Dumaguete Info Search


Philippine economy contracts

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by hiddenuser, Aug 10, 2020.

  1. hiddenuser

    hiddenuser Guest Guest User

    Ratings:
    +0 / 0
    phil star headline tonight quotes government sources that the Philippines had a 0.7% contraction of the economy the first quarter and a record 16.5% the second quarter. the palace said a "delicate balancing" of health and economic issues is needed. unnamed officials "are optimistic that a 'proposed' stimulus package will enable the worst hit sectors to recover". i have read the destiny of the manila area (and i guess the rest of the country as well) with regards to covid will be addressed august 18. at that point we will be half way through the third quarter i assume. astonishing how quickly this economy is collapsing if this continues. Trading Economics (TE) said 2019 gnp for the phils was 376 billion. the drop so far in 2020 the government says is about 17%, TE says 20 percent or 75 billion off of 2019 in just the first two quarters. as of july 24 the philippines reports 1879 deaths from covid. what does all this mean? i dunno
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  2. Always a Poppy

    Always a Poppy DI Senior Member Restricted Account

    Messages:
    658
    Trophy Points:
    166
    Location:
    Philippines
    Ratings:
    +828 / 142
    It's an interesting thought whether a poor economy here will either benefit or dis-benefit the likes of most of us with our financial resources in other countries. We may benefit with short (or even long)-term currency exchange rates if the Peso suffers worse than other currencies due to recession. We may even see cheaper land/goods/services etc (or the reverse could happen in areas of recession where hyper-inflation kicks in). I only speak from some knowledge of history and personal thoughts, as I'm no financial expert.

    I think in the long run, for those of us here for the long haul, a thriving economy is better.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  3. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

    Messages:
    877
    Trophy Points:
    246
    Ratings:
    +1,160 / 79
    Blood Type:
    I don't know.
    The Philippines is doing great! You need to consider this relative to the performance of other economies.

    The US GDP dropped by 38% vs the Philippines only 16.5%. Furthermore with companies becoming more accustomed to having administrative employees work remotely they will be more willing to outsource to foreign countries. Not just call centers. Think accountants, engineers and everyone who spends their days in front of a computer.

    In the 1980s - 1990s there was an exodus of manufacturing from the US to Asia. (Mostly China) Now there will be an exodus of administrative white collar jobs. It will happen much faster because administrative offices with a connection to the Internet are much faster to build than factories with complex machinery.

    The BPO industry in the Philippines is going to make a big jump.

    The first world is f*cked. (US and Europe) You can already see this in the changing currency rates. The Peso is getting stronger against the dollar. When the pandemic is over and the first world governments stop flooding their economies with printed money the reality will set in. There will be a medium speed trod downhill as more jobs get outsourced to countries including the Philippines.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_impact_of_the_COVID-19_pandemic_in_the_United_States

    https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/USDPHP:CUR
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  4. OP
    OP
    hiddenuser

    hiddenuser Guest Guest User

    Ratings:
    +0 / 0

    well my personal interest in all of this from a completely selfish view is centered in the exchange rate. i no longer have any investments here or there, just a little cash in bank. i came here at 42 to 1, saw it go to about 53 to 1 which was a big boost. now i see long range forecasts in the neighborhood of 46 to 1 tho i cannot see how accurate forecasts can be made with all the turmoil.

    i would not argue against the senario you describe tho its hard for me to believe it will be so dramatic a change, but perhaps so. lol, one day at a time, eh
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  5. Happy Camper

    Happy Camper DI Senior Member Restricted Account Infamous Showcase Reviewer

    Messages:
    926
    Trophy Points:
    246
    Ratings:
    +1,395 / 180
    Blood Type:
    O+
    Just read on an ANC posting the President is saying that it will be okay for people to go out to buy food, regardless of any quarantine restriction, as the government is broke and cannot afford to feed the masses.

    He is also talking about using the military to enforce quarantine restrictions. I'll let you make your own decision as to what that just might mean.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  6. anti_crazy

    anti_crazy DI Forum Adept

    Messages:
    264
    Trophy Points:
    216
    Ratings:
    +262 / 48
    I guess it means OK to buy food, but wear mask, etc.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
  7. anti_crazy

    anti_crazy DI Forum Adept

    Messages:
    264
    Trophy Points:
    216
    Ratings:
    +262 / 48
    The exodus of manufacturing was followed already by white collar/high tech exodus from mid 90's on. Although Trump is trying to reverse that trend, but with limited success so far.
     
    • Agree Agree x 2
  8. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

    Messages:
    877
    Trophy Points:
    246
    Ratings:
    +1,160 / 79
    Blood Type:
    I don't know.
    It is very common for countries to use their military as a resource when the local resources are overwhelmed.

    Australia is using their military to enforce quarantine.

    https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/a...-fines-of-almost-a5000-for-breaching-covid-19
     
    • Informative Informative x 1
  9. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

    Messages:
    877
    Trophy Points:
    246
    Ratings:
    +1,160 / 79
    Blood Type:
    I don't know.
    Not possible from the mid 90's because the Internet was not well established until lately. (Fibre optics, etc.)

    With the invention of the smart phone (2009) becoming affordably popular in 2013 more people in the third world are becoming computer and Internet literate.

    Finally, except for computer programmers, the white collar exodus did not happen yet. The work culture measured a workers productivity by their seat time. Only now are managers becoming comfortable with remote workers and measuring their productivity. (Also using Zoom to measure seat time.) The pandemic is driving this culture change.
     
  10. Happy Camper

    Happy Camper DI Senior Member Restricted Account Infamous Showcase Reviewer

    Messages:
    926
    Trophy Points:
    246
    Ratings:
    +1,395 / 180
    Blood Type:
    O+
    Limited success is better than abject failure.
     
    • Agree Agree x 1
Loading...