US Admiral John Aquilino, head of the Pentagon's Indo-Pacific command, warned that a Chinese invasion of Taiwan "is much closer to us than most think".
https://www.reuters.com/world/china...ation-with-taiwan-partys-birthday-2021-07-01/ "BEIJING/TAIPEI, July 1 (Reuters) - Chinese President Xi Jinping pledged on Thursday to complete "reunification" with self-ruled Taiwan and vowed to "smash" any attempts at formal independence, drawing a stern rebuke from Taipei, which lambasted the Communist Party as a dictatorship."
I remember a very similar situation (and conversation here) a few years ago. This is not the first time China has harassed Taiwan with their Navy or Air Force. China didn't invade then, I doubt they will now. An invasion of Taiwan and conventional war would be devastating for everyone involved, no one would really have an upper hand and there would likely be no real winners, politically or economically. I think China and the West know this and I believe China would rather use political and economic pressure on Taiwan. For the sake of my investments I really hope this can gets kicked down the road and a more peaceful solution is found. But maybe this will be the hill China and the world dies on.
The past and current political posture is that the US can not and politically will not come to Taiwan's aid if they are attacked by China. On the other hand the US will do what it can to assist the Taiwanese in developing or purchasing the weapons needed to defend itself. The people of Taiwan are very smart and capable. Taiwan has been producing a counter strike capability by developing a indigenous missile industry. This includes surface to air, cruise and ballistic missiles. The only thing that will keep China at bay will be if they perceive that there would be a high cost in attacking Taiwan. Losing half of the PLA navy in port to a missile counter strike would probably be considered too much. https://thediplomat.com/2021/03/taiwan-mass-producing-new-long-range-missile/ https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sky_Bow https://missilethreat.csis.org/country/taiwan/
Yes - many countries dominated China even 100 years ago and sent gunboats hundreds of miles up the Yangtze (not likely to try that now!). Most areas of the World had had dominant Empires at some point in history (British, American, Spanish, Greek, Roman, Mongol, etc) and many are now a speck of what they were (Greece for example). But the Chinese Empire is now on the rise, both financially and militarily. The corralling of China is growing apace (including dumping them out of technological businesses in many countries, such as the UK and nuclear power stations) as well as AUKUS (where those Australian subs can be converted to use nuclear weapons in the future, whatever the given intent is now). But we all know from history that if you put a country in a corner it acts like a fearful animal and strikes back - the trick is to contain China (and its new pal Russia) just enough.
