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Consequences for APOR 191

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by SkipJack, Oct 20, 2020.

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  1. Philpots

    Philpots DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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    I know you have supported this with quotes but I do really have a problem following the logic that 71 percent of people do not pass it on where for example the infected rate in the USA is possible well below 20 percent of the population with 10 million recorded infections. Are you implying that the 10 million have only been infected by such a small number? YThey have a long way to go I think.
     
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  2. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    Well, I cite to the article and the preprints are around. I consider populations different for many factors. So I read the article as up to 71% of the population(Edit: meant cases) seem to not transmit. We've been asking this question for some time. One study applied new math to a known spread and determined that 20% of the cases caused 80% of the infections and 2% of the cases caused 20% of the cases. But how does it work in reality? So I look at these studies as telling us the amount of people not transmitting is larger, possibly much larger than we think.

    Take 50%. If 10 people are infected, 5 pass it on and 5 don't. At 100% passing it on there's no stopping it, but we have Cebu and now Bacolod, possibly Iloilo stopping it. Cebu is way down. So it isn't 100%, but what is it? In contact tracing, we should always miss 1 or 2 contacts, and it continues to spread. But if non-transmitters are a larger number than we thought, the contacts are captured, and the ones we miss are non-transmitters - transmission stops. I'm sure it varies and there are a host of differences between populations, but this helps explain what we're observing to me.
     
    Last edited: Nov 12, 2020
  3. Philpots

    Philpots DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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    I have a problem with 70% of the population. If you mean 70% of those infected then that may make more sense. As things stand I think that to take the USA as an example because I think those figures are reasonably accurate, 70% 0f say 350 million is 240 million. Presently they have had 10 million infections. That would imply that possibly over 200 million are sitting in the wings waiting to be hit. However, 70% of 10 million infected people who may not have passed it on implies that 7 million may not have infected others. That makes some sort of sense to me.
     
  4. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    Yep, I misspoke, I meant 70% of the cases. I'll add an edit. :smile: You didn't read the article? :frown::happy: :woot:
     
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  5. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    This is disconcerting.
    [​IMG]
     
  6. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    [​IMG]
     
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  7. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    Yes The Best Dumaguete
    [​IMG]Favorites · 7m ·
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    PublicBREAKING: The Department of Health in Region VII announced in a bulletin tonight that Negros Oriental has 61 new COVID-19 infections.

    The details of these cases are expected to be announced in a press briefing by the provincial IATF tomorrow, November 13, 2020.

    Negros Oriental has the highest number of new cases in Central Visayas today, November 12, latest DOH-7 data show. #NewsBite | via Raffy Cabristante, 106.3 Yes The Best News Editor
    [​IMG]
     
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  8. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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  9. Philpots

    Philpots DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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    Its not over until the fat lady sings!......... As someone used to say. If you are English you will know what I mean.
     
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  10. OP
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    SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    I don't know.
    This is not good.

    In the central Visayas there is a 5% chance of dying from COVID if you catch it. (1 in 20) This is particularly disturbing considering the low average age in the Philippines. Typically COVID mostly kills older people and countries with older populations have a higher death rate.

    Negros Oriental has four times the infection rate per capita than Cebu province. Double the number of infections for only one half the population.

    This means the response here is not working and should be ramped up soon.
     
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    Last edited: Nov 13, 2020
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