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Covid spread comparison

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Dutchie, Sep 22, 2020.

  1. djfinn6230

    djfinn6230 DI Senior Member

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    Do you see that Florida has more than twice the population of Michigan with twice the case count. All you are saying with these numbers is that there is no difference in infection rates. The number of cases per person is more meaningful and they are both very similar. All this proof...to prove that gender of the Governor makes no difference

    SIGNIFICANTLY, one must add to this information that Michigan is one the MOST LOCKED DOWN states in the country and FLORIDA us one of the least locked down states in the country PLUS a highly elderly population. So what does that say about:

    1. The difference that gender makes (only with respect to covid lol) and

    2. The efficacy of lockdowns in the US?


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  2. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Do you have the source for this? Not in the sense of 'where is your proof?' but because I am interested to read about it.

    I am aware of research into using laser pulses to kill viruses but am puzzled how virus particles could be detected within the host cells, some of which will be deep within the body.
     
  3. danbandanna

    danbandanna DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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    As of June 29 ? my figures were as of yesterday.... and if you want to defend a Governor that refused to lock down his state be my guest.... we will agree to disagree
     
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  4. jim787

    jim787 DI Senior Member

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    Here is a comparison with similar population.
    [​IMG]
    I am not surprised that Michigan and Florida have similar rates for relative population size. Governors cannot enforce a mask mandate by themselves. It's like state cigarette tax or assault weapons ban--stuff just flows across state lines. Here we are in Negros Or., obsessing over a patient crossing a land border from the neighboring province. Taiwan, with a woman president, had a national mask mandate. As does Russia, as it happens.

    Are women leaders more intelligent? One might think so, looking at college admission and graduate rates. But that's another question. In my opinion the problem with some male leaders is that they are overly emotional. They have the mental disability of hollow machismo. As examples, the three worst-performing countries for fighting covid--(in no particular order), the USA, Brazil and India.
     
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  5. OP
    OP
    Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    Yes, arguably a mutated variant of the SARS-COV2 virus might appear that is more deadly (or it may already be there right under our noses), but by design more deadly variants of a virus have greater difficulty in spreading widely, because if it kills the person, it will also make you sicker (quicker?), which means you're less likely to infect others. And, if a more deadly variant would be spreading widely defying those odds, we'd be witnessing a sudden surge in reported death rate in at least one country. So I'd say that is the thing to watch out for (as I am sure WHO and others are doing).

    I agree about the possible vaccine problem that might arise from virus mutations. Although what I learned from a trusted source at Janssen Pharmaceutics (the subsidiary of Johnson&Johnson where their vaccine is being developed) is that their tests so far show their vaccine effectively dealing with known mutations of the virus.

    As for hosts other than humans, the virus has been found to spread at will in populations of captive minks (but presumably in the wild as well) and millions of the animals have already been culled. The virus has also spread under raccoon dogs, farmed for their fur, predominantly in China.
     
  6. danbandanna

    danbandanna DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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  7. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    The 'trick' I believe would be to produce a vaccine which initiates an immune response to those virus parts which are shown to mutate less.

    As for spread in other hosts, a very recent report I read says 28 mammal species (including domestic pets) have been identified as potential carriers - some show no signs of the disease. Latent infection is an issue (as in the human cold sore virus lying latent and emerging only occasionally or as in shingles where a much earlier chicken pox episode re-emerges as shingles) and it is possible that a mutant form of Sars-cov-2 could emerge from transmission between these many potential hosts and may even lie latent to emerge many years in the future, by which time perhaps there is enough herd immunity (acquired and passive) to quell it.

    Those easily depressed are advised not to read my speculation below (or read it and ignore it for what it is):

    It is correct, of course, that more deadly pathogens spread less quickly and infected individuals would probably be more easily identified - but, what if the variant was asymptomatic in its early stages, so infected many people, became latent and later emerged to cause a very rapid death??? :arghh:
     
  8. Edward K

    Edward K DI Senior Member Veteran Navy

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    I generally think this article from WorldCrunch makes sense.


    BEATING COVID-19: WHAT THE EAST GOT RIGHT AND WEST GOT WRONG

    Last week, with COVID-19 daily case counts hitting new record highs across both the Western Hemisphere and Western Europe, life in the East was remarkably normal. Countries like Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, New Zealand have managed to stave off both major restrictions and to keep the case death toll at a minimum. In China, where the virus first began to spread late last year, there were exactly 738 cases registered throughout the entire month of October, and the economy is back to chugging at full steam.

    Many point to the culture in Asian countries as a key to their success against the coronavirus. Because populations tend to be more collectivist and obedient, and some governments are more authoritarian, the reasoning goes, it’s easier for Asian countries to adopt the draconian measures required to fight the pandemic. Western individualism, meanwhile, is a disadvantage in times when a united, coordinated response is needed.

    But citing culture may hide more than it reveals. New Zealand is an open, liberal country, not a communist dictatorship. Taiwan and Japan, too, are thriving democracies. All three countries fare better than the US and parts of Western Europe in various indicators of a healthy free society, such as the Human Development Index.

    No, when it comes to limiting COVID’s spread and death count, and preventing the second wave of infections, it is ultimately a question of policy choices made and actions taken. Here’s a look at what the East did right, and what the West got wrong:

    Testing, testing, testing
    When China (official caseload since the start of the pandemic: 85,940; deaths: 4,634. Many question the accuracy of Chinese government data) discovered six new cases of Covid-19 and six new asymptomatic cases in the coastal city of Qingdao, it moved to test all of the city’s nine million residents — in just five days. It wasn’t a first: China had done the same in Wuhan, population 11 million, and has since also mass screened the western city of Kashgar, La Stampa reports.

    • The rate of almost two million tests per day in just one city remains unimaginable in Europe, where countries currently test between 200,000 and 400,000 people per day.
    European countries had been warned. Just one of many examples: in August, a prominent Italian microbiologist, Andrea Crisanti, had recommended the government quadruple the country’s testing capacity, as he explained in Milan daily Corriere della Sera. What happened to the plan? “It was ignored by the government,” Crisanti said recently.

    • At the current rate of testing, it would take health authorities 34 days to test the entire city of Milan, population 1.4 million — and only if they chose to stop testing all other towns in the surrounding region of Lombardy.

    Be smart: By itself, building capacity wouldn’t have prevented the second wave. Testing campaigns must be strategic and data-driven, although it’s difficult to do that now that France is recording close to 50,000 new cases per day. “You have to test with a purpose,” French epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola told Le Monde.

    But Asian countries have been doing this since day one. In South Korea (caseload: 26,271 total cases; 462 deaths), health workers have been using phone location data to identify thousands of people potentially at risk. In Vietnam (caseload: 1,177 total cases; 35 deaths), authorities have focused on high-risk individuals and on buildings and neighbourhoods where there have been confirmed cases.

    Act quickly
    When Italy announced a ban on gatherings, shut nightspots and high schools earlier in October, not many knew it was copying South Korea, one of the democratic countries most often praised for its effective containment policies.

    The difference? On the day South Korean health minister Park Neung-hoo announced the restrictions in late August, saying his people were in “a very dangerous situation”, South Korea reported 332 new cases.

    • On 24 October, when Italy closed cinemas, theatres and gyms and mandated high schools to continue remotely for 75% of classes, the country had 19,644 cases and 151 deaths per day — by then, it was too little, too late.

    • In France, introducing measures earlier would have made it “possible to break the dynamic, with less strong measures than those announced today,” said Costagliola. “The longer we delay, the more the pandemic progresses, the more we are in this phase of rapid growth, requiring to act strongly.”

    Total eradication v. flattening the curve
    When to end restrictions is as important as when to introduce them. When the West introduced the first nationwide lockdowns in the spring, scientists, politicians and the media told the public that the restrictions were necessary to “flatten the curve”. The more we practice social distancing, the rationale was, the slower the virus will spread and kill, the more manageable the health crisis will be.

    But countries that have succeeded in staving off a second wave of infections have worked to extinguish the virus altogether, not just flatten the curve.

    • New Zealand (1,949 total cases, 25 deaths), for example, introduced a national lockdown on March 25, when it recorded 102 cases and 0 deaths.

    • When the lockdown was lifted on June 8, the country had had no new local transmission in 17 days, and all patients had fully recovered. To date, life in New Zealand is almost entirely back to normal, with some social distancing.

    Tighter borders
    Countries such as Italy, Greece, Spain and France, whose economies rely on tourism, rallied to reopen borders and allow international visitors to spend the summer holidays there.

    But the most successful countries have reopened their borders cautiously, if at all.

    Experts point to Taiwan’s (553 total cases, 7 deaths) border restrictions as among the most efficient: until the end of June, all new arrivals — tourists, business travelers as well as residents — had to book themselves into a hotel to self-quarantine for two weeks.

    • The government subsidised the stay, including a welcome package with dish soap, nail clippers and laundry detergent to facilitate the quarantine; food was delivered on their doorstep; a local district office would phone at least once a day to check in and thank them for doing their part.

    Single-mindedness
    In European countries, closing schools and working from home during the second wave seemed like an unspeakable taboo: the countries just couldn’t afford to close down again. All levels of government opposed new closures, even when their countries recorded more than 20,000 new cases every day.

    Asian countries such as China and South Korea, instead, have acted decisively at the local level whenever they saw new flare ups. When Beijing recorded 31 new coronavirus cases on June 10, they shut down schools and urged people to work from home. Offices and schools reopened shortly after.
     
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  9. jim787

    jim787 DI Senior Member

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  10. djfinn6230

    djfinn6230 DI Senior Member

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    I am sure you were not the the first to develop that theory. In my own thought experiment I think of how well Margaret Thatcher might have handled Covid in UK. I suspect Britain’s free market would have been in a war footing and developed a vaccine; DHS would have had the country nearly immunized by now (my opinion only). But how often do countries experience great leadership, male or female?


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