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Rather disconcerting numbers

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Dutchie, Sep 13, 2020.

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  1. Edward K

    Edward K DI Senior Member Veteran Navy

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    I am fascinated by the millions of differing opinions here and all over the net, but I tend to agree with PhilPots, that if we don't GENERALLY slow things down, we are in for more tens of millions, if not hundreds of millions, checking out early after overwhelming medical personnel and facilities.

    The only thing I will concede is that young and middle age people die somewhat less frequently than us seniors. And throwing big parties cause you're bored strikes me as pure lunacy. And shooting people and beating them up over masks is so over the top, it boggles the mind. My trips to crazy land may be over for a very long time.

    Dumaguete is just plain lucky, SO FAR, in that it's not spreading as fast as Bacolod or Cebu, and it SEEMS to be under control. God help us is it breaks out big here.
     
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  2. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    A LOT less frequently than seniors. Not "somewhat".
     
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  3. mirohu

    mirohu DI Junior Member

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    Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

    Bill Gates

    Co-chair and Trustee
    Bill Gates shapes and approves foundation strategies, advocates for the foundation’s issues, and sets the organization’s overall direction.

    Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation started funding the IMHE in 2007, then funding $279 million USD in 2017. In 2008 IMHE had team of 3 people, in 2017 it was 300 people, now it is 420 employees. Seems like IMHE would be a small little department at the University of Washington if Bill Gates did not come along.
     
  4. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Not something I know much about - but if people like Bill Gates holds onto all his money, he would be criticised for meanness.

    I often ponder why charities struggle to make a few millions when there are so many very wealthy people in the World. I don't even have a million (GBP) but I have more than I need.
     
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  5. Edward K

    Edward K DI Senior Member Veteran Navy

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    Concede, but still semantics: From https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid_weekly/index.htm

    of the 175,886 deaths in the US "...involving COVID-19.." from 1 feb thru week, 14,603 were under 54 yrs old (less than 1,000 under 25, i thought it was higher). That ain't zero, and obviously doesn't include older people who caught it from kids. Still, anybody who rants about having to wear masks is a m.......
     
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  6. OP
    OP
    Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    You express the hope of a vaccine being available for everyone before we reach the point of overwhelmed hospitals. I share that hope, but.......
    a. It looks likely that there will not be a vaccine available until somewhere in the first half of 2021 at the earliest;
    b. People will probably need 2 shots each;
    c. Don't underestimate the growing strength in numbers of "anti-vaxers" in many countries;
    d. Many people live in countries where the government can not afford to pay for the vaccine, or even deliberately doesn't want to;
    e. Production capacity for a vaccine will be limited even if new factories are being rushed to completion already now (estimates differ, but it seems unlikely that more than 1 to 2 billion doses will be available in the first year of production)

    So in all honesty I am not confident at all that this problem is going to go away any time soon. It may for some (those who can get their hands on an effective vaccine), but for a large majority it seems more likely that covid will remain a dominant issue in their lives for a much longer period.
    My thinking is that by the end of next year it seems likely that most of the usual suspects (North America, Europe, Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the rich part of the Middle East and Australia/New Zealand, maybe Moscow and the biggest cities in China) will have vaccinated a large majority of their population at least once. Other countries will be lucky to have enough vaccine to protect staff at hospitals and other essential workers. The rest of the population will have to wait, and if a rational decision is taken they'll vaccinate kids and teachers before seniors (who generally aren't productive anyway and can be told to stay home without causing much economic damage). For most people in Africa, South and Middle America and poorer countries in Asia this thing may drag well into 2023.
     
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    Last edited: Sep 14, 2020
  7. Happy Camper

    Happy Camper DI Senior Member Restricted Account Infamous Showcase Reviewer

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    Read an article yesterday reported on ANC and ABS-CBN affiliate that said some 100+ reported recoveries from Covid were actually deaths. Now I am not a doctor, but I think most people, medically trained or not, can tell the difference between a recovery (living person) and a death. If you can't get that simple thing right, then take all of the numbers and toss them in the trash, they are meaningless, in my opinion.
     
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  8. Philpots

    Philpots DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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    You failed to mention this was in the Philippines........ MANILA--Scores of coronavirus cases previously reported as recoveries turned out to be deaths after final validation, the Department of Health (DOH) said Saturday.
     
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  9. PatO

    PatO DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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    Regarding prioritising first to last in who gets the vaccine, speaking only for Negros Oriental, I would like to see the first wave include health care workers, first responders, teachers, and elementary students, my family. Second wave secondary students, government workers, essential services workers, food service employers, employees. Third wave healthy senior citizens. Fourth wave ages 50 and above. Last wave the healthy fit 20-40, unhealthy 50+.
     
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  10. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    I don't know.
    You want unhealthy people over 50 last? What defines unhealthy? High blood pressure?
     
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