Utilities & Mobile Noreco ii rates for August

No they haven't been announced yet but it looks very likely that they'll follow suit after Noreco I announced that their rate for August will increase to 15.1 peso per kWh, a 12% increase compared to last month. This doesn't bode well at all.
At the same time the peso is at a record low today against dollar, euro and pound. Going forward that will cause higher prices for everything that is imported, oil, diesel and even rice. Electricity rates will also be affected.

 

As you know (I am not going to teach you finance!), this will particularly hurt the citizens - anyone lucky enough to be bringing money in from abroad to pay their cost of living here is being 'compensated' by the fall in the peso.

I read so much now of an imminent financial crisis that could dwarf 2008 and even 1929. However, I have been reading that for some time - eventually the 'experts' will get it right.

Add to that (yes, I am Mr. Pessimistic) the effects of El Niño on the Philippines now and into 2027 and I think this will affect food crops to a high degree. Latest indications are this could be the strongest El Niño for 500-1000 years.

Would you suggest it is best to be in cash now? Remember the huge falls in property values in Japan (also now China) and the 'haircuts' to bank accounts in Greece and Cyprus - plus Russians are now withdrawing money from banks for fear of a visit from Barber Putin.

 

My impression with regard to a next financial crisis is that the build-up of government debt in the usa is very close to becoming unmanageable. The current strong increase in debt coincides with diminished appetite to buy us treasuries from foreign parties, so it's leading to additional upward pressure on interest rates in the US, further execerbating the pressure from the inflation front. Obviously if both the debt and the interest rate goes up then the debt servicing cost as part of the government budget can quickly get out of hand. The interest payments alone are running at around 3 billion usd per day already, or 1.1 trillion per year, the second highest expense in the entire budget.
But yeah that's what you get in a country that loves to spend money but not raize adequate taxes. Ultimately that ship will obviously run aground, but it's difficult to predict when.
To illustrate, just look at Japan, which has a debt to gdp ratio about double the one in the US. It makes a big difference how government debt is financed though, in other words who holds that debt.

As far as the El Nino front, so far this year it seems that the incessant stream of storms/typhoons is persistently being pushed on a northern path toward Taiwan/Japan/China rather than threatening the Philippines directly. On the other hand I do read about drought conditions threatening the rice harvest in exporting countries like Vietnam. That's not a good development from a Filipino view.

I would say that overall it seems likely for peso weakness to continue. Inflation will be difficult to bring down, which also means I don't see property values in the Philippines going down. That doesn't mean that a local market can't suffer anyway of course, if demand falters for whatever reason prices may well come down.

 

As expected

 

Like foreigners getting killed locally for the sake of some pesos?

Since coming here in 2016, I have read of killings locally but not read of any convictions. Perhaps these don't get reported or it takes decades to hold a trial.

With the Philippine economy looking like it's going down the drain, will robberies become more frequent. It only takes a criminal to see someone in an expensive car or using ATMS, to follow them home and find out the location for future exploitation. There are, of course, other ways and reasons for knowing who has money - I assume the recently murdered foreigners had some form of security (perhaps CCTV, dogs, helpers (?)) but, if so, it hasn't worked.

We need something like a Kalashnikov AK-47 in our hands to deter these killers - or to eliminate them from the gene pool.

 

Well as we all know probably, to get a life snuffed here is rather cheap.
Still, I reckon that if you look at murders, staying safe is in large part related to behaviour.
Choosing to rent/buy/build in the middle of nowhere can be a factor, just like being rude to people or hiring a helper who's not properly vetted.
Besides that there's the more obvious things like hanging out in places where people get drunk, flaunting wealth etc.

If what I read is correct the couple that got murdered the other day was renting. As a rule renters are hesitant to spend money on hardware for the house, so unless they had a compassionate landlord I assume proper safety measures were absent or minimal.
I did hear they were a friendly couple trying to help where they could and offering perks to kids in the neighbourhood (like swimming in their pool).

And yeah, while I'm definitely not the Kalashnikov type, having proper outside lighting during the night, good locks and some grills for vulnerable windows, cctv and a burglar alarm seems smart anyway even if your behaviour ticks all the boxes.

 

People are writing on FB about using pepper sprays, etc.

Hopeless! The intruders need to be very near - and they have guns! Much better to have something that fires 600 rounds per minute and can wipe out intruders from a distance. Then it's more equal. I know I cannot have one but give me one and I will use it.