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Best Posts in Thread: Philippines Expanded Travel Ban

  1. btd

    btd DI Member

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    I see what you're saying. However, clear perspective is difficult given that we don't have any idea what the true number of positives actually is.
     
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  2. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Quoting figures for the present when the outcome of this disease is unknown, even to experts, is pointless - as is comparing the influenza virus known epidemiology with the unknown coronavirus epidemiology in circulation now.

    What about the facts if we do make comparisons:

    *Current Philippine Covid-19 cases: 140 (40% more than you quoted) and 12 deaths. So near 9% fatality rate of infected cases AND fatality lags behind number of cases. I do accept though that this may be due to a lack of identifying all cases.
    *1918 flu pandemic: Death rate about 5% to 20% - figures differ a lot. At about 500 million cases that was about 27% of the world population. If the current outbreak was the same it means about 2 billion cases. 1918 flu killed an estimated 50 million people (some figures say 100 million). If coronavirus was the same (even at 10%) then it would kill 100 to 400 million people. I am aware that death rates are currently less than that worldwide but too many people are assuming it will remain so - ignoring the possibility of mutation(s) which can be more likely the more times the virus particle is cloned within hosts' cells.

    So no need to panic at this point, and I hope my view that the separate islands of the Philippines is a great bonus in halting the spread proves correct, but certainly not the time for people to argue against the only measures available to help get through this crisis.

    It takes just one person to destroy a life but the whole community needs to work together to save lives.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 16, 2020
  3. Mr. Reddit

    Mr. Reddit DI Member

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    The absurdity of this ban will become clear when the virus has been spread across the major portions of the world and every country is on lockdown, which means that in each country the virus will run it natural course of killing off a very small portion of the population while the rest survive with possible immunity to further infections of viruses in the same family. There still remains the unanswered question as to whether surviving the infection actually provides immunity to further infections or whether a person can be reinfected. Most notably survival usually means that the body has built up enough antibodies to fight off the infection and that the person should be immune. I have not read any definitive comments on this aspect.

    It is beyond absurd that small islands should be quarantined due to the fact that without commerce, all businesses will die along with the population suffering from lack of medicines, medical care, food, etc. I just got back to Siquijor from a RT to Dumaguete to pick up my passport. I am scheduled to return next week to renew my tourist visa. However, there is now word circulating on Siquijor that it will be quarantined because there are now 3 cases of the virus. That means no more transports to or from Siquijor. If anything would precipitate a revolution, it would be causing the mass failure of businesses that can no longer get stock, including food and medicine, and the population that would suffer as a consequence.
     
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  4. redhorse

    redhorse DI Forum Adept

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    This was announced at the same time as the 30 day Manila "travel lockdown", but has not received as much publicity. Still waiting for exact details/clarification.
    The Philippines has extended its travel ban to all countries with confirmed "localized transmission" of Coronavirus. Only Filipino citizens & their dependents, perm. resident holders and diplomats arriving from those countries will be allowed entrance to the Philippines.
    What's noteworthy is that according to the WHO, this list includes the US, Australia, and several other countries not previously affected:
    https://www.cnnphilippines.com/news...untries-with-local-COVID-19-transmission.html
    https://www.rappler.com/nation/254274-philippines-bans-foreigners-novel-coronavirus-hit-countries
     
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  5. PatO

    PatO DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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    Imagine those Hong Kong millionaires who had to rough it without OFW’s to do the grunt work.
     
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  6. Jens K

    Jens K DI Senior Member

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    The problem isn't if you or me are going to die from the virus or not. the problem is that, at some point, the whole health system is going to be overloaded. And this point is reached very quickly in the Philippines. Also data from other countries shows that, for whatever reason, health care workers are affected much more than the general population, which adds to the problem.

    So at some point, there's no capacity to treat completely unrelated health conditions like accident victims or heart problems or whatever else. And that will hit everyone, regardless of age.

    And that is the reason why it needs to be contained and the spread of the virus needs to be slowed down whatever the cost. Especially here, because right now I don't see anybody creating tens of thousands of hospital beds out of thin air in the next few weeks.

    And - relevant here is the number of people requiring hospitalization - this is much more than those who actually die.
     
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    Last edited: Mar 17, 2020
  7. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    I understand your point about how severely this will hit the economy. Many people will be impacted to the point that they may be unable to make their mortgage payment and loose their home. Most airlines will face bankruptcy by the end of May.

    On the other hand the 15% death rate could easily double if healthcare resources are overwhelmed. The current 15% death rate is based on lung ventilators having been available to those who needed them.

    The intent of the government is to slow down the growth of the illness in order to keep the number of infected patients who need ventilators under the number available.

    The good news is that Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong have been able to greatly reduce the rate of infection. Their population has already been trained by SARS.

    Here are two articles about the shortage of lung ventilators.
    https://www.npr.org/sections/health...emic-spreads-will-there-be-enough-ventilators

    https://www.ft.com/content/5a2ffc78-6550-11ea-b3f3-fe4680ea68b5

    Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong
    https://time.com/5802293/coronavirus-covid19-singapore-hong-kong-taiwan/
     
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  8. Roadwitch80

    Roadwitch80 DI Member

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    Their definition of quarantine here is a bit loose. They say lockdown but it’s not really a lockdown. Take a look at Manila. Businesses are still open, people are still coming in and leaving by the droves. Goods are allowed in as well. I don’t understand it really, a bit hard to contain the virus if they’re letting people in and out.
     
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