Best Posts in Thread: Corona Virus - as of 4 feb

The article states: "A woman in her 60s who arrived back in Australia on March 3, and who tested positive for the virus, is believed to have returned from the Philippines. Her travel details are being obtained and will be disclosed if she posed a risk to any other passengers on her flight." It says it believes she returned from the Philippines it doesn't say she came from the Philippines. This may be because she is a Filipino (which are a large community living in Australia) I have been trying to search for confirmation of this on Australian media but have not yet succeeded. You may be right with your assumptions of undiagnosed local transmission but your assumptions may be premature.

 

Few use masks.
Hotels and restaurants have less people, especially outside city center.

No checkpoints , unlike I experienced a lot before outbreak

People going about as usual, to work, to school etc. Had some days where school was closed due to upset parents, open again now. I think you won't see any difference in traffic pollution now, meaning the traffic same.

This is my observations

 

I have always (at least the last 50 years) believed that colds, flu, and the NCP (the last two months) are all viruses which are generally transmitted thru sneezing and coughing, the aerosol (or whatever) either being inhaled by another, or getting on surfaces like doorknobs, or touching. I saw one estimate that the virus from a sneeze has a range of some 3 meters, and will last on metal for 6 or more hours, fabric about the same. That is why it is so important to wash often, avoid touching handles, and don't touch your face.. If you see someone coughing or sneezing without covering their mouth, run the other direction. I saw a foreigner (like me) cough at the other end of the aisle at Robinson's without covering it a couple days ago, almost whacked him upside the head, idiot. I turned around and went the other way....

The difference now is the virility of the virus. We are lucky that so few are infected here (I hope the government isn't lying.)... If you want to see the result of Chinese officials trying not to lose face and coverup the virus, the below is truly sad: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/09/world/asia/coronavirus-family-china.html. This could have been us...

 

More information on those possibly exposed in Dumaguete and Dauin:
MetroPost 7 Feb:
https://dumaguetemetropost.com/hotel-staff-airline-crew-placed-under-observation-p11813-422.htm

"...Employees of the hotel in Dumaguete City and the beach resort in Dauin, Negros Oriental, who may have come in contact with the Chinese national confirmed to have contracted the novel coronavirus, have been placed on home arrest while a team from the Department of Health will evaluate their conditions. (See link above for the remainder of the article..)......."

 

Yes, the flu kills many more people. And you'll find that those deaths from influenza/pneumonia consist of 10 times as many 65+ than under 65 year olds.
So if you're on the wrong side of 65 the flu is pretty dangerous (which is why doctors advise older people to get a flu shot, even if it only offers protection against the flu virus strains that were most prevalent the previous winter).
However, even if we assume for now that this new virus is no more contagious than a seasonal flu (which is something we don't really know yet), then it still seems smart to be careful for a while, because "if" you get infected with this N-Cov virus, then it is suddenly a lot more dangerous than having the flu. The death rate isn't really known yet, but it seems plausible it is at least 10 times the mortality of a seasonal flu (0.1%).
The reason I say the death rate is unknown is because while the numbers from Wuhan indicate a mortality rate of close to 4.5% sofar, that percentage will be heavily influenced by at least three factors:
1. hospitals being overwhelmed
2. shortage of medical supplies, including test sets, at least initially
3. the many people who have only mild symptons and possibly decide against going to the hospital to get tested.
This obviously speaks for a much lower overall mortality rate longer term, as also evidenced by the already much lower mortality outside Wuhan. On the other hand, the number of seriously ill patients is still in the thousands.

Experts seem to disagree about the possibility to contain this outbreak, some say it is too early to call, some claim the measures in China go a long way to keep the lid on further serious spread, some say it might be already too late for containment measures.
In short: we just don't know enough at this time.

 

@Edward K I understand you want facts, me to.
For me I love facts but in their absents I look at what facts I have and then try and connect the dots.
Let me try and connect the dots.
There is a shortage of surgical glove in town so the news is "the virus is spread by direct contact". Virus propagation is not my native language. As far as I know corona type viruses are spread through droplets from coughs and sneezes. Tell people anything so they don't panic.
Airlines stop flying to/from China. I don't think they did that on a whim (or a FB post). Someone told them "shut it down".
Countries don't start putting their citizens in quarantine for 14 days because they are returning from China for no good reason.

I'm going to have to make up some data but you will see my point: 100 dead and 10000 infected. The mortality rate is 1%. WRONG.

It should read 1000 infected 2 weeks ago 100 dead today. Mortality rate 10%.
Frankly this sh*t scares the crap out of me.

I'll just stay close to home until there are some FACTS, I'll deal with them when they are known.

 

Since one earlier post is in ex-pat, and Glenda's is down to vaccines, I'm just stupid enuf to think I should start a new thread, hoping to stick to REAL NEWS ONLY:

SO FAR, I have seen NO NEWER INFO than:
INCUBATION PERIOD is up to 14 days
Since it may be contagious PRIOR to symptoms, the ONLY way of stopping the pandemic is to quarantine (or self quarantine) for 14 days. This is the way they stopped the SARS and MERS, by stopping continued transmission.

Has anyone seen any OFFICIAL info (please no filipino neighbor gossip) on the status of the people at the Dumaguete hotel and the Dauin resort who were exposed on Jan 23-24th (11 days ago). There MUST be some news by now, even "no symptoms" ?? Is there an official website ?? No official announcement is criminally stupid.

The death in manila is the boyfriend of the Chinese tourist who came together thru Cebu and Dumaguete 11 days ago.

 

According to the latest John's Hopkins newsletter there was a study that showed that previously infected but recovered macaques were immune to another infection.

"The second study describes the potential for re-infection in rhesus macaques who had been infected and recovered. The study reintroduced the SARS-CoV-2 virus to the macaques and found that none showed notable viral loads five days after the reintroduction. The researchers suggest that these findings provide evidence that initial SARS-CoV-2 infection could offer protective immunity for those re-exposed. The duration of that protection is not known."

That's at least something I guess.

 

state of calamity in Negros Oriental for now - I copy the facebook post from the local government and hope it is visible for everyone