting places where people gather in smaller or large numbers for an extended period of time."

    They found that measures aimed at disinfecting and cleaning surfaces in public places was ineffective contrary to what WHO says.
     
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  9. Cerne

    Cerne DI Forum Adept

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    Anything in Nature is going to be good science. Well done Sedona for finding this.
     
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  10. john boy

    john boy DI Forum Luminary

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    Just heard on the news that the UK Government is thinking of offering people found to have the virus, £500 to self isolate!
    Can you imagine something on those lines happening in PI?
     
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