Philippines energy national emergency

Just some thoughts on what might happen.

Most of you will be aware of the announcement of the national energy emergency that was recently declared by the President of the Philippines.

My take on the possible results of the current oil crisis in terms of effects for the Philippines:
1. There will not just be (very) high prices for diesel, gasoline/petrol, cooking gas, kerosine, but indeed physical shortages. I reckon the absolute priority for the government through the entire crisis will be to keep the economy running as much as possible. That logically translates in priority for transport of goods (diesel for trucks and ferries), public transport (diesel for buses, gasoline for trikes/taxis) and absolutely no priority for fuel for everybody else.
Moreover, there's only one operational refinery in the Philippines, owned by Petron, and the capacity of that refinery is 180,000 bpd. The crude oil for that refinery still needs to be imported. Also, the capacity is not nearly enough for the demand in the country, so that still leaves a lot of diesel/gasoline to be imported.

2. This country is rather lucky in that it still produces a lot of its electricity in coal fired power plants (coal is still cheap) and with renewables but that still leaves around 30% of power generation depending on oil and gas. View attachment upload_2026-4-2_19-22-23.png
Because quick adjustments in the way electricity gets produced are not possible, I think that scheduled rolling blackouts starting at the latest in May/June are almost a certainty at this point. It seems likely to me that these blackouts will be planned in weekends as much as possible, but that may not be enough.

Almost all oil imports are from countries in the Persian Gulf

View attachment upload_2026-4-2_19-29-59.png

The LPG use would be partly for electricity generation but I assume mostly for cooking gas.
View attachment upload_2026-4-2_19-36-20.png

Imports of refined oil products come mostly from 4 countries, China, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia (see in the table below). Obviously, since none of these countries are substantial oil producers, they need to import the oil that they use to produce gasoline and diesel in their refineries.
China has already instituted a ban on oil product exports, the other 3 will likely follow. That means in all likelihood that the Philippines will have to (but will struggle) to find other suppliers.

View attachment upload_2026-4-2_19-48-34.png
The entire report from which I took these illustrations is here.

Other than the direct results from the current crisis there will obviously be a rather devastating effect on general inflation over time.

Edit: Just read that there is supposedly an agreement reached today between the Philippines and Iran about the safe passage of Philippine flagged vessels through the strait of Hormuz.
I am doubtful that will have much immediate impact though.
As long as there's ongoing attacks on and by Iran insurance will remain prohibitively expensive and ship-owners will be unwilling to risk sailing through the strait.
Moreover it seems unlikely there are any/many ocean going oil-tankers under Philippine flag.

 

There are currently 19 tankers operating internationally under the Philippine flag with a total GRT of 324,534 tonnes (equivalent to approximately 2.4 million barrels of crude). The problem is refining. Petron have the only operating refinery in the Philippines with a capacity of 180,000 bpd but the Philippines consumes around 480,000 bpd. So even if all the tankers were allowed through (and I couldn't find any currently in the Persian Gulf) "we" don't have the capacity to process it for consumption. In the words of the great Filipino philosopher Confusion - "we're trooly up a gum tree without a paddle"

 

It seems to me that because of the sailing time involved with getting oil from the Gulf states that even if the agreement would mean that those 19 ships can indeed pass through the strait of Hormuz, then the full 2.4m barrels capacity would only be enough for about 13 days (just to provide oil to the one refinery). And since the average sailing time to and from the gulf is about double those 13 days (return trip) this capacity isn't even enough to provide our one refinery with oil, so yeah gumtree and no paddle indeed.
Moreover, since the production capacity in the gulf has been substantially harmed, the competition for what remains will be fierce.

 

My own opinion, based on the realities of living here and how things actually work on the ground, is that this is a mess and nothing would surprise me anymore.

The Philippines is badly exposed. We are heavily dependent on imported oil, we only have one main refinery of real scale, and that leaves the country in a weak position if this war continues or widens. Petron’s Bataan refinery is around 180,000 barrels per day, while national oil demand is far above that, so the country simply cannot refine its way out of trouble domestically. The government itself has already declared an energy emergency, which tells you this is not just forum panic.

So yes, I think the concern is real. High prices are one thing. Physical shortages, transport disruption, supply problems and knock-on inflation are another. In a place like this, where systems are already stretched at the best of times, things can get messy very quickly.

And when you look at the Philippines, one obvious point keeps coming back: there is so much sun here that solar should be a major part of the answer. That seems even more obvious now that China has driven solar costs down so aggressively. Low-cost panels are no longer some distant fantasy.

Coconut oil, I would say it is part of the answer but not the whole answer. Coconut-based biodiesel can help at the margins and makes sense for the Philippines as a local resource, but it is not a magic replacement for the country’s diesel needs overnight, and raw straight coconut oil is not some simple cure-all for modern engines either.

And looking at China again, this is another reminder that they were ahead of the curve. They moved early into electric vehicles, batteries and solar while others kept clinging to the old model. When oil shocks come, that kind of forward planning matters.

As for the oil companies, I think a great deal of manipulation, deflection and outward dishonesty has gone on for years simply to protect profits and slow down real change. Too much time has been wasted protecting existing interests instead of building resilience, and countries like the Philippines are left vulnerable because of it.

My conclusion is simple: if this war drags on, the Philippines is in a weak position, and the faster it develops practical alternatives like solar, biodiesel blending, electrification and genuine contingency planning, the better. Because relying so heavily on imported fuel in an unstable world is a very dangerous place to be.

 

I have seen an increase in horses of late, and those donkeys down the boulevard - perhaps a sign of things to come?

 

Speaking of RMB (Yuan) does anyone know of a local bank that has RMB savings accounts?
I went to Metro Bank a couple of weeks ago. They will exchange Yuan but they do not have Yuan accounts.

 

My first thought is Chinabank on Real street between Locsin and San Jose streets.
https://www.chinabank.ph/accounts-foreign-currency-savings

 

Thank you.
I know where I'll be going Monday.

 

Amidst all the predictions of doom and gloom we decided to risk going out in the car today and to my surprise the petrol station we always use had petrol at the price of 92p per litre reduced from 97p this time last week.
Maybe too early to start doomsday prepping yet