Best Posts in Thread: Standard and Poor’s Pisses off Duterte

"$1.3 Billion hot money flees in the past 3 weeks" is the head line on the Business section of the Philippine Star on Friday September 30, 2016. Reading the article this is 21% % higher than the 1.05 billon withdrawn in the same period last year. However there is resulting net outflow of $701.12 Million in the first three weeks of September. I am not sure who Duterte plans to blame for this money outflow as seldom does he take responsibility for negative events. .
The most interesting part of the article is that Governor Diwas Guinigundo (BSP Deputy) says "the interim peso deposits stood at P200 billion in the second or third week of September, They're still there in short they were waiting. There were some remittance abroad but if you look at the amount there were deposits." I personally do not know why any money manager would be caught waiting, holding Pesos in large amounts when they have been going down so fast in recent weeks.
The article further states that there was in net" inflow 2 billion of foreign portfolio investments amid the strong macroeconomic fundamentals for the first 8 months of the year (up until August) which is a complete reversal of the net outflow of $211.8 million recorded in the same period of last year." But Duterte was not President until Jun 30, his policies certainly did not effect the investments prior to him winning the elections here, good or bad. The inflows were traced to the "P37 billion influsion made by Japan's largest financial institution, the Bank of Tokyo mitsubishe UFJ Ltd. in excahnge for a 20 person stake in Security Bank Corp as well as P25.13 billion initial public offering of the Cement Maker Cemex,Holding, Philippines, Inc." These transactions were both probably started before the elections. So if I understand this right, then if you remove the Bank of Tokyo mitsubishe UFJ Ltd. transactions they must have been a real loss of P 35 Billion in investments.
Seems just like reporting "mumbo jumbo" to me trying to make Duterte look a little better in the overall perspective. I find it is hard to understand when you have to read between the lines to begin comprehension.
Bottomline: The headline of "$1.3 Billon hot money flees in the past 3 weeks" seems to be more drama than anything, but it does have some reality in it toward the impression that Duterte is having a negative effect on the economic world's impression of the Philippines with his "F*ck you" foreign policy statements. Time will tell the real truth as the "mumbo jumbo" BS will be replaced with reality at some point in time. The real facts will just not be kept hiding.
Thanks for reading.

 

President Duterte said: "I am the president of a sovereign country and I am not answerable to anyone except the Filipino people." Legally, he is absolutely correct. Economically, he will toe the line of the supra-national money cabal, or, sadly, those same Filipino people will suffer the consequence for his arrogance.

 

Yup, pretty big balls as one of the three rating companies that should have had people up to the CEO in jail and fined out of existence for their part in the worldwide Mortgage Backed Securities fraud. The best financial rating you can buy (as the seller of a security, not a buyer)

 

I'm fairly certain the US didn't tell S&P to downgrade the US own credit rating and I doubt the US told them to downgrade the Philippines credit rating. Not to mention it's a fairly good example that the US doesn't influence S&P.

 

My point to this is that WE are the face of the west and I wanted my fellow expats to be aware that if Filipinos feel they are getting screwed over by outside forces they are going to be looking for a face to put on their anger. Duterte's comments and rhetoric can flame these feelings and like in 1986 things can get out of hand very quickly. I personally will be gone from here before it gets that far because I do not intend to relive 1986. Keep your ears open to what the locals are talking about. I hope I am just being paranoid and I don't have to leave.

 

Sounds a bit like short man's syndrome. In the end, as long as someone else is to blame for economic issues in the Philippines, all is good.

 

I agree but what worries me is, the people here deciding to take it out on us since we represent ( in their eyes ) that money cabal you refer to.