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Household Community Quarantine Passes

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Rye83, Mar 24, 2020.

  1. Jens K

    Jens K DI Senior Member

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    With that in mind it sounds plausible they'll open again soon for the sellout in return for ppe and test kit "donations" from China.


    In other news - anybody in Dumaguete actually received the fabulous color coded quarantine pass today, as was promised?
     
  2. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    I don't know.
    Do the math!

    Herd immunity is around 65%. 35% will slow it down. Currently the projection is to have 100K to 200K deaths by July. Assuming a 1% death rate results in only 20 million sick. Which is only 6% of the population of the US 327 million. Way short of 35%.

    Applying the same schedule as Asian countries does not make sense because the US is not behaving the same way. No masks, no supervised quarantine, no door to door checks for sick family members, etc.

    Please show your math if you continue to disagree.
     
  3. Jens K

    Jens K DI Senior Member

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    I agree with your math, but using masks and stricter quarantine will lead to even less of a percentage and stretch it out even longer. So the "schedule" of the US is a quicker one. More deaths than probably necessary, but quicker reaching the 35 to 70 percent.
     
  4. Jens K

    Jens K DI Senior Member

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    I am not implying that any of this going on in the US or Europe currently is actually good. Just observing what is actually happening.

    the outcome will for sure be a lot of pain, but also a shorter time until a meaningful number of people are immune.

    Also, regarding the math - currently there is no knowledge about the percentage of people who get infected but stay completely under the radar due to lack of symptoms. This may, or may not, considerably change the situation.
     
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  5. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Do you mean the Stock Exchange might re-open soon? It already has. I saw much news that it had closed (including a notification email) but nothing that it had opened (including no email). I was thinking of my asawa buying a few stocks but now I think those who knew (were let in on the 'secret') picked up the bargains.
     
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  6. Jens K

    Jens K DI Senior Member

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    okay, just for you: enforcing masks and extensive quarantine will stretch it out longer. UNLIKE the US, or Europe, where such strict measures are not taken and therefore, the illness runs its course much faster.
     
  7. Mikal

    Mikal DI Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  8. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    Not fast enough. Letting the illness take its' course will take over a year. By then the economy will have suffered irreparable damage. Currently Asia is making automobiles and other manufactured goods whereas the USA and Europe are not.

    After 6 months or more, when the US and European economy gets going, many people will have moved around and will not be available to go back to their previous job. Companies will have to go through the recruitment and training process for many positions. These companies will be crippled. Meanwhile the Asian countries are still making automobiles and other manufactured goods.

    As the illness grows exponentially, the longer this is put off it becomes much harder to fix until it runs its' course and by then the economy is ruined.
     
  9. PatO

    PatO DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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    C’est catastrophique
     
  10. Jens K

    Jens K DI Senior Member

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    what is your point? you want to have China-like circumstances here or in the US? Military and govt surveillance strongarming the people into submission? No thanks.

    Economy wise, I cant speak about the US but in Germany, companies don't lay off their staff (specially not the high qualified, hard to replace people) but put them on reduced salaries, with support from the government. even if they did, why would people move, and where? same problem and no new jobs all around the country. So the people will still be there mostly, even if it takes half a year or more. Also, see the good sides of all of this. Clean air, climate can take a break, many people will see that there are other things than 9 to 5 wage slavery for the sake of economic growth, little bit of a slowdown will not damage western economies beyond repair. there are enough riches hidden in deep pockets which just need to be dug up by the states to help those who need it.

    a quick look around the world, for example to equador (people burning their dead in the streets) or India (millions of people barely have access to enough water for regularly washing their hands, dont know what to eat and where to go and are kept in check by the military), will show you that we are all so very well off in comparison. Lean back and enjoy the silence and clean air in Dumaguete!
     
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