Best Posts in Thread: Corona Virus - as of 4 feb

The Wuhan Institute of Virology lab is located just 20km from the fish market that is the claimed source of the virus. The first 14 reported cases had no contact with the fish market. For the past year the WIV has been using CRISPR technology to modify the corona virus in bats. They actually published several papers on their work. Analysis of the RNA of this new virus shows that it is a bat originated virus, and has a new gene element in the RNA structure that effects the proteins of the spikes on the virus making it extra virulent. The lab that did this analysis says this is not a genetic anomaly that could have happened by spontaneous mutation. The new gene element discovered in the virus is nearly identical to a gene from the HIV virus. A cocktail of HIV medications has so far been found to be the most promising treatment.

Okay, who knows, maybe all of that stuff is just coincidental.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/01/24/us-warned-virus-escape-lab-near-coronavirus-epicentre-12114591/

 

Some good news for our area at last: out of the 23 quarantained persons in the Dumaguete area 20 have completed their 14 day quarantaine yesterday, all without showing illness. One more will complete their 14 days today and the last two on sunday.
https://cebudailynews.inquirer.net/...-complete-14-day-quarantine-no-n-cov-symptoms
Also keep in mind that there's still only 5 persons (if my information is correct) in hospital here, of which 4 already tested negative for the virus (still awaiting results of a second test). The fifth still waiting for results of the first test.
I mention the "still only 5" because it would seem unlikely that more patients would surface from contacts of the initial 2 chinese patients and these 5. With the incubation time of max 14 days we would have already seen more if there had been further spread.
Obviously this doesn't mean we can sound the "all clear" yet, but at least it seems likely at this time that the visit of the two chinese infected people didn't have disastrous consequences for our area.

 

Since this seems to be the main thread now, here are new travel guidelines from Philippines DOT based on yesterday's expanded quarantine announcement. There are some significant changes - and of course, as usual, probably subject to change and interpretation!

"In line with the imposition of an Enhanced Community Quarantine and the Stringent Social Distancing Measures over the entire Luzon, including the National Capital Region (NCR), the following guidelines shall be implemented effective 12:00 AM of 17 March 2020 until 12:00 AM of 13 April 2020:
1. MRT-3, LRT-1, LRT-2, and PNR shall suspend its operations;
2. Operations of land transport modes such as public utility buses, jeepneys, taxis, Transport Network Vehicle Service (TNVS), FX, UV Express, Point-to-Point (P2P) buses, and Motorcycle Taxis shall be suspended;
3. The DOT aviation sector shall let foreigners depart (outbound) from the Philippines within 72 hours upon the effectivity of the Enhanced Community Quarantine;
4. Airport operation shall be limited to outgoing flights carrying foreigners and tourists. Filipinos are not allowed to go outside the country;
5. Inbound flights will only be for repatriating Filipinos;
6. Land, air and sea travel of uniformed personnel for official business, especially those transporting medical supplies, laboratory specimens related to the COVID-19, and other humanitarian assistance, shall be allowed;
7. Only 1 (one) person per household is allowed to go outside their homes to buy basic necessities. Use of private vehicles for this purpose shall be allowed; and
8. Media vehicles and reporters shall be allowed to travel within the community quarantine area, provided that they secure a special media pass from the PCOO.
All other specific details or requests for clarification shall be discussed and clarified in another IATF meeting to be held tomorrow."

 

Sitting in Bo’s Coffee reading this. No masks on staff or customers. Thankfully, no one coughing.

 

This is, of course, correct - anything that kills its host is acting against itself - but mutations do not happen in response to that fact. It takes the organism time to evolve to reduce its impact on the host (survival of those types which allow the host to continue as a spreader) - by which time the host species may have died out! (Although it is likely that after a certain % of deaths, enough immune hosts will be present to give herd immunity and/or people will be in self-imposed isolation). If cases in this country were in the thousands then myself and my family would already be self-isolated - and I do have knowledge and experience in this subject.

It is interesting to know the number of total infections: sub-clinical, clinical but mild, clinical and serious, dead - but we should focus as ordinary people on how many people are seriously ill and how many died. That is the only evidence we need to make a decision to self-isolate - as I said earlier, if there were now thousands of cases in this country, and especially if the death rate was very high, I would be in self-isolation and not come out for months if necessary. But if known infections remain low and deaths a small percentage then there is no need to take extreme measures just yet.

But I am concerned a little at not seeing cases in countries with poor health services - as in many African countries. China invests heavily there, so do they have many Chinese workers? Have they had zero infections? Or have had infections but failed to identify them? Or have they concealed them?

 

But if the virus particles are carried within a droplet (most likely scenario) then a mask may reduce the chance of the droplet passing through, the virus particle being n0n-motile.

The concerns I have are that masks are not easily available (if at all) and people will have a limited number and have to re-use them, probably over a long period of time. Ideally a face mask should be discarded because 1) It may have absorbed droplets containing virus particles and so is a bio-hazard at that point 2) The inner part of the mask will become wet and contain a variety of microbes (bacteria especially) from the wearer's mouth and nose - these may reproduce within the liquid (not viruses as they are unable to) and be inhaled into the body the next time it is used. These will be in greater numbers and so may be enough to cause an infection, even though they originated from that person (obviously, sharing used masks with others is a very big no-no). This problem could be reduced by lining the inside of the mask with a tissue and disposing it after wearing it - even perhaps replacing it at times during the day.

There is also a case, if you have only a small number of masks of RESTING them - viruses cannot reproduce, and often not even survive, outside the body. So by putting a mask aside for a day or more - perhaps in a breathable box to stop mould formation, but not in the fridge or freezer as they may help preserve any microbes present inside and outside the mask - may help the mask to be safer for re-use. This helps dry the mask out and most microbes cannot survive without water. Just an idea.

 

For daily updates, recommend:
https://www.doh.gov.ph/2019-nCoV

Contains links to "Daily Tracker"... This shows 14 admitted PUI's and 1 discharged, along with 1 confirmed, now discharged case.. Not sure if this contains "quarantined." Note that the Chinese tourist died in Manila, so not shown as C Visayas.... Apologize for inaccurate figures above. Duma is Central Visayas, not Western.

 

So, really, they don't know what the eventual outcome will be - and why should they be able to when this is a new virus and they have had little chance to study it. So I am not sure giving odds at this point is very valid. I was very surprised to read "Dead people don’t transmit viruses" as that is untrue - they tend not to wander around infecting others (except in 'zombie' movies) but they can be a deadly source of infection from body fluids (Ebola being an example). Getting fluid from a dead person is a 'transmission'.

The big concern is the tendency of RNA viruses to mutate - perhaps the more types of coronaviruses circulating could mean an over-lap of immunity or it could mean a greater chance of some recombination within that group.

No one (without a single exception) really knows the extent of the current outbreak or the future of this viral disease - all we can do, and I am sure most people are fed up reading this, is to take it seriously and take precautions.

 

https://jameslyonsweiler.com/2020/01/30/on-the-origins-of-the-2019-ncov-virus-wuhan-china/

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/202...-not-be-source-novel-virus-spreading-globally

It is almost certain that the source of the virus was the lab. The question is, what were they doing? On the positive side, they may have been working on a new vaccine, or on the dark side, they were working on biological warfare. Of course everyone is saying this is not the case, what would you expect them to say?

It is also almost certain that the numbers are way way worse than is being reported. There was a video with an interview with a doctor in China (has now been taken down) ... he said when he came in for his shift there were 120 patients waiting. 40 of them had coughing and sore throat but no fever and so he sent them home. Of the remaining 80, they all had fevers and he selected the worse five cases to admit to the hospital because that was all the open beds that were available and sent the rest home to stay in isolation and self-treat. At the end of his shift he had to fill out an official report in which he reported the number of new cases he had seen: he put down 5, because that is how many were admitted and tested to be confirmed. Multiply that scenario times every doctor at every hospital and you get a sense of how unreliable the numbers are that China is reporting.