Best Posts in Thread: Consequences for APOR 191

Yes The Best Dumaguete
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PublicBREAKING: The Department of Health in Region VII announced in a bulletin tonight that Negros Oriental has 61 new COVID-19 infections.

The details of these cases are expected to be announced in a press briefing by the provincial IATF tomorrow, November 13, 2020.

Negros Oriental has the highest number of new cases in Central Visayas today, November 12, latest DOH-7 data show. #NewsBite | via Raffy Cabristante, 106.3 Yes The Best News Editor

 

Something to think about, in preprint so going through peer review.


<snip>The first interesting finding: Children are spreading the virus amongst themselves and also to adults. Second: The greatest risk for infection among the people studied in the two southern Indian states of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh is a long bus or train ride.

The attack rate — or the risk of transmission from a primary case to someone else — was 80% for passengers sitting next to an infected person on a bus or train for more than 6 hours without a mask. By comparison, there was only a 9% chance of an infected person giving the virus to another member of their household. The chances of a person passing on the virus in a hospital or clinic was 1.2% and the attack rate was just 2.6% for interactions in the general community.

In fact most people — 71%, according to this study — appear to have never passed the virus on to anyone. Given that the outbreak continues to grow, this means there are a small minority of patients responsible for the vast majority of spread.

"Some people just transmit more than other people do because they shed virus," says Ramanan Laxminarayan, the director of the Center for Disease Dynamics, Economics and Policy in New Delhi and one of the lead authors of the study, published this week in the journal Science.

"We've never had a good handle on [superspreaders], and certainly no large-scale study," he says. "Here in this study, we found that 8% of the people who were infected were responsible for 60% of the infections that grew out of these primary cases."<snip>

 

COVID CASES DROP TO 2; 44 RELEASED FROM QUARANTINE

After repeat swab RT-PCR tests, City Health Officer Dr. Maria Sarah B. Talla confirms that 5 COVID-19 patients tested negative and are deemed to have recovered.
Dr. Talla also informed Mayor Felipe Antonio Remollo, Chairperson of the City’s Inter-Agency Task Force on Emerging Infectious Diseases, that following their recoveries the number of active COVID-19 positive cases has now dropped to just 2.
The 4 new recoveries are members of the same family while the other is is a 27-year-old Male, who was exposed to a COVID-19 Positive case from San Carlos City.
Also today, 24 individuals are quarantined in the different isolation facilities as Persons Under Monitoring or PUMs.
In contrast, 44 PUMs completed today the 14-day quarantine without any medical incident, thus cleared to return to their families.
Of the 24 new PUMs: 5 are OFWs from Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Panama and Japan; 17 Locally Stranded Individuals from Cebu City, Makati City, Manila, Pasig City, Dapitan City, Cavite and Siquijor and 2 Returning Overseas Filipinos from Norway and Mexico.
Meanwhile, of the current 245 PUMs: 150 are in designated hotel facilities, 38 are in the community isolation center, while 57are in barangay isolation centers.
None of the PUMs seen and examined by the City Health personnel has shown signs and symptoms of ILI.

 

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JUST IN: Negros Oriental has six new COVID-19 infections, provincial IATF ground commander Dr. Liland Estacion said in a press briefing this morning.
Four of the new cases are from Bayawan City, one is from Guihulngan City, and one is La Libertad Municipal Treasurer Elenita Caballero, who gave her consent to disclose her name publicly to help contact tracing efforts.
Six new recoveries were also reported: five in Dumaguete City and one in La Libertad.
The total case count in Negros Oriental is now at 378, with 142 active cases, 228 recoveries and nine deaths. #NewsBite | via Raffy Cabristante, 106.3 Yes The Best News Editor

 

What am I? Many would give you a variety of answers to that one - perhaps I might scrape one that is flattering (even if I have to write it myself).

My background is a Degree in Microbiology with a specialism in the medical side (we could choose between medical or industrial - I chose medical but then benefited from the alcohol the industrial students produced on a grand scale!). My main aim in studying microbiology was to concentrate on viruses as that had been an interest of mine since the age of 11/12 - I subsequently worked in a virus research laboratory. This was all many years ago and, as they say, I probably have forgotten more than I knew! It did give me the insight, though, to buy a supply of N95 masks in 2011 and bring them with me to the Philippines in 2015. It was always a case of 'when, not if' for a major viral pandemic. I retain an overall understanding of many medical issues, not only those caused by pathogens, but even with that, I still research before I post here because we only know what we think we know and I want to avoid giving any false information. Some may think it unfair or unkind to challenge some postings but if I say motorbikes run on potatoes then I would expect those who know better to correct me (although I suspect there is a motorbike somewhere which does run on potatoes, or the alcohol distilled from them!). On a major issue such as health, I find it difficult to ignore inaccurate information as that may have a serious impact on a person's actions and consequently their health (I constantly rebuffed claims by some Forum members that it was pointless to wear masks, until that eventually died out because they had to). If a posting is very full of inaccuracies then I let it go as I guess most people realise anyway, otherwise it is a bit like a teacher filling a student's book with red marks - both pointless and demotivating. So you may say I have an unfair advantage, but no more than any other member here writing about a topic in which they have specialist knowledge and experience.

I think it great that people who perhaps knew little about science or diseases, specifically virus diseases, are now interested enough to read up on the subject - maybe after the pandemic is 'controlled' (whatever form that will be in) we will have billions more scientists.

 

<snip>Coronaviruses are a group of related RNA viruses that cause diseases in mammals and birds. In humans and birds, they cause respiratory tract infections that can range from mild to lethal. Mild illnesses in humans include some cases of the common cold (which is also caused by other viruses, predominantly rhinoviruses), while more lethal varieties can cause SARS, MERS, and COVID-19. In cows and pigs they cause diarrhea, while in mice they cause hepatitis and encephalomyelitis. There are as yet no vaccines or antiviral drugs to prevent or treat human coronavirus infections.<snip>

I think there's a link enough there that it goes beyond theory, it's fine to be skeptical, but most of what I read thinks it will go the way of common cold or flu. It may roam around the world for years. Who knows? All educated spec. Right now we should focus on what's down the road. We're heading into sizeable out break territory. Me no like.

Added: I may have confused flu and the cold.

 

A "cocktail of viruses" gives the impression that each incident of the common cold is due to this "cocktail" - 'cocktail' being a mixture. In fact, there are more than 200 types, or strains, of virus (mostly rhinoviruses) giving symptoms which are termed 'the common cold' in the same way that 'cancer' is a term for a 'condition' caused by many different things, including viruses. In both cases each individual case will probably have a separate cause (e.g. only one type of virus, one cancer trigger), although it is possible a person is coincidentally infected or affected by more than one.

There is no reason why every respiratory virus should mutate to be a cause only of the common cold as respiratory viruses target different areas of the body - the common cold being a fan of the nose. As viruses are principally nucleic acid, there are ways in which their nucleic acid can combine with other nucleic acids, from the host and from other viruses within a host, but that new combination might then not code correctly for the protective coat, so be ineffective at attaching to new cells and never replicate itself.