New World Order?

Interesting viewpoint on geopolitics and where the world is heading. This is an America centric discussion, but does talk about other countries, like China, Russia and Europeans. Lots on Russia-Ukraine war.



Thoughts?

 

Well, for starters I don't like an America centric discussion when the subject is global, especially when the thing that's going to "end" will be the "everybody looks at the USA to react to things happening".
America (or rather the USA, part of North America, they habitually monopolize the name of two combined continents) represents only around 4% of the world population. A powerful country, sure, with a large economy, but the EU and China both have similar sized economies.
The video has a clickbait title and subtitle, and to be sure, I didn't watch it.
I will throw in my two cents though, the World is not ending. Europe will in the medium term increase its spending on defense a lot, just in case the USA elects another populist president who thinks Putin is a nice guy and Nato isn't needed anymore.
The collapse of globalization won't happen either, there will be impact of countries realizing they better not depend too much on politically unstable or unsavory regimes in the economic sense, but that won't bring about a collapse in my view.
The USA might go protectionist after 2024 (wouldn't be the first time), but that doesn't mean everybody else will follow suit.

 

Clickbait is a text or a thumbnail link that is designed to attract attention and to entice users to follow that link and read, view, or listen to the linked piece of online content, being typically deceptive, sensationalized, or otherwise misleading

I assure that my purpose is not any of the above, but is intended to share a viewpoint and make one think. I personally think it makes sense. If you listen to the video, you will see it's a thoughtful analysis from an expert on Geopolitics. Of course, no one can predict the future, but his explanation for why he believes what he believes is insightful. It's an opportunity for you to (maybe) learn something, not clickbait. It's hard to learn when you don't even listen and even worse when you come to conclusions without even listening. After listening, you may still feel the same, but at least it will be an educated opinion. The video is not about the world ending. It's about things like supply chains, demographics, security, etc and I'll leave it at that. Cheers.

 

Interesting and Zeihan has an extremely wide knowledge on a range of subjects - problem is that we don't know if he is correct on any of them. The point he makes about Russia having to seal the seven gaps before their population declines too far to mount such military actions leads to Russia having to attack Poland and the Baltic States after it has finished with Ukraine. That is suicide for Russia as their military has proved to be very weak - Zeihan agrees that they will fail miserably against NATO (which will be involved in any of those scenarios above) and may have no choice but to use nukes as they will see an existential threat. The alternative view is that if they did seal those gaps and then their population, and thus military, falls significantly, then how do they hold them? In fact, how do they hold Ukraine if they 'defeat' it as almost every citizen will become a 'soldier'. They would need to leave a significant number of troops there and yet go on to fight NATO, knowing they will lose and knowing they have to resort to nukes and their own destruction? Maybe Putin is crazy enough for that but I am not sure he holds all the cards in the pack (regime) - maybe just the Jokers.

The hub of Zeihan's views is based on changing demographics and it is true that the pyramid of high numbers of young and low numbers of elderly is now being turned on its head in so many countries (China, Russia, S. Korea and many European Nations, for example) - I was not aware that China now realises it overestimated its current population by 400 million and so either I misheard or he misheard or any data from China is worthless anyway. But he seems not to say anything about robots replacing humans in many tasks (including manufacturing which he excludes except for the use of 3D printers) - I don't hear much currently about robotics (except for sex robots, which the trashy newspapers I read like to write about) but I assumed there are considerable developments in that field, especially in those countries good at technology (and also with the urgent issue of the inverted pyramid), such as Japan and South Korea. Is he correct that automation will help agriculture but less so manufacturing?

It may be fanciful to think this way but what will happen in a world where robots take over manufacturing and agriculture and decline the populations further because people (especially men I guess - but maybe not) will prefer a robot as a partner (not asking for material things except a drop of oil (lubricant) now and again and never having a headache!). That could be a perfect balance - less children being born but less adults needed. A pity that there is such a lag in human growth that this will not sync well enough. As in many things, taking everything out of humans hands could be a planet-saver.

This inversion of the demographic pyramid has major knock-on issues for finance, he states, due to increasing pension liabilities and yet a lower tax base to pay them. This is just one of the financial issues IMO of concern to the World now. He mentions high inflation and thinks it will be with us for about 5 years but says nothing about the cumulative effect of that on people or the issue of interest rate rises needed to curb it (which few major economies can carry out because they have allowed the 'recovery' since 2008 to be based on the accumulation of debt by individuals (who they would squeeze with little hesitation) and their own governments (which they are afraid to squeeze)). I see this as major economies having a set of hammers but they can't use them for fear of hitting themselves. Instead they spent years stoking the fires with bits of paper they printed.

It is a sound idea of more local small-scale manufacturing (as mass production declines due to these demographic issues) and this is where he places 3D printers as of great value (such as in printing car parts locally but with far fewer parts required). But before that happens, the World faces such pressures of inflation (probably stagflation) and depression that it may be many years before it recovers - it may even not be the World we know today. Already stock markets (which have become monsters of speculation soaking up the money printing) are falling and I think we have just seen the tip of that, plus housing to come next. Speculation almost always ends in a crash and this crash may be so big it fundamentally changes the World - driving many people into poverty and hunger and resulting in social unrest.

I can easily envisage a New World Order but I am pleased I won't be part of it (for long) - and what is going to happen if Zeihan is correct and within this decade China (and other nations) collapse? Will that remain localised? Highly unlikely I think. Globalisation has taken decades to form and seeing it dismantled in a few years (if that long) is not going to be a pretty picture.

 

See @Notmyrealname for his synopsis and own opinions. He has invested a significant amount of time. I don't agree with some of his conclusions and some of his interpretations, but to each his own. I'm not posting this to debate or to argue and that's why I won't comment on NMRN comments. That said, I did take the time to read them and to listen to the video. Some may listen to the video and say hogwash, some may like it and gain a new perspective and some won't even listen, because they already have already made up their mind. I'm cautious to spend too much time on something that requires more than a few sentences (see previous posters thoughts) for a person with an attention span of less than an hour, since I don't feel I can't do it justice in a few sentences. If you aren't willing to invest the time, why should I? I posted this because I found it interesting and introduced ideas that I hadn't thought of. I would imagine a retired guy like yourself could find the time. I suspect your comment could be an attempt to waste my time and that you really have no interest based on your like of the previous posters comments. I don't think I can do it justice in a few sentences but at the risk of exceeding your attention span I will try. I have seen several of his videos and it's been a little while so I may mix up some of the content.
In no particular order:
-Why demographics matters. Not enough you people to support the older generations.
-Ukraine war and why Putin is invading. Primarily for security reasons which he explains (7 gaps).
-What other countries might Putin invade? Countries to close the gaps, which include NATO countries
-Deglobalization, the break down of supply chains and what that means to various countries in the future.
-Shrinking demographics and the longevity of Russia and China. Particularly tough for China (millions starving to death)
-Small snippet on bitcoin and a digital currency
-Why is America is in a good position relative to other countries because we have significant natural resources unlike other countries that only manufacture or exist higher up in the supply chain.
-Why Russia is on its last leg and Putin is unlikely to back down even in defeat. He could go nuclear as a last resort.
-Farming in the US can be more efficient by using technology to increase efficiencies to meet our nutritional requirements.
-Gas is going to get a lot more expensive.
-Lots of other stuff, this is an interviewer asking him questions, not a presentation so he jumps around. He has other videos that focus on specific aspects of what I mention above.

See you in 10 years.....

 

Now that's what I call optimistic
Well I certainly today dont have an hour to spare to watch the video.
Two things do concern me though that was in the news..... Automated Agriculture would be proned to hackers and the real present day threat that prevention of stored grain in both Russia and Ukraine does not reach the ports soon will cause mayhem in the poorer countries around the world......See you later ( but hopefully in ten years too )
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...e-intensify-Russia-Ukraine-war-continues.html

 

Waste of time. This is just another confident, but not competent, person with a good grasp of the vocabulary who is successful at dramatic babbling. His babble attracts readers/viewers to which he peddles adds.

I will address only one issue. His reasoning for the Russia Ukraine war.
(37:18) He believes it is to secure geographic gaps where future armies can move through and attack Russia.
This is thinking from the past. It is not relevant now and surely not in the future. Atomic weapons made these gaps irrelevant a long time ago. Future wars will be fought with airborne precision weapons/drones/loitering munitions. The geographical gaps will not be relevant.

The reasons Russia invaded Ukraine are as follows:
1) Eliminate a pissed off enemy by absorbing them.
2) Water for Crimea.
3) Control more natural and agricultural resources.
4) Grab some cultural historically significant real estate. (Odessa, etc)
5) Have to do it now before tanks and artillery become obsolete because of loitering munitions. (drones)

When the Soviet Union disintegrated there was a very close vote where Crimea decided to be a part of Ukraine. The problem was that Russia has a large navy and needed the naval base in Sevastopol. Sevastopol is a big naval base in Crimea that includes large repair facilities. Dry docks, etc. So Russia leased Sevastopol from Ukraine.

At the 20th NATO Summit (aka 2008 Bucharest Summit) NATO made the following statement with regards to Georgia and Ukraine: "these countries will become members of NATO".
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_Bucharest_summit
Now think about this. If Ukraine joins NATO, Russia is going to be leasing their most significant naval base from NATO.

Ukraine has said it won't let Russia's Black Sea Fleet stay at the port of Sevastopol once its lease there expires in 2017. This gives Russia eight years to convince Ukraine to change its position;
https://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/opinion/09iht-edstrauss.1.19226335.html

In time Russia absorbed Crimea and the Sevastopol naval base.

This pissed off the Ukrainians who then blocked the canal that delivered fresh water from the Dnieper river to Crimea.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/North_Crimean_Canal

Meanwhile Ukraine began retooling their military with future advanced weapons like their new Neptune missile (the one that sunk the Moskova) and drones. Ukraine had entered into an agreement with Turkey to co-produce drones.

Russia has many talented engineers but limited resources for advance weaponry. There are no advanced computer chip foundries in Russia. Russia can make advanced weapons but they cannot produce large quantities of them.

These modern weapons (missiles and drones) will make "big iron" weapons obsolete. (Tanks and ships.)

So Putin had a choice. Attempt to absorb Ukraine now before they acquire the advanced weaponry or wait until later when Ukraine is flush with new missiles and drones and decides to push Russia out of Crimea.

The night of the Bolshevik revolution Lenin said today was too soon and tomorrow will be too late.

Putin was a year too late. Had he invaded last year Russia would have been in a much better position.

In March 2021, the Ukrainian Navy obtained the first training missile battery of the RK-360MC Neptune.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-360_Neptune

After successful testing of the aircraft, the Ukrainian Navy placed a separate order for six TB2s, to be delivered in 2021, according to navy officials.[101] Meanwhile, Turkish and Ukrainian officials announced the establishment of a joint venture to produce 48 additional Bayraktar TB2s in Ukraine.[102] The first batch of the Bayraktar TB2 complex was delivered to the Navy in July 2021.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Baykar_Bayraktar_TB2#Ukraine_and_2022_Russian_invasion

 

What Dutchie said....

 

Well here's a thought.....
View attachment upload_2022-5-21_11-12-39.png