If this prediction comes true then the World economy really will be a basket case - and some poor countries, such as the Philippines, are going to go down the drain.

Let's all hope it is incorrect. Oh, and buy gold.

 

Moving to the province by end of year, stocking pantry and hunker down...

 

It seems to me that the world is faced with two basic choices.
To wear masks and reduce close contact in which case the rate of deaths and infections can be reduced to, hopefully, the point where the medical system can handle the numbers by which time, again hopefully, a vaccine is readily available to everyone, and that is one hell a lot of vaccine.
Or ...
let the virus run free, infect everyone, treat those lucky enough to find a hospital bed if there are enough medical stall around to treat them, and again, hopefully find a vaccine which will prevent further spread and hopefully cure those that have it, although generally, a vaccine is not a curative, but is a preventative. The latter would result in the death rate seen in the early 1900's when over 100 million died. This time possibly well over that figure because of the larger world population.
I think that is the stark truth and at the moment we are somewhere in between.

 

One more thing might be good to mention, the IMHE model tries to predict all infections with Covid-19, not just the ones caught by testing, but it remains a quite sobering prediction. By year end about 25% of the population in the Philippines would have been infected in their reference scenario. This is similar to the prediction for the southern USA and NY state, and more than double the predicted percentages for most of Europe and the rest of the USA.
These predictions would put Covid-19 firmly in the top 3 of causes of death for the entire year 2020 worldwide.

 

Yes, but this is not a choice in modern society.

One could argue that there are casualties in war and a few old people is a small price to pay in the war against the pandemic.

One could argue that we would have been much better off if we simply let anybody over 65 fend for themselves without medical care. We would have avoided the enormous medical costs, the costs to shut down our economy and we would save again by not having to pay the ones who died their retirement.

But this is not a choice in today's society.

Sadly the spectrum of options and the resulting outcomes was not communicated well to society so there are many quacks creating misinformation to fill in the void.

 

Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) is run by Bill Gates. You can decide for yourself if you think he is a credible source.

 

IHME’s projections have remained wholly inconsistent throughout the pandemic, particularly for “vastly overstating projections of regular and ICU hospital beds needed,” as Breitbart News detailed.

In early April, the IHME model indicated that only 13,010 regular hospital beds were available across the state of New York — a significant error, as Gov. Andrew Cuomo (D) announced 90,000 available hospital beds, roughly 77,000 more than the model stated.

That same month, IHME dramatically dropped peak hospitalization projections for the United States by 34 percent over the span of just three days, revising its forecast from 86,479 total hospital beds needed to 56,831. IHME attributed the dramatic reduction to its own inaccurate prediction after observing “actual hospitalization data” from April 10-12.

 

The IMHE receives a sizable part of its funding from The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, among many other donations. Bill Gates doesn't "run" the IMHE, the Gates Foundation isn't even represented in the board of directors of IMHE.

 

Yes Dutchie, there are people out there who will believe anything they are told that suits their agenda but will never search for the truth. You caught him ou on that one which he could have found out himself if he had bothered to look.