Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by NowandThen, Jan 23, 2020.
So WHY did it get out of control? What lessons has it taught us about avoiding pandemics?
Be honest about the risks of exposure. For example, the Spanish flu spread rapidly in America from US soldiers going to and returning from Europe. In order to not frighten the enlistees, authorities claimed the the risk in Europe was focused in Spain, a neutral country where no fighting ensued. Thus the nomer “Spanish flu”. This was a lie of course. Returning soldiers from Germany and other countries were carriers of the flu. In those days they likely had little idea about what a flu pandemic was but most important was to win the war. Ultimately the “Spanish flu” claimed 3 times as many victims as WWI.
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And we have learned the major lesson of isolation - even, as now in China, whole cities - to break the cycle. It is almost impossible to isolate people as much during war time and it is very likely the war exacerbated the spread of the flu virus due to soldiers being weak from battle and probably with other health conditions, along with the general population being malnourished.
The extra information people are now being educated about, which I am sure never happened in the flu pandemic, is covering the mouth, nose and eyes (if possible), to wash hands and to avoid touching an uncovered face.
I am astonished at the complacency being shown on here about the risk of this infection. Its not just flu, its pneumonia with a vengence. It kills. It spreads very easily. And it is now spread world wide. Not many cases yet on a pandemic scale but if precations are not observed it can soon be of that proportion. Interesting to note that on a TV channel early this morning, the Philippines is still no shown on the world map. With the predominance of Chinese travel into this country one would have thought the numbers would reflect what is happening elsewhere in neighboring asian countries. Methinks the news is being supressed or they have no idea on a national scale. Wakr up people, this is a risk and by not taking notice and doing nothing to limit the spread you may just be included in the infected figures and lord help you if you are but you will only have yourself to blame for what you have caught and what you have spread to others.
Slight correction to my post above. The map as shown by the NY Times this morning shows one only reported in the Philippines. I findthat alrming with Australia for example with a much smaller population and on a per capita basis a much small Chinese travelling quantum, displaying a considerably larger infection rate.
You are correct - it is the difference between those who look at the current situation but prefer not to think ahead and those who know (for sure) that this IS a potential risk.
There is no reason not to read (credible) news, see how the virus is spreading, so how near it is to where you live, start taking simple precautions (mask, etc) WHEN it is merited and thinking ahead to self-isolation IF it becomes more than just a simple flu-scale outbreak.
'Survival of the fittest' does not only mean those physically fit but also those 'fit' enough to think about threats and reactions.
I am also very surprised at the low number of cases in a country frequented by Chinese people and so near to that country (although flights do make distance irrelevant) - is it poor detection, poor diagnosis, poor information or just good luck? I know that Australian border control is red-hot, so perhaps they are detecting more possible cases.
Philippines confirms one but we have close to 60 people that are under observation.
From various reports I have just read: The confirmed case is a Chinese national who flew into Cebu on Jan 21st, then flew on to Dumaguete, stayed overnight in an (unnamed) hotel, went to Dauin and stayed overnight in an (unnamed) resort.
The Chinese person is now in isolation in a Manila hospital and all staff of the Dumaguete and Dauin properties where she stayed are under 'house arrest' (i.e being isolated until time has passed to see if they are infected).
My view is that this shows how much we need to take this seriously, as an infected person may have been walking around parts of Cebu, Dumaguete and Dauin - but it is not worth panicking to the state of running around screaming 'panic, panic'. Anyone thinking they might be vulnerable - especially those with another existing serious illness - should now think about if they wish to wear a mask if going outside. But EVERYONE travelling around the areas this infected person has been in should try to avoid touching their face (and those of others!) and washing hands frequently. The real test is IF more cases appear locally.
Apparently from the local chiz-mis grapevine: - Manhattan Suites next to Robinsons Mall, has had all it's staff isolated/quarantined. The Sea Dreams Resort owner is now helping local DOH & government. Additionally, the woman is currently in an isolation ward in San Lazaro Hospital, Manila. Our beloved Governor, wants to withold this info, for fear of mass panic. Too late the hero I fear, as this & her travel itinary, has already been reported widely on the internet, national TV, local radio etc etc.
Because the virus has reached Dumaguete, I have done some more research and my findings are shown below:
One possible piece of goods news, not seen reported, is the actual % increase in new cases. The figures are reported (I have seen figures for 2 day periods) but not the % increase.
20th and 22nd +53%
22nd and 24th +94%
24th and 26th +133%
26th and 28th +125%
28th and 30th +70%
Although these figures show the cases and not the number of infected persons (as some will show no sign of disease or may fail to report it/seek help) it seems encouraging that there is a decline. We wait to see if this is maintained or it starts to rise again.
Below are reports I have read, with added comments from myself in :
SARS [another coronavirus] caused an outbreak of severe pneumonia in China in 2002/3 and spread to other countries. It infected more than 8,000 people and killed nearly 800 until it was controlled by some of the same public health measures being used in the current outbreak. It took nine months to infect less than 10,000 people. In contrast, the number of 2019-nCoV infections are close to 10,000 in just a month. [But it is known that faster spreading viruses tend to be less fatal].
The new virus is 75 percent to 80 percent identical to SARS. Its true mortality rate isn't known, because many infections may be going undetected in people who have mild or no symptoms.
Based on the first 425 cases analyzed, each infected person spread the virus to 2.2 others on average. That's a bit more than ordinary flu but far less than some other respiratory diseases such as whooping cough and tuberculosis. The rate for SARS was estimated to be 3.
Scientists have said the new virus seems similar genetically to some bat viruses, but it's not known if that is the source in nature or if another animal may be involved. [The danger here is that the virus infects other non-human animals and re-emerges as a more deadly disease].
Unlike SARS, the new virus looks like it doesn’t transmit through the air very easily and probably transmits through close contact. [Good news!].
And while it's too soon to be sure, the new virus appears most dangerous to older adults who have other health problems. [Unfortunate for that group but good news for the population at large].
The average incubation period — from infection until symptoms show up — is about five days. However, symptoms have turned up much later, supporting the wisdom of a two-week observation time.
All viruses are small enough [they can be seen only through an electron microscope and not using a normal light microscope] to get through a typical strap-on medical mask, but the germs don't generally spread through the air one at a time. Instead, viruses ride from person to person on droplets from a sneeze or cough. Those droplets land on hands and other surfaces, where they are touched by others, who then touch their own eyes, noses or mouths. Masks can block large droplets from a sneeze or cough. That means they have some value. Also, someone in a mask can't touch their own nose and mouth. That can prevent the wearer from picking up germs left on surfaces by someone who is sick. [In a serious high-risk situation, also wearing goggles would be advisable - or perhaps just large sunglasses].