Best Posts in Thread: Possible cluster in Bayawan?

Just a followup, a confirmatory test on the last deceased person also came back positive for Covid. The neighborhood also seems to be under the type of granular lockdown that Notmyrealname described.
A little clarification, we generically consider our family members who live around the Pagatban bridge as living in Bayawan, but this since the river is the boundry, I think this area is technically Basay. It's an out of the way but not really remote area with only one dirt path in and out from the highway up by the bridge. A lot of the access is via the Pagatban river.
I don't claim to be an expert on the area, but I've visited it several times over the years, and it always struck me as a scenic, Filipino fishing village. The locals call the area "By By" (not sure if that's spelled right). The sandy bay front beach is actually light brown/"golden" colored, which I was told was a legacy of massive copper or gold mining upstream during Marcos' time. In better times, not a bad little place for someone to visit if they want to get off the beaten path

 

There's definitely underreporting.
1. There's delayed reporting, because of the too big lag between testing and results. It seems the laboratory at Negros Oriental Hospital has been out of test kits for a long time already, either that or they are not functional for another reason. The other laboratory (at Silliman) isn't included in the reporting by the DOH at all. It may well be that our province is relying on laboratories in Cebu again, which obviously adds to the lag.
2. There's misinformation being spread, even by official sources. The graph above suggests 593 new cases in our province on October 19. For the same date, the DOH reports 211 new cases:

These numbers can't both be right.
3. The graph in the OP's post says we have 2212 active cases in the province as of October 19 (the DOH reports 1112 active cases).
The DOH reports about the hospitals in our province that as of October 18 there are 233 Covid patients in hospital beds:

If we neglect the one day difference, that would mean about 1 in 10 active cases are in hospital, or even 1 in 5, depending on which number of active cases you pick.
There's not a chance in hell that 10% or even 20% is a correct percentage.
Even in Europe, with its much older population, it's a much lower percentage, more like 5% or so. In the Philippines, with its much younger population you'd expect a lower hospitalization rate, not a much higher one.

4. The reluctance in getting tested, for all sorts of reasons, but probably mostly the fear of forced quarantine and/or hospitalization obviously is another factor in the underreporting here.

 

In the past three weeks we've received news of the deaths of three family members, all living in the same general area of Bayawan, at the mouth of the Pagatban river maybe a km or two downriver from the Pagatban bridge. I think two were actually in the same household.
One was elderly in her 80's, so not a big surprise there, but the other two were women, mid twenties and early fifties thought to be in otherwise decent health. Only one made it to the hospital and was tested, and she died with no results available yet. They actually represented three generations of one family, a grandmother, one of her daughters, and one of her granddaughters.
I will update if I hear anything, but I did see that Bayawan seems to be a relative hotspot right now:

 

FYI, the info we just received is that the last of the three to die - also the only one to go to the hospital - tested positive on the rapid test (antigen, I think). They are awaiting the results on the other swab test which supposedly had to go to Duma or Cebu to be read. The immediate neighborhood is in some type of lockdown now.

 

Yes, it is 5 levels (with 5 being the highest - had to say that as here who knows what, with perhaps 3 being the highest in a country of confusion!!!) and was tested out in NCR. At least I understand 1 to 5 whereas the previous MXQECTGMKY taxed my brain (anyway, let's be positive - it only took 18 months plus to do it better!).

The issue of concern is that, as far as I am aware, there are no Level 5 regions and Negros Oriental is one of only two Level 4s in the whole country, the other being Davao Occidental. The latter could be expected as it is surrounded by many other regions within a big island - BUT Negros Oriental??? WTF! What has gone wrong??? Never should have happened IMO. Who is responsible and who will take the blame?

This is Level 4:



Level 4 is similar to GCQ with higher restrictions. But the difference is they say they are allowing more economic activities.

"Under Alert Level 4, persons below 18 years old and over 65 years old, those with comorbidities, and pregnant women are not allowed to go out of their houses. However, they are permitted to go outside if they are buying essential goods or services or working in permitted industries. [I even read somewhere recently that the upper age is 60 but can't find where I read it].

Indoor visitor or tourist attractions, indoor leisure centers, gyms, recreational venues, gaming establishments, mass gatherings, meetings, and staycations will be prohibited. [This disagrees with the chart above, where it shows (for example) 10% usable capacity for an indoor gym and in a further piece I read it states "These establishments and services can also operate indoors for up to 10% capacity, but employees and customers must have been fully vaccinated against COVID-19. Año said customers who want to enter these establishments must present their vaccination cards." There is so much confusion in this country that it is pointless trying to be sure of anything. I read most of this yesterday but today is today and who knows what???].

 

Someone recently commented to me that everything appears to be run by Clowns - the problem is that the audience can only look on as people are dying unnecessarily.

 

Sorry for your losses and to their very close family. It seems the number of reports from Forum members relating to their own infections or death of relatives and friends is escalating. Close to two years since the start and it is going backwards.

 

10 of those deaths were in Bacong. One of them was a 40ish fellow right across from my gate. He was the caretaker at the beach camp where he died in his hut.
According to second hand information the manager of the resort took care of my friend for about a week, looking after his fever and feeding him. They could have contacted the local health unit and received free meditation. They could have contacted his family but they claimed they didn't know how ( I don't believe that for one second) everyone around here knew the guy. Do I sound a angry?
I can't say why they were so stupid but I do know for a fact that they were entertaining guests up until the caretaker died.