July 2016 was 58. Twice since then has been near 75. Around 2008 was 108 - will we ever see that again? The UK Covid situation v that of the Philippines should have the rate at about 80 (I guess) - but the sovereign debt level of the UK is now very high.

 

If I may offer a build to these points - DON’T GET A DIVORCE(S)

 

Price inflation causes wage inflation, causing more price inflation, more wage inflation .... we all the know the process. The Philippines will probably not have huge wage inflation, for reasons we know, but more starving people.

 

With OSW's realising where their future lies and lack of retirees returning home to Philippines, add low tourism, something will have to give, before we have yet another disaster in yet another country! ( We are also experiencing price increases here in UK plus some shortages of commodities )

 

For sure that deflation is the greater enemy - people simply won't buy certain products if they think those item will be cheaper in the future!

But I don't see how wages can grow and not affect inflation in the product or service ( see https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-u-s-wages-gives-inflation-debate-a-new-twist "An unexpected jump in U.S. wages has given financial markets a new reason to worry that higher inflation may be here to stay.").

It is usual for inflation to lead to interest rates rising and few over-indebted economies are going to be able to handle that. But governments caused over-indebtedness due to money printing and pushed people to become speculators rather than investors (including savers) - it there a 'new normal' that is going to sort the problem without the world economy crashing around us? Even governments themselves are going to have a hard time with the level of sovereign debt they now possess.

Interesting times ahead and probably not too far away.

 

This is a relatively recent phenomenon. It is a result of lower labor cost overseas. This lower labor cost keeps a downward pressure on wages for jobs that can be off-shored.

More broadly, Fed Chair Jerome Powell has repeatedly argued that the once-close link between wages and inflation has broken down in recent years.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...-u-s-wages-gives-inflation-debate-a-new-twist

This breakdown is a problem because it results in the poor getting poorer during times of inflation. On the other hand raising wages results in sending more jobs overseas. Somehow our economy needs to figure out how to reduce costs.

Much of this inflation is in capital assets (Land, homes, stocks, etc.) Healthcare and education costs have run amok as well. Gen Z will have a much harder time raising a family.