No it's not Tagalog, it's the title for the new alliance being created between Australia, the UK and US. Does that make the Philippines feel more secure as I have not read any response from Philippine Government ? Do you think this is a game changer with regards to the right of passage through the South China Sea? It has certainly upset relations between France and UK with regards to the cancellation by Australia of the conventional submarine contract with France. What's your thoughts on the subject?
I think it's a bit silly that a small island nation in Europe that happens to have a colonial history would engage in a new alliance far from home, might be a recipe to get involved in another unwanted conflict (much like Blair got vilified after the Iraq war, Boris might reap some scorn in due course also . There was/is already an Anzus agreement on cooperation in defense matters, so not much added value in this one it seems. It would have been much more impressive if Indonesia, Malaysia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Taiwan would all have been invited to join. On a side note, it is remarkable that the self appointed world policeman would seek to enter into a new military adventure far from its shores when they so unceremoneously just left another far away theater. And no, I can't see anything game changing in it, other than the soured relationship with France that you already mentioned.
All of this is rather obvious in the fact that up until now Australia was prohibited from any Nuclear weapons or the ability to create weapon grade fuel. The Subs contracted from France were thusly diesel propulsion which would have been easily tracked by the Chinese. This new deal allows Nuclear powered subs fueled by U.S. This will give the ability to stay submerged and silent much longer with ship killer ability. This will nullify the superior numbers recently acquired by the PRC in the coming conflict with PRC (which in my opinion is inevitable).
The Philippines has welcomed this and have said it is a good thing to help with the West Philippine Sea situation. I do feel bad for France as they bargained in good faith to build subs for Australia, but you also can't blame Australia for taking the USA up on better equipment. Any country in the world would have made the same decision. Strategically it makes good sense for the USA to enter into this contract, and it should reap long term benefits. It will create stability in a region dominated by China's forces, even though this is still years down the road. The subs don't build themselves overnight. However just the knowledge it is coming is enough for China to take a good hard look at what they are doing, and what they hope to accomplish. This is no way has any bearing on the Afghan fiasco. After 20 years we should have expected and deserved more than what we actually saw happen, but it also shouldn't be a surprise when you look at the history of the country, including Russia's adventures there just a few short years prior. Bottom line is the more countries rally behind moves like this and push back on China, the more difficult it becomes for China to just take over. They have their hands full with Taiwan and Hong Kong now, it becomes very hard to put up fights on multiple fronts.
I think Taiwan will be the real acid test. Xi Jinping has said that it will be unified during his presidency and it certainly can't be done the same way it was, for Hong Kong. Taiwan is beefing up their defence force and one would think it can only be unified by force. If China was to strike Taiwan would the world respond other than by hollow rhetoric? Certainly, Afghanistan has proven the US has no appetite to continue being the world police. Who would come to Taiwan's aid? And hence I see that as the acid test to actually show that the world dominance has already shifted back to China, as unpalatable as it would seem to us from the east, I believe the sleeping dragon has been awakened - much from American mistakes but history shows that China has been the dominant world power for most of the recorded time and probably regaining its rightful place.
In the grand scheme of things the Philippines is doing quite well in the with the help of the U.S. and Australia keeping the Chinese subs penned up in the South China Sea. The U.S. Navy aircraft can pinpoint diesel exhaust sources from the air. Several of these vintage aircraft have been given to the Philippine Navy/AirForce/Coast Guard to smell the exhaust of the Chinese submarines. The Australian government is giving/selling seven fast Coast Guard ships/boats to the Philippines to harass subs found by sniffer aircraft and force them back into the South China Sea. China has loaded missiles on their conventional diesel powered subs but have limited range capability requiring them to escape the South China Sea to strike Guam for example. AUKUS may look good idea on paper but the devil is in the details. Each partner has different rules and sensibilities on engagements. Bringing all those under a unified command will be a gigantic undertaking. Example, will the Ozzies answer the engagement bell during tea time? If the Brits contribute engineering will that be enough to insure a successful mission without breakdowns scuttling the mission and requiring a return to port? As governments change expect the mission to change, the Chinese are not standing still but are watching and working. They will have the plans to the sub which will take a minimum of 5 years to get through testing and sea trials before the first mission is possible. In the meantime, the U.S. Navy hunter killers are lurking in the deep. For those interested look for the 2 part series Submarine Life Under the Waves using your favorite torrent search engine for episode 1 or Youtube for episode 2. It is a story of a Brit hunter killer sub trying to turn back a Russian sub. shakey
I think there is a huge difference between Afghanistan, a third world sh*t hole comprised of many tribal ethnicities and languages that fight amongst themselves for power that produces absolutely nothing of value, and Taiwan, a highly developed industrial country of ethnically similar people with similar political goals. There was absolutely nothing to gain politically or economically from Afghanistan. The same is not true for Taiwan. It would be a game with much higher stakes though, not sure if the US/NATO or the tax payers would be willing to risk everything for a small island country. I personally wouldn't want to see any assistance given to Taiwan as the resulting stock market crash would decimate my portfolio and income.
Hmm, I don't think history shows that. Through most of recorded time China didn't dominate even their close neighbours, let alone make their influence felt beyond their local area.
