Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Edward K, Feb 3, 2020.
The reason for those high numbers is the vastly higher exposure rates of the world population seasonal flu viruses, even if they are less deadly on an individual basis. In the case of n-CoV, the whole idea is to contain the spread so that exposure to the general population remains low. WHO and governments are in fact doing just that and it remains the responsibility of the population to protect themselves by washing hands, avoiding large public gatherings (as directed by health authorities and wearing masks to help prevent the spread if one is sick). The only reason that the Spanish Flu was so severe, reducing the average lifetime of Americans by 17 years, was that authorities did not succeed in containing the spread of the virus. In the case of n-CoV, harsh containment methods are in effect which means there is NO cause for panic.
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Yes, the flu kills many more people. And you'll find that those deaths from influenza/pneumonia consist of 10 times as many 65+ than under 65 year olds.
So if you're on the wrong side of 65 the flu is pretty dangerous (which is why doctors advise older people to get a flu shot, even if it only offers protection against the flu virus strains that were most prevalent the previous winter).
However, even if we assume for now that this new virus is no more contagious than a seasonal flu (which is something we don't really know yet), then it still seems smart to be careful for a while, because "if" you get infected with this N-Cov virus, then it is suddenly a lot more dangerous than having the flu. The death rate isn't really known yet, but it seems plausible it is at least 10 times the mortality of a seasonal flu (0.1%).
The reason I say the death rate is unknown is because while the numbers from Wuhan indicate a mortality rate of close to 4.5% sofar, that percentage will be heavily influenced by at least three factors:
1. hospitals being overwhelmed
2. shortage of medical supplies, including test sets, at least initially
3. the many people who have only mild symptons and possibly decide against going to the hospital to get tested.
This obviously speaks for a much lower overall mortality rate longer term, as also evidenced by the already much lower mortality outside Wuhan. On the other hand, the number of seriously ill patients is still in the thousands.
Experts seem to disagree about the possibility to contain this outbreak, some say it is too early to call, some claim the measures in China go a long way to keep the lid on further serious spread, some say it might be already too late for containment measures.
In short: we just don't know enough at this time.
NOT a panic article. Just common sense experts' analysis about two things that might happen if the new coronavirus isn’t contained, but become common like four other coronaviruses. Please do not comment without reading the entire article. It has now been 15 days since #1 arrived in Dumaguete. We should hear about PUI's shortly..
<<Stat (stylized STAT, sometimes also called Stat News) is an American health-oriented news website launched on November 4, 2015 by John W. Henry, the owner of The Boston Globe.>>
One takeaway for me was the detailed study of two other coronaviruses in the winters of 1999-2003 of 2800 people in Rochester NY, USA, which found that most of the illnesses lasted only about 10 days.
ALSO, FROM DEPARTMENT OF HEALTH 5 FEB PRESS RELEASE:
(They do NOT mention the "van driver" of the first two cases, Sedona, source ???)
Confirmed cases: 3
Update on PUIs: The DOH reported that as of 12NN today, there is a cumulative total of 133 PUIs for the 2019-nCoV Acute Respiratory Disease (ARD). Of the 133 PUIs, 115 are currently admitted and isolated, while 16 have been discharged under strict monitoring.
Among the PUIs 63 are Filipinos, 54 are Chinese, and 16 from other Nationalities. Thirty-two (32) of which were reported to have traveled to Wuhan, China.
So, really, they don't know what the eventual outcome will be - and why should they be able to when this is a new virus and they have had little chance to study it. So I am not sure giving odds at this point is very valid. I was very surprised to read "Dead people don’t transmit viruses" as that is untrue - they tend not to wander around infecting others (except in 'zombie' movies) but they can be a deadly source of infection from body fluids (Ebola being an example). Getting fluid from a dead person is a 'transmission'.
The big concern is the tendency of RNA viruses to mutate - perhaps the more types of coronaviruses circulating could mean an over-lap of immunity or it could mean a greater chance of some recombination within that group.
No one (without a single exception) really knows the extent of the current outbreak or the future of this viral disease - all we can do, and I am sure most people are fed up reading this, is to take it seriously and take precautions.
More information on those possibly exposed in Dumaguete and Dauin:
MetroPost 7 Feb:
"...Employees of the hotel in Dumaguete City and the beach resort in Dauin, Negros Oriental, who may have come in contact with the Chinese national confirmed to have contracted the novel coronavirus, have been placed on home arrest while a team from the Department of Health will evaluate their conditions. (See link above for the remainder of the article..)......."
Some good news for our area at last: out of the 23 quarantained persons in the Dumaguete area 20 have completed their 14 day quarantaine yesterday, all without showing illness. One more will complete their 14 days today and the last two on sunday.
Also keep in mind that there's still only 5 persons (if my information is correct) in hospital here, of which 4 already tested negative for the virus (still awaiting results of a second test). The fifth still waiting for results of the first test.
I mention the "still only 5" because it would seem unlikely that more patients would surface from contacts of the initial 2 chinese patients and these 5. With the incubation time of max 14 days we would have already seen more if there had been further spread.
Obviously this doesn't mean we can sound the "all clear" yet, but at least it seems likely at this time that the visit of the two chinese infected people didn't have disastrous consequences for our area.
For daily updates, recommend:
Contains links to "Daily Tracker"... This shows 14 admitted PUI's and 1 discharged, along with 1 confirmed, now discharged case.. Not sure if this contains "quarantined." Note that the Chinese tourist died in Manila, so not shown as C Visayas.... Apologize for inaccurate figures above. Duma is Central Visayas, not Western.
just one more cat out of the bag.. meeeeeeeeeeeoooooooooowwwww...
Virus is airborne now. So much for not wearing a mask.