Consequences for APOR 191

Yes, but... By this reasoning, every respiratory virus should evolve (or devolve) into the common cold--which is a cocktail of viruses--so as to infect and reinfect masses of people indefinitely. But that is only in theory.

 

A "cocktail of viruses" gives the impression that each incident of the common cold is due to this "cocktail" - 'cocktail' being a mixture. In fact, there are more than 200 types, or strains, of virus (mostly rhinoviruses) giving symptoms which are termed 'the common cold' in the same way that 'cancer' is a term for a 'condition' caused by many different things, including viruses. In both cases each individual case will probably have a separate cause (e.g. only one type of virus, one cancer trigger), although it is possible a person is coincidentally infected or affected by more than one.

There is no reason why every respiratory virus should mutate to be a cause only of the common cold as respiratory viruses target different areas of the body - the common cold being a fan of the nose. As viruses are principally nucleic acid, there are ways in which their nucleic acid can combine with other nucleic acids, from the host and from other viruses within a host, but that new combination might then not code correctly for the protective coat, so be ineffective at attaching to new cells and never replicate itself.

 

<snip>Coronaviruses are a group of related RNA viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans and birds, they cause respiratory tract infections that can range from mild to lethal. Mild illnesses in humans include some cases of the common cold (which is also caused by other viruses, predominantly rhinoviruses), while more lethal varieties can cause SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. In cows and pigs they cause diarrhea, while in mice they cause hepatitis and encephalomyelitis. There are as yet no vaccines or antiviral drugs to prevent or treat human coronavirus infections.<snip>

I think there's a link enough there that it goes beyond theory, it's fine to be skeptical, but most of what I read thinks it will go the way of common cold or flu. It may roam around the world for years. Who knows? All educated spec. Right now we should focus on what's down the road. We're heading into sizeable out break territory. Me no like.

Added: I may have confused flu and the cold.

 

The Daily News Journal shared a post.
#NewsBite: Here's the latest breakdown of the active COVID-19 cases in Negros Oriental as of today, November 3, 2020.

There are 141 active COVID-19 cases in the province.

Guihulngan City has the city with the most number of active cases at 57, followed by Bayawan City with 32, and Dumaguete City at 10.

Tayasan has nine active cases, Sta. Catalina town has eight, Zamboanguita has seven, La Libertad has five, Ayungon has three, while Bais City and Siaton town have two each.

Tanjay City, Bacong, Mabinay, and Sibulan have one case each.

A patient from San Carlos City, Negros Occidental is still being admitted at the Silliman University Medical Center (SUMC), while a soldier of the Philippine Army's 302nd Infantry Brigade is also under isolation at the Negros Oriental Provincial Hospital.

The total case count in Negros Oriental is now at 372, with 141 active cases, 222 recoveries, and nine deaths.

 

I have no problem with that, but that's future. Are you a bio-scientist? If so, unfair! :P We have nine deaths so far? What do you think of the targeted testing? I'm not even sure how that is done. I would assume that you radiate tests one or two contacts from the target, and follow the positives. Dunno. Tired.

 

What am I? Many would give you a variety of answers to that one - perhaps I might scrape one that is flattering (even if I have to write it myself).

My background is a Degree in Microbiology with a specialism in the medical side (we could choose between medical or industrial - I chose medical but then benefited from the alcohol the industrial students produced on a grand scale!). My main aim in studying microbiology was to concentrate on viruses as that had been an interest of mine since the age of 11/12 - I subsequently worked in a virus research laboratory. This was all many years ago and, as they say, I probably have forgotten more than I knew! It did give me the insight, though, to buy a supply of N95 masks in 2011 and bring them with me to the Philippines in 2015. It was always a case of 'when, not if' for a major viral pandemic. I retain an overall understanding of many medical issues, not only those caused by pathogens, but even with that, I still research before I post here because we only know what we think we know and I want to avoid giving any false information. Some may think it unfair or unkind to challenge some postings but if I say motorbikes run on potatoes then I would expect those who know better to correct me (although I suspect there is a motorbike somewhere which does run on potatoes, or the alcohol distilled from them!). On a major issue such as health, I find it difficult to ignore inaccurate information as that may have a serious impact on a person's actions and consequently their health (I constantly rebuffed claims by some Forum members that it was pointless to wear masks, until that eventually died out because they had to). If a posting is very full of inaccuracies then I let it go as I guess most people realise anyway, otherwise it is a bit like a teacher filling a student's book with red marks - both pointless and demotivating. So you may say I have an unfair advantage, but no more than any other member here writing about a topic in which they have specialist knowledge and experience.

I think it great that people who perhaps knew little about science or diseases, specifically virus diseases, are now interested enough to read up on the subject - maybe after the pandemic is 'controlled' (whatever form that will be in) we will have billions more scientists.

 

It is not something I know much about because it does not affect me. I assume the logic is that if person A tests positive for the virus then you find A's contacts over a period of time from when that person may have been excreting the virus. You quarantine and test as many of those contacts as you can trace. But these contacts also will have had contacts, so you do the same q&t for them. You continue tracing contacts of contacts until you have no more positives. However, I can see it is likely some contacts originating from A will have had contacts with other infected individuals, especially in a 'hot zone' - but that would not matter, as long as their contacts are traced. Some countries are doing massive contact tracing and some very little, or zero. I note that big places, like malls, record the time a person entered but not the time they left - they don't know how long a person who turns out to be a spreader of the virus was there. Until they get an answer to that question, they would have a huge task in tracing everyone who was there (perhaps within a period of 5 hours or more after the spreader entered) and then all their contacts plus all the contacts in every other place that spreader has been. It is theoretically possible, but is it done efficiently in most countries? I doubt it.

 

I think this is where cell phone apps come in. After an individual is identified as a spreader, the app alerts you (and maybe the authorities) when you have been in contact with them (using the plural "them" for no-gender singular).

 

The Daily News Journal
shared a post.
JUST IN: Negros Oriental has six new COVID-19 infections, provincial IATF ground commander Dr. Liland Estacion said in a press briefing this morning.
Four of the new cases are from Bayawan City, one is from Guihulngan City, and one is La Libertad Municipal Treasurer Elenita Caballero, who gave her consent to disclose her name publicly to help contact tracing efforts.
Six new recoveries were also reported: five in Dumaguete City and one in La Libertad.
The total case count in Negros Oriental is now at 378, with 142 active cases, 228 recoveries and nine deaths. #NewsBite | via Raffy Cabristante, 106.3 Yes The Best News Editor

 

But doesn't that rely on the person then going into voluntary quarantine or showing up for testing? In many countries people have shown a great disregard for their own safety (usually based on "I'm all right Jack, I'm young") and for the safety of others (again based on "I'm all right Jack....."!). Relying on people doing things voluntarily is a colander, but with the scale of the problem it is perhaps the best we can get.