This is from Western Pacific Weather (Westernpacificweather.com | Tropical Storm Bavi Nears Guam, Then the PAR? There is more confidence that the Philippines will see some sort of impact from Bavi by mid next week. With that said the intensity of the storm is still uncertain. Let me explain. The storm will be buffeted with wind shear and will move in to relatively cooler waters after it passes Guam, this would mean a general weakening trend. In storms past though systems have seen a burst of intensity in the Philippine sea which models often do not pick up on. This makes me cautious on ruling out that this storm will be weak when it does near the country. The thing to keep in mind is that there are a lot of factors in long range tracks. Thus having it impact the country does not mean it will be a typhoon. Seems likely at this time a Tropical storm WILL IMPACT somewhere in Luzon or Visayas. That is about as specific I can be given the information available. Over the weekend this will become more clear. If you are in the Philippines still watch this one closely. There is still some threat and if it does stay farther south and does not weaken from shear it actually could be a typhoon. But I have said before likely not until Sunday or Monday will we have a clear idea if the storm will impact the Philippines yet alone exactly where it will impact.
With the totally unpredictability of the weather here I wonder just how anyone can arrive at a season for anything, like the Inhabitants of the PI the weather does just as it wants JMHO of course JP
