Best Posts in Thread: THE most likely game changer

The biggest game changer will be a vaccine (a year or more away), new drugs (unlikely for a very long time), combinations of existing drugs (many have been stated as effective but none have yet been selected for mass use) ... or knowing if people are immune.

Knowing the immune status is achieved by ANTIBODY testing - up to now testing is for the ANTIGEN (the virus itself) and this tells the person if he is currently infected.

Testing for the antibody will tell the person if he HAS been infected (even if he was not aware as the symptoms were very mild or non-existent). I queried many times on this forum why they were not doing antibody tests but the answer was they didn't have one! Now they have.

So, if people can be identified as immune (but not currently infected) then those people should (hopefully) be able to go out and return to work. No one knows currently how many that is - it could be millions in a country the size of the UK. They can return a country to nearer normality as they can work, go shopping, visiting cinemas etc.

One major problem I can foresee is how to identify them as, obviously, some people not tested will say they are immune (and many people will have self-tested at home)! The pubs will re-open and be filled 'self-declared immune' who are either (i) immune (good - but not tested so they did not know), (ii) uninfected but not immune and (iii) infected. So '(iii)' will be a great danger to '(ii)'.

The other problem is getting hold of the antibody test kits - let's hope all countries can get hold of kits so that we have a better understanding of the level of immunity within a population and can specifically identify those who are now immune.

Btw, there have been cases of recovered individuals who showed symptoms a second time but the evidence is that they are not spreaders. IF immunity is weak or short-lived then we are back to square one.

 

I am sure everyone here wishes you all the best.

 

Yes, all viruses are different. There are corona viruses out there that are considered "benign"!

There is not enough known about the COVID-19 virus to be sure that once infected and recovered gives any immunity....but based on the general cases of viruses it would seem likely.

But we have a very well-known virus that indeed gets worse if reinfected and that is dengue. It's the reason the Philippines pulled the dengue vaccine from distribution. The science is not complete, but there was evidence that after the vaccine provided "immunity," as subsequent infection would be deadly.

 

The real problem with Corona could be that although antibodies have developed against Corona after undergoing illness, this is precisely a major problem. Because with a second infection with the virus you would not be simply immune, rather there would be a rare overreaction that made everything far worse - the name is Cytokine storm syndrome , an overreaction of the immune system. If a person develops antibodies, the phenomenon ensures that the antibodies do not fight the effect of the virus, but rather intensify it. so, if you survive Corona and it's going to the next round and catches you again you have a rather better chance to die, because your immune system will collapse. If the cytokine storm thesis were correct, Corona would actually be the purest horror virus. The idea of "herd immunity", to which so many experts refer, would also have been done away with.
Just hearsay, I am not a virologist

 

I have been reading a little more about dengue fever: As you will know, there are FOUR different types (strains) of the virus (another source says five). Infection with one will give lifetime immunity to that strain (I don't think anyone can say that is 100%, but I assume it is close). After infection with one strain an infection with any different strain is more dangerous (you appear to know that and I am not trying to scare you) - BUT I have read of people in that position (as you are) might benefit from having a vaccine. Has your doctor discussed that with you? There is conflicting information on it - sometimes a decision like that is based on relative risks.

I am sure you are aware that preventing stagnant water in your area is very important.

In some cases a person may have to examine risks and decide upon courses of action which otherwise they might not have taken - such as relocation. For example, to another country where dengue does not exist or, less dramatically, to parts of the Philippines where it is less common.

 

I've viewed life, certainly since studying microbiology, as a battle between us and the many exterior 'enemies' ready to attack us at every opportunity - thinking of myself as a castle. I also have lived through the time of potential obliteration due to nuclear weapons - but these tiny little b*ggers, the viruses etc, are the ones we should have feared the most.

We have natural defences (our skin (the castle walls), enzymes on the inner surfaces, white blood cells (and the antibodies they produce), the chemicals we make, such as interferon, etc.) and have developed man-made things to help us (vaccines, antivirals, antibiotics (not for viruses, of course), other chemicals which interfere with pathogens, etc) but the planet can be laid low by an object so small it can be seen only with an electron microscope!

Unfortunately, as with other illnesses, the products which sometimes are provided to cure us can also kill us - they used to use arsenic as a 'cure' in past times.

We have also seen that with all the technology we have, we are still 'smaller' than viruses themselves. They can overwhelm us. We are lucky, THIS TIME, that the coronavirus seems not to have a high lethal rate - it is looking like 2% of infected cases (but over a whole population with asymptomatic infections included, that might be much lower).

For all the billions spent on nuclear defence (which I accept is necessary) we really have not spent the money to prepare adequately for diseases such as the current one - and it has cost us financially in a huge way. After the crisis is over there will be much analysis and I am hoping a better preparedness for the NEXT one - because there definitely will be another one.

In the current crisis the only thing we can do is to take care of ourselves and our family - pull up the drawbridge, wear the best armour you have available. In that way, during this scary time, you reduce your risk from maybe 90% (guess) to perhaps 0.001% (another guess).

 

Then come up to JUNOB no cases in 5 years, nor Valencia I understand

 

I'm recovering from hemorrhagic dengue fever, been told by the doctor second time is a lot worse. I'm staying indoors, wearing socks and long trousers and plenty of OFF on the exposed skin.

 

Being 'obligate intracellular parasites' viruses are messing with our nucleic acids (the template of cell production itself) - it is not surprising that after an infection there may be changes that affect the body's reaction to reinfection with the same virus or by different viruses. Many cancers are suspected to have viral origins (obviously primarily due to messing up the DNA/RNA) and we cannot even be sure that infections with other pathogens (bacteria, fungi) are not affected by the effect of previous viral infections.

Viruses are b*st*rds! That is why they are so fascinating.

 

There's also this strange thing that after you recovered from one of the various Dengue strains, you are more likely to run into complications when you contract the other one.