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We have been lucky so far

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Dutchie, Aug 13, 2020.

  1. Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    Based on the latest DOH numbers (august 12), Negros Oriental has recorded 155 cases of covid-19 in total, of which 49 are currently active.
    Relative to the population size, that means a total infection rate of around 0.01% for the province. In comparison, Cebu City has an infection rate of 1.0%, and Cebu province is at 0.37% overall, while the NCR is at 0.64%.
    Internationally, the Philippines still has a relatively low infection rate of 0.13% overall, USA (1.6%), Brazil (1.5%) and a whole bunch of others are much worse.
    The rate at which infections are growing in the Philippines is worrisome though, about one third of all cases are from the current month of August.

    Almost all the cases in Negros Oriental can be traced to people travelling into the province from elsewhere. Almost all, but not quite all. Last month there was a situation with an elderly lady who tested positive after her death, but who had no travel history whatsoever. There may have been more of these unexplained cases, that I missed.
    However, these (hopefully very few) unexplained cases are the ones deserving most attention, because they point to something we should all be concerned about, which in covid terminology is called "local transmission".

    All in all though, one can argue (as I do) that we have been very lucky so far, and that keeping travel down (ferries/airport, border with Negros Occidental) is a crucial part of why we have been so lucky.
    Unfortunately, Negros Occidental has not been so lucky, they currently report about 1,000 cases (including Bacolod), which means the infection rate there is at 0.04%, or about 3 times as high as in Negros Oriental.

    However, I don't think we will remain so lucky, the Philippine government has already indicated that money is running out and that people need to get back to work. If that would imply (as I fear) increased travel, then we may soon see a much worse situation than today.
     
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  2. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    Probably a good idea. Maintaining the current rules and restrictions will cause far more suffering and take far more lives than this virus ever could have. I think we need to isolate and quarantine those at the highest risk of mortality and let everyone else get on with their lives (not an easy thing to do and many people will absolutely hate being singled out but it seems the alternative is to sit around and watch the world burn). It's just not worth destroying every economy in the world and likely causing governments to collapse...which would most likely start wars and cause even more lives to be lost. With the unemployment rate going up and people start having more problems just meeting basic needs, especially in third world countries, the breaking point is not that far in the future.
     
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  3. OP
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    Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    Balancing economic activity and public health is a difficult problem in the face of this pandemic.
    While I agree that allowing economic collapse will ultimately cause a lot of suffering also, I disagree that the option to just quarantine at-risk people and do away with all rules and restrictions for everyone else is the answer.
    Those most at risk still need food, medical care etc., so they will still come into unavoidable contact with others (helpers, nurses, doctors).
    If you look at the infection rate among hospital staff already now, with rules and restrictions in place for everyone, it is already having an incapacitating effect on hospitals. How would that develop if all rules and regulations were abandoned? I'll spell it out for you: it will lead to hospital closures all over the place.
    How would a healthy younger person who breaks a leg or needs urgent appendicitis surgery like that?

    No, the answer must be to allow some unavoidable economic damage, like for the airlines and tourism/hospitality industry, while yes, getting most everyone else back to work (but I think most have already done just that), but getting rid of restrictions and rules sounds like Bolsonaro (president of Brazil) to me.

    I don't see why governments would collapse or wars would start because of a temporary 15-20% loss of economic activity (until we can all get vaccinated).
    What seems like a bad idea though is governments declaring "lack of funds" at a time when they should be borrowing money to stimulate the economy.
     
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  4. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    Who suggested to do away with "all rules and restrictions"? Pretty sure I said "current" rules and restrictions.
     
  5. OP
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    Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    Then please enlighten us with your ideas for the replacement of those current rules?
     
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  6. Show Pony

    Show Pony DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Taiwan has done very well by accounts I have read.

    Everyone wore masks,
    Everyone social distanced,
    Everyone washed their hands frequently.

    Apparently they did not shutdown their economy.
    The keyword above seems to be Everyone.

    edit: I believe they had a good system for contact tracing.
     
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    Last edited: Aug 13, 2020
  7. Dutchjob

    Dutchjob DI Member

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    I prefer an situation where covid-19 goes around and we try to manage the infections with science based rules then a third world country where economy collapsed and people will go around hungry because no more funds to feed them. And make no mistake, that is where we are heading sitting like a myxomatosis rabbit looking in a headlight waiting for a vaccine.

    As long as you can prevent meeting lots of people indoor for longer time the chance to get infected is still neglectable on this island. Hopefully most people can get back to work and the cheapest way to keep us safe on the island is to test and quarantine everybody who enters. But the last part will need to be done thoroughly and if this is something we can trust to be done... Heard from an befriended policeman a test cost the local government 8000php. This is around double compared what a test costs in europe.

    Draw your own conclusions if we will loose from the virus or corruption. This is an ongoing epidemic killing more people then any virus disease does.
     
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  8. DavyL200

    DavyL200 DI Forum Luminary ★ Global Mod ★ ★ Moderator ★ Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    The biggest issue i see is dicipline here. There is none!
     
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  9. Happy Camper

    Happy Camper DI Senior Member Restricted Account Infamous Showcase Reviewer

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    Read an ANC post yesterday that the President said that regardless of the quarantine restrictions people can go out and buy food because he said the government is broke and can't feed the people.
     
  10. Mark K

    Mark K DI Member

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    The big problem here is so many people don't seem to care.

    They will wear face masks in the city centre, but as soon as you step outside to any barangay the masks come off.

    There is a little social distancing in places where it's compulsory and monitored, and almost none of this where it isn't.

    The majority say they don't want to their kids to go back to school but will happily let them all round outside and play with others in the local community.

    Many Filipinos have told me they are not worried about the virus, just being fined by authorities.

    They abide by the ridiculous backrider policy in downtown, but go a few km outside and there are 3 or 4 on a bike without masks, shields or helmets.

    Parties/ gatherings everywhere, as long as there are no police nearby.

    Might as well just let everyone get back to normal and get on with life. At least then they might stop asking me if they can borrow some money!
     
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