Best Posts in Thread: A considered opinion, including quarantine.

There seems to be mixed views with regards to quarantine.

But I am happy (at present) that I am on an island in the Philippines, rather than in Europe or almost anywhere else.

I am also happy with not being able to travel and am pleased that other people cannot travel (although many will disagree with me, this is essential for the benefit of society). Some write that quarantine/lockdown, whatever it is called, is bad for business and bad for food and medical supplies, but I do not imagine for one moment that the government intends to shut off supplies of food and medicines - however, I would insist no person bringing those items into a 'quarantined' island does so without wearing a face mask and is made to sterlilise hands at point of entry.

The case of the Councillor from Tayasan is a sad one, but that area could have been isolated in some form for the 14 days assumed to be necessary for contacts to show symptoms.

If travel is eliminated or reduced onto Negros and precautions are taken with those who essentially need to enter the island, plus any area with a suspected case is isolated, then we may get through this with minimum casualties.

I have been following this along with most of you since the early days and have read some amazing amounts of complacency - people arguing more for their personal freedom than for the good of the masses, poo-pooing the ideas of face masks (even some experts, who justify it on the grounds that wearing a face mask will encourage people to touch their face - as if not wearing one will stop what is a habit with everyone!), dismissing ideas of viral mutation when no-one has a clue at present and comparing this virus to influenza, when they are NOT the same.

I have specialist training and experience in this field and I understand the dangers - I just wonder why, when everything is still a puzzle, that people with no knowledge seem to dismiss things that just MIGHT help.

I will be wearing a face mask every time I leave my house as well as if anyone has to enter my house and I will go into self-isolation if the virus cases start to rise locally.

If in 3 months time the complacent tell me I had nothing to worry about and they were right all along to dismiss the potential of this outbreak of an unknown INCURABLE lethal pathogen then I will consider nominating them for a Nobel prize for being fully aware of the unknown. But I will not regret for one moment my decision to take this extremely seriously - not with panic but with a considered view.

Since the early 70's I have, along with others of course, known that one day a viral outbreak of this nature would occur - there have been false alarms, but now it is here. We would be unwise as individuals to fail to take it seriously enough to protect ourselves, our loved ones and the people around us where we live.

 

To read most any NYT article, press F9 and then F5 (in Windows).

 

Nope, to little to late!

You fail to realize that it is herd immunity that enabled the social distancing model to work. The balance is the percentage of recovered (immune) people to the percentage of movers. It is estimated that this will require about 65% to have been infected and recover. Time runs out during the model you reference when the sick and recovered reach 40%. (approx 25% recovered , 15% sick) But in the model when the time runs out people are still getting infected by the 15% of those who are sick. If you let this model run until people stop getting sick then you will end up with about 65% of the population having recovered. Hence the herd immunity not social distancing being the main factor.

This level of social distancing will hurt the local economy for to long and will not be enforced long enough.

Sure, you can slow down the rate of local transmission but it will not stop until the community has achieved herd immunity.

At this point I only see two choices.

1) Lock down and keep the virus out of the community until a vaccine is created and given to 65% of the population. (Stop unnecessary to and from the island.) this may be too late for Negros.

2) Have the older population self isolate while the government infects all of the younger people. The death rate for younger people is extremely small. This will create herd immunity to protect the older population. In the end fewer people will die this way.

In Wuhan social distancing is working to slow the infection rate. The problem is for how long will they enforce draconian measures. It will be at least another year before a vaccine is deployed. "The real test will be whether the virus flares again when children return to classrooms and workers to factories, and commuters start taking buses and subways."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/07/world/asia/china-coronavirus-cost.html

 

Let's talk about self preservation. What is the likelihood that you will die? Priorities should be given. Older people or people with compromised immune systems should be given priority over young healthy adults. Lot's of people die from the flu, should we not be hoarding during flu season regularly? Here is an example of what a lockdown looks like in Spain. Shopping, doctors and work are a good majority of the reasons I leave my house. Not very restrictive in the big scheme of things.



In many cases panic is as much of an enemy as the thing causing the panic. Let me tell you when I will start to panic and that's when I can't wipe my *ss or eat....

Add to that, take away my livelihood and way to provide for my family and see what happens.

 

I don't agree with Dr Schaffner - and you will find experts are split on the subject. My view is that the mask will filter out droplets and, as it is not possible to change it every 2 hours (not sure why that is essential if a person is walking around and trying to avoid the occasional sneeze and to avoid touching the mouth with hands) due to availability, I line mine with tissue and change that regularly (mainly because of saliva and normal mouth bugs).

I am happy if the experts who don't agree with wearing a mask continue to do so - it is their freedom to choose - but I will continue to wear one and I think I will survive when some of them are dead. That is my serious opinion. I just cannot see any good reason not to wear one. Hope people will write here and give me a reason - but weighing it against the touching of the mouth and the avoidance of stray droplets in the air. If in doubt then surely wear one.

As for experts, the UK was reported to be due to allow the virus to infect 60% of the population to achieve herd immunity - that is about 36 million infected people, with perhaps 7 million seriously ill and perhaps 500,000 dead (all these figures are uncertain as I have read nowhere of the number of asymptomatic infections - which is one of the obvious things that the 'experts' should have measured by testing random samples for specific antibodies). This idea of infecting 36 million people was, apparently, based on the advice of the 'chief expert' (the Chief Medical Officer) - so good that he received a Knighthood. After 200+ scientists wrote how appalled they were by this very risky idea, it seems it has been dropped. Good job that expert did not get his way.

 

The challenge is more one of management than anything. There are people who will over react and that will lead others to over react and before you know there is chaos. It's a bit of the self-fulfilling prophecy or the heard mentality. There is plenty of toilet paper, water and food. The issue is people are stocking up for weeks to months and depleting the supply. If people got what they needed there would be plenty to go around. I almost think you need to educate, but down play, so all these doomsday people don't get spun up. The other way is to strictly limit what people buy. I was in the store and there was a limit of 2 packages of toilet paper. A guy was buying 6 and saying each child with him was buying 2. There is no shortage of this stuff, just an artificial shortage created by unnecessary panic. In general, panic causes more problems than it solves.

For example on toilet paper hoarding:
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-05/column-coronavirus-panic-buying
https://www.latimes.com/business/story/2020-03-14/coronavirus-will-we-run-out-of-toilet-paper