Face Shields

well one of the wisdoms that comes with age is that nothing is as simple as it first appears.

i do agree with your description of an epidemiologists duties. as i know you are aware, perhaps others are not, that an epidemiologist (or virologist) works within a budget, performing duties that are part of their job description as directed by their management.

you know as i do that money is not limitless, so there has to be some budget approval, and activities of an epidemiologist or virologist have to be based in large part on "cost-benefit" analysis. in the US, the courts, the EPA, the military, the department of transportation and on and on, all calculate the value of human life and how many lives their budget will affect.

the philippine entire budget for this year is about 70 billion dollars equivalency. in the first two quarters of this year, depending on your sources, the philippines GNP has contract nearly 20 percent or 14 billion. if the third quarter is as bad as the second, then not only does the loss greatly expand, but almost certainly the price of borrowed money by the philippines will go up.

so my position on the issue of covid response in the phils is that the country cannot sustain the losses attributable to the covid virus. if i were to stand by my guns and spend "anything to save grandma" i would be irresonsible. but its not even my decision. in the phils it is their legislature and president who have to make that decision and also take the responsibility for destroying the economy if that is the outcome.

i disagree with you and others here if you feel we need to keep raising the stakes and destroying this country to prevent a few more covid deaths. we would not do that for tuberculosis deaths, or dengue deaths, or motocycle deaths. why covid? it is a world wide panic is why and politicians are afraid to stand up to it.

 

well there is no need for any demerits. i feel no anger towards you. it worth remembering that we don't control anything here and probably not in our home country either. obviously time will tell what actions taken had merit, if any. if we have a difference of opinion can we just let it be that? if i catch covid and die from it how is it different than if i catch tuberculos and die from that? i am 77 years old. i know i will die sooner or later, if not from covid then from somthing else. dying is the price of being born. i refuse to engage in fearmongering and i believe that this is all covid is. the sky is not falling, it is nature at work and this too shall pass.

 

I do not have the “expertise” on this subject that my fellow cell mates apparently have but after all the back and forth posts I am left wondering if the right answer is, “there is no right answer”!

 

so far the phils has conducted tests on less than 2 million people, less than 2 per cent of the population. this is after six months of the pandemic. how would you know it is so easily transmitted if you don't have the data to back your fears up?

 

Yes the economy has contracted quite a bit in the first two quarters of the year (especially in the 2nd quarter). Yes the third and fourth quarter will very likely be bad also. However, even if the third quarter shows a 20% loss of GDP also, that does not signal things getting worse still, since the 20% will be a loss vis-a-vis the same quarter last year. So no, the loss to GDP does not "greatly expand", the loss stays at the same level as in the 2nd quarter. Same applies to the 4th quarter.
In other words, no economic recovery yet, which is bad enough, but it isn't quite as bad as you suggest.

The price of money, interest rates, will not go up, rates are going down. Central banks will raise interest rates when an economy overheats and starts fuelling inflation to rise above the "acceptable level". Vice versa, when the economy tanks central banks will lower interest rates (as the Philippines Central Bank has already done 4 times this year).

 

“Tis the times' plague, when madmen lead the blind.“ King Lear...Shakespeare

 

well my friend, i have labeled some others as fearmongers where covid is concerned and i do not want to become a fearmonger re philippine economics. i certainly hope you are right

i also have no credentials or experience in international finance or banking so all of my comments in my post reflect simple intuition and observation. i guess we will have a better idea in four to six weeks when the third quarter becomes history. i see the central bank rates in many counties at or near zero. does that mean central banks cannot help any more by reducing the cost of borrowing? the phils has gone from 3.5 percent to 2.25 percent i think just so far this year. unfortunately i do not know what that means other than it appears to be a form of relief that is drying up.

i think its correct that the phils had pretty good growth last year, so if the third quarter this year continues the contraction, then probably the year to year gnp decline will continue this year? of course that is just speculation at this point but we will know soon enough.

anyway, thanks for you input and observations. i will have to set back and scratch my chin and watch the news!