Check In When You Can

My side of the street down to Paddy's store no power. Across the street power on.

 

You are right to criticize the Philippine method of typhoon (hurricane) warning. In the Philippines the projected storm damage is communicated differently than in the USA. The Philippine system is more complex and as a result hardly any warning gets communicated.

In the USA hurricanes (typhoons) are categorized (1-5) based on the power of the storm. There is little detail of how bad the storm will be in different locations. Only the full strength of the storm is reported. This has the result of scaring the s^!t out of everyone. Even those who are not near the path of the hurricane. Looking back this is a good thing.

In the Philippines there is an attempt to categorize how bad the typhoon will be in different locations. The signals (1-5) are assigned to specific areas based on geography and how far away from the path of the typhoon. The intensity of Philippine signals (1-5) and US categories (1-5) are very similar. The only difference is that signals are based on location and categories are based on the strength of the storm.

Officially at the last minute, Cebu was signal 4, and Dumaguete signal 3. Bayawan was signal 3 (should have been 4) because it was on the windward side of the mountains.

The strength of Odette was accurately forecasted 6 days prior to landfall as a category 4. At that time it was expected to make a direct hit on Dumaguete. Technically when it made landfall on Mindanao it broke the threshold of a category 5. The problem is that it is easier to predict the intensity of the storm but not the path. Because signals are based on the location of the path, the forecasters had to wait until it got closer and the path was more accurately predictable. This essentially puts off the signal notice until the last moment.

The signal system is too complex. Better to just scare the s^!t out of everyone with the maximum intensity of the hurricane.

 

I hear there's a good chance a Marcos will be president again, so at least they have that going for them.

 

Gomez street and that area behind Paddy's have no eletricity, massive damage on electric cabels, most down on the ground, they have water. I live next to Gomez street on the beach, we have electric and water, no wifi, technician been here, maybe next year wifi will be back, I just get a prepaid Globe wifi router, it works well for now, live in area where signal from both Globe and Smart is on/off, but happy with the prepaid router, wifi is important, connection to family and friends and what's going on in the world outside the barangay

 

Agreed, let everyone prepare for the worse and complain that it was much to do about nothing later. And unless the country has some detailed doppler radar and can tell brgy by brgy what to expect (never going to happen here) then best to have everyone get a full day to clear overhanging branches, get a bottle or 2 of water, and just be ready.
We know Bayawon was hit hard because we can see it from our terrace. We used the notices for them to get ready since we are actually closer to them than Siaton (and on the water).

Leave it to a 3rd world country to overcomplicate and confuse things

 

Err, no. The first warning of what was then a TD (tropical depression) was issued on December 13, so 3 days before landfall.
The storm was then predicted to grow into a cat2.
It underwent a rapid intensification process just hours before landfall, ultimately resulting in the super typhoon.

I wouldn't say that it's too complex, but it is incomplete, because just like the US system it only looks at maximum sustained wind, not at expected rainfall (which is arguably a potential bigger hazard). Moreover, because like you said it is difficult to predict the path of the storm accurately days in advance, the updates from Pagasa should be more frequent when the storm draws closer. Once every 6 hours is inadequate for a storm that moves a distance of 200 km in that time.

 

My apologies for the suffering in the phils ,it is certainly a tough place to live these days , unfortunately I dont see the crazy weather over there improving anytime soon .
I have lived with intermitent power in somalia 30 years ago and a few other african "tinpot" countries ,I was working so no issue .
I have lived in bali for the last 15 years , it aint perfect , but thankfully the power is "rock solid stable " I have not the patience to listen to generators which you guys need .
You have my respect !

 

Agreed, but I think the problem in the Philippines goes much deeper than their political issues. It is the poster child for how well "trickle down" does not work. The haves (which includes many politicians) benefit from the cheap labor. Much of the damage I have seen was with the native construction. The second most seems to be improperly secured corrugated steel roofs, that become a sail when the wind gets under it. Construction, which is a direct correlation to income, is a good indicator of outcome. Flooding is the third cause......as they say location, location. Can you imagine what a Cat 4 hurricane would do to New Orleans if the standard construction was Nipa huts. Again the poor bear the brunt. I guess the $64k peso question is....is it their own fault?