Best Posts in Forum: COVID-19

The corona virus crisis and all of the news surrounding it from all over the planet can be bewildering at times.
From cardboard coffins being used in Ecuador, to mass graves being dug in Iran and New York City, to praise being heaped on a few countries like Taiwan and Korea for seemingly "winning the war on covid-19", and scorn on many others for being in the "too little, too late" category, or even willfully misinforming the world (China, Iran).
Meanwhile the reported number of cases and dead keep going up, from a couple hundred in Wuhan just 3 months ago to 2.2 million cases today, with reported death rates wildly divergent across the planet, from 0.3% in Singapore to 18.5% in Lombardia (the worst hit region in Italy) and everything in between.
At the same time conspiracy theories, rumours, and outright lies are part of our daily news diet.
So how to make sense of it all?
Well, first of all it might be good to keep in mind that one day's "outrageous headline" (like with the satellite pictures of the mass graves in Iran, which were deemed to be proof that the situation in Iran was much worse than reported), can be another day's "nothing to see here" newsstory (when New york city had to start digging very similar mass graves on Hart Island).
Next aspect is the wild difference in death rates. I think there are reasons to believe that the true deathrate is pretty much a constant across different countries, of between 1 and 2% overall, depending on government policies regarding lockdowns/social distancing, demographics (countries with relatively old populations will suffer higher death rates), urbanisation level (in urban areas the spread will be faster) and hospital/intensive care beds/ventilator capacity. Basically, as long as medical capacity does not get overwhelmed, death rates should remain between 1 and 1.5%.

So why do we see reported death rates in most of Europe between 10 and 15%? The answer must be that because of testing constraints many many infections are simply missed.
I can offer some proof of that. The Netherlands reports around 30,000 cases and roughly 3,500 dead (11.4% mortality). However, sofar the country reports only deaths in hospitals, none outside, like in care homes. They are planning to change that but in the meantime we can use the deaths statistics from the national statistics office to estimate the difference. My rough conclusion is that the true number of deaths for the Netherlands amounts to about 5,500. That would take the mortality rate to 18.3% of the reported cases. Scary number right?
However, there is some good news, the dutch central blood bank has tested all 7,000 blood donors in the first week of April for antibodies for Covid-19 in their blood and found that 3% of them actually had those antibodies. This is an important number, because it is a very strong indication that the true number of infected people in the Netherlands in the middle of March was around 500,000. Now suddenly those 5,500 dead represent only a 1.1% deathrate, not that alarming high reported number.
Yes there are uncertainties (nobody under 18 and none over 70 among blooddonors, so not quite representative) but I believe it is still a strong indication for the true number of infected.
The reason I think it is important for other countries also is that there is not a single good reason to assume that the virus would behave differently on the other side of a border.
So, the true number of infected in almost all countries (everywhere where a high mortality rate is reported) will be much much higher than reported, and the number of people with minor or no symptons is very high (else hospitals in many countries would have been long overwhelmed).
Nevertheless this disease remains a lot more dangerous than the flu, with a death rate that is 10 to 15 times higher, with older people much more vulnerable than younger ones.
At some point I had hope that the climate might stop the virus in the tropics, but that seems to be idle hope now.
Hope that remains is for an existing medicin to be found effective (developing a new one takes just as long as a vaccine).
In the meantime, until a vaccine or medicin is widely available and priced friendly, the world had better be prepared for a quite different 1.5 meters "new normal" without tourism, with a damaged economy (I read quite a few "worse than the 1930's Big Depression" forecasts).
Governments will have to be very careful when lifting (part of) restrictions, because a "second wave" of infections can come quickly on the heels of the current one. Nobody wants that second wave to be a tsunami after all.

 

One reason why the Philippines has one of the lowest numbers of COVID-19 infections is because of the non-availability of testing kits. Although there had been some donations from other countries but these donations quickly run out and test only a fraction of the entire population. There's a fat chance that many of us could be walking around with the infection. It is scary since many Filipinos trust in what the DOH or Department of Health reports. So if the DOH says the country has only round 200 infected cases, Filipinos will be thanking the heavens for that small number compared to the numbers in Italy, south Korea, Iran, etc.

The goal is to flatten the curve and we (esp. here in Dumaguete) are doing everything to ward off the evil coronavirus. We sanitize/disinfect ourselves and our surroundings, we avoid crowds, wear masks, etc. We hope to conquer this challenge soonest by stopping the spread of the virus.

 

well i agree that moderators in general should be diplomatic. what i read is that moderators in general should strive to increase membership in their forum and do what they can to help users enjoy coming to the forum i would imagine most of us have more pros then cons here or we would not stay. i just want to state my general support for NMRN observations and i also consider the post of davy whatever to be in appropriate, trite, et cet. not befitting his role here.

 

Dumaguete has been greatly damaged by publications like Forbes who are saying its the number #1 retirement place in the world,, it is not. There are a lot of people here investing in property with those claims in mind. Rooms and studio apartments on the beach near Dumaguete have been running around 9,000 to 12,000 a month for years and like places in the hills and further out of town were renting for 6,000 to 8,000 a month.. Due to the big hype about living at higher elevations for a cooler climate these are now apartments are no going for 16,000 to 25,000 per month.
Property's that were 150 to 200 peso's a sqmtr in the hills are now going for 1,200 to 1,500 a sqmtr. With no legal right of way overloaded water and electric systems in the vicinity if their are any at all within a 500 meters of the property.. Come with open eyes and look around before making a commitment here..

 

I am thinking that storage is probably ok, even in this part of the world for the Janssen vaccine, since the storage requirements are relatively easy.
According to the latest official information:

Storage Prior to First Puncture of the Vaccine Vial
Store unpunctured multi-dose vials of the Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine at 2°C to 8°C (36°F to 46°F) and protect from light. Do not store frozen. Revised: Jul/08/2021
Unpunctured vials of Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine may be stored between 9°C to 25°C (47°F to 77°F) for up to 12 hours. The Janssen COVID-19 Vaccine is initially stored frozen by the manufacturer, then shipped at 2°C to 8°C (36°F to 46°F). If vaccine is still frozen upon receipt, thaw at 2°C to 8°C (36°F to 46°F). If needed immediately, thaw at room temperature (maximally 25°C/77°F). At room temperature (maximally 25°C/77°F), a carton of 10 vials will take approximately 4 hours to thaw, and an individual vial will take approximately 1 hour to thaw. Do not refreeze once thawed. Storage After First Puncture of the Vaccine Vial After the first dose has been withdrawn, hold the vial between 2° to 8°C (36° to 46°F) for up to 6 hours or at room temperature (maximally 25°C/77°F) for up to 2 hours. Discard the vial if vaccine is not used within these times.

 

The Phils is doing mix n match studies now on Sinovac, so keep your eyes peeled.

"When participants in some cohorts were given a third dose (Sinovac), about six months after the second, neutralising antibody levels after a further 28 days had increased around 3-5 fold from the levels seen four weeks after the second dose, the study showed."
https://www.thedailystar.net/health...er-about-6-months-booster-helps-study-2138051

 

2nd jab today of Sinovac, any jab is better than no jab IMO and happy to have it... will try to get a booster in a few months though...