2021 shows a sudden and very serious increase in deaths (all causes combined), and the data is only (sort of) complete up to September. Nevertheless total deaths in 2021 are already some 150,000 above the number for all of 2020. There is no specification of deaths by cause yet for 2021, but it seems very doubtful that will shed much light when published; for previous years there's always some 25-30% reported as "other causes". Here's a closer look at the data per month for recent years. I made the graphs myself, but the data is from Statista.com (for population numbers) and from the PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority) for the numbers on deaths. Some speculative thoughts: The dip in 2020 compared to the trend might be caused by less traffic deaths, and less people catching something that would have otherwise killed them both because of the long lockdowns. The excess deaths in 2021 might in a small part be caused by a catch up effect in old people, but there is no way to explain away the steep 20% rise in 2021 from the trendline, which, by the time the data is complete, will be more like a 30% rise. I haven't read any news report concerning this development, but it sure makes me think that the official reported covid deaths (54,000 cumulative deaths since early 2020) are woefully short of the true number.
Yes, that seems a reasonable explanation other than Covid, but still, one would expect a gradual rise then, not an explosion of deaths in August / September (and maybe beyond).
Just to put the excess deaths in the Philippines in perspective, here's a comparison over the entire pandemic period with some other countries in the region. It is obvious that the Philippines is by far the worst (at least of the countries publishing deaths statistics, many don't), but that there's a few more countries with a significant rise in the number of deaths in the second half of 2021, notably Thailand and Malaysia.
Seems like the poorer a country was (along with the level of access and quality of healthcare) the worse off they were. Looks to me like lockdowns did more harm than good. Unsurprisingly, when you don't offer your people free access to quality healthcare and you then take away their ability to make a living they are going to suffer.
I have noted a lot of cases in which poor urban Filipinos start fever & coughing, and just leave the cities and go to their rural home-villages, to recover or not; never have a CV test. Probably lots of elderly in those barungays, some of whom then sicken & die after catching it; would just be buried by family. They might be recorded as deaths, but not as Covid cases. Local chiefs might want to keep cause-of-death secret, just list it as old-age, because they don't want their area to be declared an outbreak-zone and locked-down. This might drive the reported spike in deaths, without any equal rise in official Covid cases / deaths.
