Best Posts in Thread: Covid-19 Opinion

The corona virus crisis and all of the news surrounding it from all over the planet can be bewildering at times.
From cardboard coffins being used in Ecuador, to mass graves being dug in Iran and New York City, to praise being heaped on a few countries like Taiwan and Korea for seemingly "winning the war on covid-19", and scorn on many others for being in the "too little, too late" category, or even willfully misinforming the world (China, Iran).
Meanwhile the reported number of cases and dead keep going up, from a couple hundred in Wuhan just 3 months ago to 2.2 million cases today, with reported death rates wildly divergent across the planet, from 0.3% in Singapore to 18.5% in Lombardia (the worst hit region in Italy) and everything in between.
At the same time conspiracy theories, rumours, and outright lies are part of our daily news diet.
So how to make sense of it all?
Well, first of all it might be good to keep in mind that one day's "outrageous headline" (like with the satellite pictures of the mass graves in Iran, which were deemed to be proof that the situation in Iran was much worse than reported), can be another day's "nothing to see here" newsstory (when New york city had to start digging very similar mass graves on Hart Island).
Next aspect is the wild difference in death rates. I think there are reasons to believe that the true deathrate is pretty much a constant across different countries, of between 1 and 2% overall, depending on government policies regarding lockdowns/social distancing, demographics (countries with relatively old populations will suffer higher death rates), urbanisation level (in urban areas the spread will be faster) and hospital/intensive care beds/ventilator capacity. Basically, as long as medical capacity does not get overwhelmed, death rates should remain between 1 and 1.5%.

So why do we see reported death rates in most of Europe between 10 and 15%? The answer must be that because of testing constraints many many infections are simply missed.
I can offer some proof of that. The Netherlands reports around 30,000 cases and roughly 3,500 dead (11.4% mortality). However, sofar the country reports only deaths in hospitals, none outside, like in care homes. They are planning to change that but in the meantime we can use the deaths statistics from the national statistics office to estimate the difference. My rough conclusion is that the true number of deaths for the Netherlands amounts to about 5,500. That would take the mortality rate to 18.3% of the reported cases. Scary number right?
However, there is some good news, the dutch central blood bank has tested all 7,000 blood donors in the first week of April for antibodies for Covid-19 in their blood and found that 3% of them actually had those antibodies. This is an important number, because it is a very strong indication that the true number of infected people in the Netherlands in the middle of March was around 500,000. Now suddenly those 5,500 dead represent only a 1.1% deathrate, not that alarming high reported number.
Yes there are uncertainties (nobody under 18 and none over 70 among blooddonors, so not quite representative) but I believe it is still a strong indication for the true number of infected.
The reason I think it is important for other countries also is that there is not a single good reason to assume that the virus would behave differently on the other side of a border.
So, the true number of infected in almost all countries (everywhere where a high mortality rate is reported) will be much much higher than reported, and the number of people with minor or no symptons is very high (else hospitals in many countries would have been long overwhelmed).
Nevertheless this disease remains a lot more dangerous than the flu, with a death rate that is 10 to 15 times higher, with older people much more vulnerable than younger ones.
At some point I had hope that the climate might stop the virus in the tropics, but that seems to be idle hope now.
Hope that remains is for an existing medicin to be found effective (developing a new one takes just as long as a vaccine).
In the meantime, until a vaccine or medicin is widely available and priced friendly, the world had better be prepared for a quite different 1.5 meters "new normal" without tourism, with a damaged economy (I read quite a few "worse than the 1930's Big Depression" forecasts).
Governments will have to be very careful when lifting (part of) restrictions, because a "second wave" of infections can come quickly on the heels of the current one. Nobody wants that second wave to be a tsunami after all.

 

My biggest problem is the arbitrarily imposed elder age limit for going into the city and even the barangay. Each EO copies the other without much thought. Somebody came up with the idea that this was necessary for 65+ and everyone copied it. It continues into GCQ at the lower 60+ (getting closer to impacting you yet?) I know of no other countries that do this because I those countries elders gotta get food and go to the atm machines too. 60+ (revised LOWER age limit likely copied and recopied by typo) already KNOW they must take extra protection and only go out when absolutely necessary; they will if they want to live. The newer rules even ban people with risk factors from going out. Not sure how to enforce that since risk factors are not always visible, although obese people could be quickly identified and arrested for their own good I suppose lol. I suspect the elder ban may be based upon local Filipino culture where family and relatives are available and it can be practical for them. But no thought about the retired expats who didn’t marry a much younger bride or whose helpers went home for the duration in most cases. When PRA reopens, I plan to bring this up as I suspect that many future PRA retirees, concerned about this practice during the imminent future seasonal infection peaks, may choose places where they will not likely be locked down directly due to age; instead they may prefer places where expat elders can get medicine and money, following social distancing. In my case, “home” is what the wife and I are thinking. I am going to make a real big deal about this to PRA SRRV when they reopen; at least we have our SRRV deposits as some minimal leverage. I know, don’t let the swinging doors hit you on the way out lol. Also I hear what you say, Pat, about the success of ECQ, but I am not that sure if the ECQ had any significant effect one way or the other. Not many cases here but then again, there are many places where it is not so successful, ie in the NCR region (according to IATF) which has similar ECQ rules, so, does it really make that much of a difference? Any answer is just a guess. And what does the no-swimming, alcohol ban, wearing masks while driving, confiscating motor vehicles with no OR, charges when no DL really accomplish to reduce infections? Every provincial EO seems to copy the NCR EO boilerplate but this is not NCR. I suspect what had a major positive effect was travel ban between provinces, not these other rules. Just another opinion.




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No, this conspiracy theory is sometimes mentioned in the US news. Most people have heard these ravings just as they have heard about UFO’s and little green mensevretlymeeying with President Trump. American, European and other research organizations have funded studies in the Wuhan lab; it is common to pay for research and it is quite a prominent facility. There are laws about transporting bio materials and a few people were caught doing that but such material did not include bio weapons. They break the law to expedite their work. It is not common for foreign researchers to pay for bioweapons development or viruses that cause pandemics; they are usually trying to formulate new vaccines and the like for useful and peaceful purposes. A few nutbags buy into the conspiracy theories you are implying but not many, even the anti-Trump news media. The Chinese have also funded studies in the US and other locations sophisticated enough to have level 4 security bio-labs. Not many if those exist in the world. Most people do not believe that China or anybody else intentionally released a virus to take over the world, or reduce the population of a new world order lol. Such people need to be locked up with the people who have been accosted by aliens from Area 52 while sleeping. And Bill Gates is not trying to create demand for a vaccine so he can plant microchips into everyone. And that is not the mark of the beast. Lol.


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I am very pleased the attention and concerns the over-60 are getting about the risk we would face if we dare leave the house. Given this caring for us, I expect we will be the first to get tested and the first to receive the vaccine. I feel the love.

 

At the beginning of the outbreak, USA specialist Dr. Fauci, part of President Trump’s team, showed us two curves, one with a high peak where deaths rise quickly but the total time of the outbreak is shorter, and one with a flattened curve where the peak is lower but the total time of the outbreak is much longer. Fauci correctly assumed that in the case of the USA, considering such data as the population size and density of large cities like New York and the number of hospital beds and ventilators available, we really had no choice but to choose the flattened curve route that requires strict lockdowns. This was to prevent a total breakdown of the (rather poor) US health care system that has no Universal health coverage. He didn’t elaborate much on other characteristics of the flattened curve such as the fact that total deaths of the flattened curve (with lockdowns) are not guaranteed to be fewer than those from the fast peak (with no lockdowns). The key was the size of the peaks and whether the medical facilities in a country would become overwhelmed. Countries like Sweden with amazing health facilities and where everyone is insured and with enough facilities to cover a greater share if their population, had to evaluate their response based on their own population size and availability of medical facilities; one other factor that would need to be considered is that the fast peak, if a country could handle it (which the US definitely could not but maybe Sweden could), had the big advantage of creating herd immunity which the flattened curve response does not, with the people locked inside and not exposed to the virus. Total deaths must be considered the summation of those from the initial and future outbreaks and in that vein it is important to realize that herd immunity will prevent reoccurrences of new outbreaks while the flattened curve response does not. So, there are very powerful and science-based incentives for certain countries to choose the peaked curve if they so desire, given that total death numbers are similar either way (in theory). Every country’s’ situation is different and I cannot criticize any of them for their responses.


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some aspects of this "crisis" make me worry more than the virus itself, f.e.:
- there might be a step from voluntary vaccination to forced mass vaccination
- censorship is getting common. you have a different opinion, you are out. happens in europe if you don't follow the mainstream you might loose your job or you get hospitalised.
- tracking apps getting implemented. you have to give your private data to the government.
- we might get chips implemented - at least, while debating, we are getting used to that thought.
- protesting in public f.e. against government politics is not allowed anymore because group meetings on the streets are forbidden
- the military can get deployed now in such an exceptional situation, f.e. in germany.
- cash money can carry the virus, so get rid of it and change to electronic payment
this list is not complete and shall just give some hints that I see about changes happening in our civil formerly democratic societies - are we developing into a Brave new - / Big Brother world? it seems to me we are actually giving up a lot of civil rights that our great-grandfathers were fighting for and that were valid and essential for a century - just thinking...

 

These are some very good questions. My concern is that the elder ban is written so clearly in the EO’s and the various summaries so clearly. I suppose the elder ban would be likely enforced only at checkpoints if enforced at all. Personally I can wait until GCQ goes into effect on May 1 where conditions should be vastly improved, even though all indications point to this mindless requirement being retained; at least there should be fewer checkpoints. Living outside of dgte city limits complicates things because you need a pass to get inside the city during ECC but don’t know if remolo will continue it when GCQ becomes effective.

For the few in our situation who may be interested, at least the Philippine Inquirer provides the following (essentially useless) information in FAQ form where they and/or certain government officials think this was resolved. But this message apparently did not reach our Barangay captain or the person who answers questions by phone at the Valencia police stations . Regardless, on or after May 1 (when offices in dgte are open) we are going to go out in our car wearing masks to pay utilities and cable, go to atm, get prescription refills, Hypermart to get food and do whatever else must be done. Will update on what happens if anyone is interested.


Latest from inquirer.net;

Question from Email: I am an American citizen living in the Philippines with my Filipina wife. My SSS benefits are sent to BDO by direct deposit from New York. How can I withdraw it now for my basic necessities if I am not allowed to leave my home being a senior citizen? Authorizing someone to withdraw in BDO is not allowed by the bank. I am 67 and my wife is 50, who has the quarantine pass but can’t drive. Can I rent a car and then go to BDO and withdraw my money with my wife to assist me since it is hard for me to see due to my eye problem?

Answer: (April 28, 2020)

You may try to ask your local government or barangay to allow you to leave the house to go to the bank, citing your condition. [my comment: what a joke! Tried that. Doesn’t work.] Senior citizens may be allowed to leave their house if they have to buy their basic needs and no one else can do it but them. Interior Secretary Eduardo Año appealed to local government units on March 26 to give quarantine passes to senior citizens [my comment: apparently Ano’s appeal was ignored ir not heard in Valencia] who live alone. While you do not live alone, you may still try to appeal to your local government as you need to withdraw money to be able to buy your medicine and basic needs.
Source: https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/12486...lone-should-also-get-quarantine-pass-says-ano


Read more: https://www.inquirer.net/infodesk/ecq-laws-and-issuances#ixzz6KxJWKdjQ
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back to our virus: simple statistics show the spread of the coronavirus declines to almost zero after 70 days — no matter where it strikes, and no matter what measures governments impose to try to thwart it
https://www.timesofisrael.com/the-e...wth-the-decline-in-the-spread-of-coronavirus/