Dumaguete Info Search


Best Posts in Thread: Worrying statistics

  1. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

    Messages:
    13,106
    Trophy Points:
    451
    Occupation:
    FIRE
    Location:
    Valencia
    Ratings:
    +16,069 / 3,796
    Blood Type:
    O+
    Seems like the poorer a country was (along with the level of access and quality of healthcare) the worse off they were. Looks to me like lockdowns did more harm than good. Unsurprisingly, when you don't offer your people free access to quality healthcare and you then take away their ability to make a living they are going to suffer.
     
    • Agree Agree x 4
  2. Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

    Messages:
    974
    Trophy Points:
    321
    Location:
    Dumaguete
    Ratings:
    +1,773 / 123
    Blood Type:
    A+
    2021 shows a sudden and very serious increase in deaths (all causes combined), and the data is only (sort of) complete up to September. Nevertheless total deaths in 2021 are already some 150,000 above the number for all of 2020.
    There is no specification of deaths by cause yet for 2021, but it seems very doubtful that will shed much light when published; for previous years there's always some 25-30% reported as "other causes".
    upload_2022-2-1_13-9-20.png

    Here's a closer look at the data per month for recent years.
    upload_2022-2-1_13-14-33.png
    I made the graphs myself, but the data is from Statista.com (for population numbers) and from the PSA (Philippine Statistics Authority) for the numbers on deaths.

    Some speculative thoughts:
    The dip in 2020 compared to the trend might be caused by less traffic deaths, and less people catching something that would have otherwise killed them both because of the long lockdowns.
    The excess deaths in 2021 might in a small part be caused by a catch up effect in old people, but there is no way to explain away the steep 20% rise in 2021 from the trendline, which, by the time the data is complete, will be more like a 30% rise.
    I haven't read any news report concerning this development, but it sure makes me think that the official reported covid deaths (54,000 cumulative deaths since early 2020) are woefully short of the true number.
     
    • Informative Informative x 2