US currency exchange rate to the Philippine Peso is going up nicely for us expats. It tipped over 50php-1USD and is put now just above 49.5php-1usd. Its expected to keep climbing as well at least until the end of the month. As usual however come end of the month it may drop off for a week before possibly climbing back up. For those looking to exchange now before the end of the month may be the time for a short range exchange and come December we may reach a golden time (depending as well how the electoral college vote goes for Trump or shenagins take place that would likely create a negative stability in an unsure future). I'm wondering if we can reach the 52-55 range again that was here in 2006 before the plummet happened.
I'd agree but hold some reservations. I'd say that will depend on how much balls Reps and Trump has to push through his early agenda in his first 30-180 days and if Dems are able to put forth a hardcore resistance to virtually everything major Trump has plans for. If Trump gets stonewalled and it takes some time to get his early agenda pieces going it could create instability. However if he does what he has said he would do early on I'd think that 52-55 rate is possible. Of course I personally think Trump has the balls but I don't have much hope for Reps in Congress having any balls under Ryan and a number of the issues will take Congress's support while others Trump could do freehand style.
Is it just the USD to PHP rate or are other rates going in the favor of the USD as well? As I recall the PHP began to hit the shitter (for Filipinos anyways) as soon as Duterte was elected and started having diarrhea of the mouth. One thing you have to remember is that exchange rates are also tied to inflation, among many other things. If you start to see 55 to the dollar expect to see your San Miguel prices (and everything else) go up along with it.
The Dollar is increasing in value against all currencies, But recent articles state that the Ph peso is particularly vulnerable partly because of uncertainty about Duterte and foreign investors pulling out of the Ph stock market. Since Nov-9 the dollar has increased 10% in most markets and as much as 15% in others. The Mexican peso has fallen 12% against the dollar. Now Mexican companies are telling Trump they want to bid on building the boarder wall using Mexican labor and materials. Liberals have sold the lie about insulting the Latino's and Republicans have never had the balls to play that game of chicken till now. Trump called their bluff and he is winning.
Of course they want to bid on construction contracts. EVERYONE wants to win a government contract. Problem with this is that we are still paying for an unnecessary wall.
A wall may be unnecessary but we need a way to keep people out. I had a friend who was in the Mexican army and he told me how Mexico secures it's border with Guatemala...not a hell of a lot different than how I would secure the US border. The wall is a much kinder and gentler solution and I think it should be tried first.
A wall will not stop them from crossing the border. I'd much rather cross a section of border with a wall than a wide open area monitored by something like Aerostat balloons that have cameras that can see 10-20km out and automatically pan to movement with a heat signature. There are cheaper options out there than those balloons such as seismic sensors. A wall is just old and "stupid" technology, we can do much better AMD at a fraction of the cost.
A more accurate assessment isn't that its due to Duterte but the Philippines pricey to get into stock market and its uncertainty caused by many years of problems. But yes the USD is rising globally under speculation of the US economy growing and job growth again under Trump. I'd be expecting that the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas probably is starting to prepare to raise interest rates to try and stem it from going past 50php yet if they are successful this time around will be interesting to watch. Philippine market in a funk as peso slides to 2008 crisis level | Emerging Markets, Foreign Exchange | Bloomberg Professional if care to read about it. I'm just not so sure one could put blame on Duterte. But then also the Peso weakening for a period can be a very good thing as it boosts the foreign currencies valuation in the Philippines which supports more lower and middle class families while most common daily products Filipino's used are produced locally.
I say we send all the DHS f_#%s down there, we are paying them anyway and they do jack for airport security.