Best Posts in Thread: Dollar Up or Down

Not sure if Dustin is still the moderator, but the moderators should PLEASE move this orange monster versus libtards crap to the "controversial subjects." Many expats are living here to AVOID the crappy politics back THERE... And I am appalled (and saddened) at how much s**t in the media (and social media) people accept as gospel...

 

I and my wife move money out of our bank accounts to remittance companies to remit to the Philippines. We have had at least 12 occasions when we have had to phone our banks to justify why they should allow us the transaction (and the sum was always less than $10,000). Once I had to give details from my passport or else "we will freeze your account". Another time we were told it is suspicious that we transfer small amounts at a time and not all the money at once - (but this is what people remitting money do). Seeing as my wife's family name is not the same as mine and we held separate accounts, they were not aware we were connected, but we had the same experiences.

Also, some banks are now refusing to allow customers to buy cryptocurrencies - perhaps they feel is is a big risk BUT it is NOT the banks' money (as you say, Mr W) - they just act as if it is. But they allow people to buy houses, shares and other investments - so why can they decide what is best for other people and which are the 'safe' investments (after all, it is the banks who made a mess in 2008 due to poor investment decisions of their own!)?

Finally, I quote "Money deposited in a bank account is, as established under case law going back more than 200 years, legally the property of the bank, rather than the account holder."

Not paranoia - just a high level of awareness of what is going on in the financial systems.

 

I am not sure the LONG term trend is up - perhaps the short to medium term trend - depending on what you think of as 'long term'. Currency exchange is, of course, not about one currency but is about the two currencies in the exchange, e.g Php and USD. If the Php is weak then most currencies will rise against it, if the USD is strong then most currencies will fall against it. The recent rise in the USD/Php rate is a combination of both of those currency movements. A rising Php rate would cut down the amount you receive per USD - the same would happen if the USD weakens.

I am not sure of the future of either currency (if I was certain then I am soon a millionaire and off to Barbados!) but the trade wars evolving seem to be hurting emerging markets and so the trend might be for Php to fall. It is my guess that at some point there is going to be a major corrective event in world markets and the USD will fall - but when that happens is an unknown to everyone.

There is a financial technique called 'averaging' where, if buying shares, you purchase a few shares every month and not all in one go - you would fail to buy all your shares at the lowest possible price (but then so do the majority of buyers) and would also fail in buying them at the highest possible price (fortunately) but bought them all at an average price somewhere between those two extremes. The same could be said for a currency - exchange some every month (as many ex-pats probably do) and you will not get the most or least but you will get an average somewhere in between. The alternative is to 'guess the market' and even most market 'experts' fail on that score.