I am unashamedly a pessimist - it's safer than being an optimist. They say "Hope for the best BUT prepare for the worst". That's exactly what a pessimist does. So if the Iran war continues for any length of time (months? years?) what would be the effect on the world and more specifically this country? The Philippines is in a bad situation as it depends highly on Middle Eastern oil - there is a potential not only for much of it not to be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz but what if the oil OUTPUT of Gulf States is destroyed to a very significant degree? That could mean no oil from the Middle East to anywhere for YEARS. The price of available oil will skyrocket - and inflation of food and other goods will follow. Currently, oil transport to friendly countries (e.g. Pakistan) via the Starit of Hormuz is being allowed, so it's possible that the Philippines could buy oil from those countries (which could include India and China) - but at a price. But if the Gulf States have no oil then ...... Thus: Expensive oil or almost no oil? The Philippines has no meaningful long-term reserves. The government needs to prepare for this - maybe they are. But who knows! It could come to the point that they will have to prioritise food distribution into and throughout the country and prioritise essential services (e.g. police, army, hospitals, ambulances, fire engines and, perhaps, PUVs) - it is not impossible to see a future of empty pumps for motorists. It is also not impossible to foresee a shortage of electrical supplies to homes, of LPG for cooking and food supplies. All at a time when the hot summer is almost upon us. A prudent person would be looking at having a good supply of LPG, basic foodstuffs and water (or water purification tablets). All of this depends, of course, on family size and alternatives at hand - cooking on wood fires anyone? Am I being too pessimistic? There is already evidence (after only 2 weeks) that US/Israeli interceptors are running low and that Iran may have stockpiled vast numbers of missiles and drones - some hidden in mountains and, in fact, still being produced inside mountain factories, mostly in the western part of the country, which has not been attacked so much as the eastern region. There is also speculation that Iran is using up its most-ancient stockpile of missiles and saving the best (worst!) for when the enemy's interceptors run out. What will the US and, especially, Israel (which would see the survival of its relatively small country at stake) do? I have no doubt that in an existential crisis Israel will use it nukes. Perhaps the US will have to do the same. Iran is a massive country and how do you defeat a regime which cares not about the death of its entire population? Perhaps you have to wipe it off the face of the Earth. The optimistic viewpoint is that there is a truth we are not aware of or that the US and Israel find an off-ramp - but Iran is probably accepting nothing less than a win, which would mean the end of attacks upon its country with its regime still in place. Then it will produce the nukes that it knows has protected other countries from a similar attack. Then there is the financial aspect - a massive decline in revenue for this country could mean a bank 'haircut' as was done in Cyprus and Greece in about 2013. There would probably be a minimum figure below which funds would not be affected - could it be the P1 million PDIC level or perhaps lower? I am hoping for the best - but I am already preparing for the worst.
I just read in the news today that the PNP are investigating the sudden close down of some Manila gas stations, funny i saw 2 yesterday on our way into Dumaguete that were closed when usually open. Are they just waiting for the price to rise higher so they can make an honest buck ? Is there a law against that ? if not there should be.
Physical shortages in a couple months from now of oil, petrol/gasoline, diesel, and cooking gas seem not just possible but almost certain at this point. Scheduled rotating brownouts may also be in our future, 30% or so of the electricity production in this country still relies on oil. If you can afford and didn't already I'd say it's time to seriously consider putting a fair amount of solar panels on your roof, and maybe get an electric vehicle.
President Bing Bong should be looking at leveraging the EDCA sites to gain access to oil through alternative channels. Borrox to the megalomaniac tangerine dreamer!
