Best Posts in Thread: Delta variant in the Philippines

Some good news for those who are vaccinated

 

Sadly the most likely scenario for the Philippines seems to be what's happening in Indonesia.
What I mean with that is a serious wave of new cases against a backdrop of inadequate medical infrastructure and a low vaccination rate, while most vaccinations are with vaccine that has a rather low efficacy.
To be honest, if you look at what that Delta variant is capable of even in countries with a much higher vaccination rate like the UK and the Netherlands, then the situation looks to be rather bleak.
One of the few positives I see for the Philippines is that other than in Europe, mass tourism is still on hold here for now. I very much doubt though that that will be enough to stop the spread, but hopefully it will be much slower here.

 

https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1460653/ph-logs-first-local-delta-cases-1-dies-10-recover

I read few days ago that all Delta variant cases had been stopped at the airports - but this has now changed.

Now it is (inevitably) here it is going to be very difficult to control. I don't say this to worry people even more but to ensure people think more about personal protection - there is tremendous fatigue after 17 months but this could be the wave that becomes extremely serious.

Of the 16 additional cases detected (giving a new total of 35 cases) 11 have no history of foreign travel. They are not declaring 'local transmission' and use an interesting definition of that, but if you haven't been abroad then IMO you caught it locally (it could be within family groups but we all know how that transmits outwards and onwards).

Three areas (Iloilo, Cdo, Gingoog (near CdO)) have been put into ECQ - so far.

 

Whichever variant becomes dominant in the world is soon going to be dominant here. Vaccine-induced immunity is waning after 6 months for Delta and this country cannot vaccinate quickly enough to give the first shot(s) and then required boosters in time. The situation is in danger of becoming apocalyptic.

 

This article mostly negates the optimism that might be derived from the table in my previous post in this thread: it would seem the cutoff date for the table of August 1 obfuscates the effect the Delta variant will inescapably have.

The article shows:
What is clear is that “breakthrough” cases are not the rare events the term implies. As of 15 August, 514 Israelis were hospitalized with severe or critical COVID-19, a 31% increase from just 4 days earlier. Of the 514, 59% were fully vaccinated. Of the vaccinated, 87% were 60 or older. “There are so many breakthrough infections that they dominate and most of the hospitalized patients are actually vaccinated,”

 

Delta share of sequenced infections is up to almost 70%

 

How is 'a' related? Do you mean they are not doing enough testing to detect overall infected persons early in the infection? But your figures are for the high percentage of hospitalisation necessary and this could point to 'b' OR perhaps these areas are suffering a variant (maybe a new one) which is causing a more severe illness.

My outlook has changed with my new risk assessment - I am now willing to be vaccinated and take the risk of any long-term problems. Delta or other new variants are eventually going to infect us all (vaccinated or not) but vaccination should reduce serious effects in the short to medium term (the long-term is yet unknown). I am just looking for an acceptable vaccine (Janssen being my main choice).

 

I think there is a dangerous development going in our region (Central Visayas), especially in Cebu and Bohol provinces.
When looking at newly reported cases and hospital admissions for those areas I'm getting serious concerns about testing. Cebu province (that does not include the three largest cities Cebu, Mandaue and LapuLapu) reports 363 new cases as per August 11, of which 181 admitted (to hospital) and 182 in isolation. Bohol reports 30 new cases of which 18 hospitalized and 12 in isolation.
These numbers are a big red flag to me, especially since they're not a one off incident.

What I mean is HALF of all new cases are hospitalized? That is totally crazy.
To me that signals one of two things:
a. woefully inadequate testing capacity, or
b. dramatic unwillingness of people to get tested unless they have no choice anymore.

I am willing to bet it is the latter that is the main factor at work here; many will be scared to be told to "isolate" in an LGU facility if tested positive, so they don't get tested at all unless they are very sick already.
Of course the main consequence of this must be that many many cases go undetected. Nothing new in itself but it is apparently much worse than I suspected.
This also puts this report in perspective, where it says: "The infection-detection rate in Philippines was close to 9% on August 2 (Figure 8)." Previously I didn't take the model very seriously with regard to their estimate of undetected cases, but I'm having second thoughts now.