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Covid spread comparison

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Dutchie, Sep 22, 2020.

  1. Philpots

    Philpots DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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    This was emailed me today. it was missing the charts but although long it is well worth while taking the time to read it.
    Tuesday, September 22, 2020

    BY JEFFREY KLUGER Times Magazine

    An Unbearable Toll

    Body count has long been the yardstick by which we measure calamity. There were the 1,496 souls who perished as the Titanic sunk, the approximately 6 million Jews killed during the Holocaust, the 58,000 U.S. lives lost in the Vietnam war. In the hours after the September 11 attacks, when the death toll was not yet known, then-New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani famously said, “The number of casualties will be more than any of us can bear, ultimately.”

    We are, once again, trying to bear the unbearable, as the United States today surpassed 200,000 deaths caused by the still-rampaging COVID-19 pandemic. The U.S. remains, as it has long been, the world’s hardest-hit country, with just 4% of the global population but roughly 21% of both deaths and overall cases.

    It’s a dubious distinction that was fast in coming. It was not long ago, on Feb. 29, that the U.S.’s first virus death was recorded, in Washington state. By March 29, the death count had exceeded the 2,977 people who died in the 9/11 attacks. At that time, Dr. Anthony Fauci, director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, predicted that total deaths would fall somewhere between 100,000 and 200,000.

    The disease promptly set out to prove his prediction a tragic low-ball. On April 29, the Vietnam death toll was surpassed. On May 23, we reached 100,000 deaths. On July 29, it was 150,000. With the 200,000 threshold now crossed, the outlook for the rest of the year remains grim: The Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington School of Medicine now predicts a likely scenario of 410,000 deaths by year’s end.

    History will be the ultimate judge of what kind of job the Trump Administration and the nation as a whole have done in responding to the pandemic. But with a vaccine still months away and the coming winter forcing many people back indoors—and into close, infectious quarters—the 400,000-plus figure is almost certain to be reached before the end of the year, with numbers equally certain to keep climbing after that. The final number of lives lost will, once again, be more than any of us can bear.

    Read more here—and read TIME's Sept. 21 cover story examining how the U.S. reached this point.


    Britons could be forgiven for feeling a case of pandemic whiplash. Just weeks ago, Prime Minister Boris Johnson urged the country to go back to work, while promising that life could return to near normal by Christmas. Now, not so much. With the U.K. experiencing a doubling of infections every seven days, including 4,300 new cases on Monday—the highest daily total since May—Johnson has ordered a new round of restrictions, including requiring pubs and restaurants to close from 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. in order to minimize mingling. Johnson warned the new rules could remain in place for six months, and could be tightened further if necessary.

    Forget the cocktail parties, closed-door meetings and face-to-face schmoozing at this year’s United Nations General Assembly, which began today as an all-virtual gathering. First to address the assembly, by tradition, is Brazil—which volunteered for the lead-off spot at the first UNGA meeting in 1946 and, like New Hampshire in the U.S. primary campaign season, has retained the honor. Second up is the host country, which, as always, is the U.S. Both countries have been hit hard by the pandemic, and both of their presidents—Jair Bolsonaro and Donald Trump—have been criticized for downplaying the virus.

    India’s 5.5 million coronavirus cases place it second in the world in infection count, behind only the U.S. But the comparatively weak Indian economy cannot weather a shutdown as well as the American one can, and in a move that is part symbolism and part desperation, the Taj Mahal is reopening to tourists and other visitors, Al Jazeera reports. The UNESCO heritage site made 860 million rupees ($1.6 million) in the 2018-2019 season—not much, but every little bit helps right now. Train routes and domestic flights, as well as restaurants and markets, have also been allowed to reopen as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government tries to balance public health and public wealth—a tricky business with no certain outcome.


    Also, just a bit more

    It’s a good thing that children generally do not suffer from the coronavirus as severely as adults, because they’re likely to be the last group to have quick access to a vaccine if and when one becomes available. Trials so far have been conducted almost exclusively among adults, as The New York Times reports. That’s standard protocol, since children’s immune systems may be more unpredictably reactive to vaccines. Only if there are no serious side effects in adult subjects do researchers begin testing younger ones. The result: while adults may have access to a vaccine sometime in 2021, kids will have to wait longer for their turn.

    Pour $3 trillion into the economy and some of it is bound to go astray. As The Washington Post reports, that's exactly what happened when $1 billion intended to help replenish the country’s supply of personal protective equipment (PPE) was instead spent by the Pentagon on developing jet engine parts, dress uniforms and body armor. The funds were appropriated under the Defense Production Act, which compels defense contractors to manufacture products that meet a particular national need in a particular time of crisis. In this case, that particular need—increased PPE—was not met.

    Keeping a reliable count of new virus cases in K-12 schools would seem to be a top priority as officials determine whether it is safe for students to return to in-person learning. But as The New York Times reports, such tracking is alarmingly shoddy. Fifty different states and more than 13,000 different school districts mean all manner of different protocols, with some districts citing privacy issues that prevent publication of data and others simply not having the organizational wherewithal to do the counting in the first place. One independent group has counted 21,000 cases so far; whether that’s a reliable number is impossible to say.
     
  2. eskirvin

    eskirvin DI Forum Adept Blood Donor Veteran Navy

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    One life lost is an unbearable toll for their loved ones. My father died in 2007 due to lung cancer. It truly felt unbearable and going back to work had me feeling sick each day. The color slowly returned to my life, in small increments, mainly through the efforts of my remaining family and my coworkers. To this day I can't see a picture of him and think about how much better my life would be with him in it.

    From cancer.gov, "A total of 1,806,590 new cancer cases and 606,520 deaths are expected in the US in 2020, which is about 4,950 new cases and more than 1,600 deaths each day." If body count is indeed the measure, then by all means, let's bend our efforts to ending this calamity.
     
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  3. hiddenuser

    hiddenuser Guest Guest User

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    so, just asking. i thought the CDC admitted a couple of weeks ago that only 6 percent of "covid 19" deaths were due to covid only. the other 96 percent had 2.4 average co morbities. true or false as to what CDC said about this. anyone?
     
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  4. eskirvin

    eskirvin DI Forum Adept Blood Donor Veteran Navy

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    All of the numbers make me so curious, for just about any cause of death. If a person has drunk themselves into a stupor for 20 years of their life, and they develop cirrhosis, and are knocking on death's door as a result, but their heart stops as the last symptom leading to their death, is that counted as a heart attack death? How many different ways have people died and had COVID blamed because they were infected, worldwide?
     
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  5. djfinn6230

    djfinn6230 DI Senior Member

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    I read the article and I believe it was generally factual in terms of hard data presented. In terms of the commentary, I will note to non-US readers that America is actually a union of 50 sovereign states that choose to grant their federal government certain rights and responsibilities, for example, conducting foreign policy, to issue a national currency, military defense, a postal service, enforcement of certain federal laws, border controls and a few more misc items such as radio spectrum and setting up agencies like the FDA and CDC.

    Any right not specifically so-granted remains in the power of the States.

    The power to respond to weather catastrophes, civil disturbances and pandemics was never delegated to our federal government.

    Be that as it may, the federal government does have agencies in place to assist in these emergencies. In my opinion the US federal government did rise well to the occasion by encouraging the manufacturing of ventilators, so many that we export them to countries in EU and other places that need them. It has taken other steps to nationalize drug and PPE manufacturing to greatly lessen dependence on foreign counties to have these when we need them. It has even assisted in the construction of special hospital facilities in certain hard-hit states and even commission navy hospital ships to assist the governors who for reasons beyond my understanding did not use them. Much federal assistance was available and done but not all was accepted.

    But the operational and logistic responsibilities lies with the State governments alone.

    The rest of the world, not knowing this, will naturally, in the present time, place the “blame” on the federal government as the supreme decision making authority responsible for 200K deaths + from covid which in the case of the US includes deaths that may include co-morbidities as being simply “covid”. That is how we do it and a deep dive into that rabbit hole (the CDC 6% figure) will serve no one.

    What we have is 50 governors who each implemented their own plans, some doing a great job, others doing not so great. As the article states, history will be the judge and the further we go out in time, current political opinions begin to vanish and the facts (such as the one I just mentioned) come into light by more accurate historians. I am comfortable with that. Certain USA governors may not be.

    It is not (or certainly should not be) a political or partisan US issue. The author was correct in stating history will be the final judge but he may be surprised as to what the final judgement may be after he remembers from his civics class 101 how the US federal government is actually structured.


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  6. OP
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    Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    I say keep an eye on the deaths statistics for 2020 when they come out, and if the number of deaths from those "co-morbidities" turns out significantly lower than in previous years, then yes, to the extent that appears to be true, one might argue that some deaths would have occurred anyway if no covid-19 would have been around. However, in those same statistics, covid deaths themselves may well be categorized as "lower respiratory infections" (just like you can't find "flu" as a cause of death in those statistics).
     
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  7. danbandanna

    danbandanna DI Forum Patron Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Veteran Marines

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    You might consider how politically influenced they now are when reading anything that they print....
     
  8. djfinn6230

    djfinn6230 DI Senior Member

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    It is important to accurately separate the “principal morbidity” from the “co-morbidity” if that is even possible. It may not be possible; it is hard to have consistent data with thousands of different doctors signing death certificates and the potentially subjective nature in determining the cause; I have also heard “...died of complications from covid19”. That is a somewhat more accurate term than “co-morbidity”.

    Some governments may have political incentive to show low covid19 death rates while some hospitals in the US may have financial incentive to show high COVID19 rates. I think the US CDC is trying to clarify the US situation. If other countries reported it in that way, we might have a more accurate concept of COVID19 deaths and deaths related to it. Right now people are comparing other countries’ numbers to the (very high) US numbers but it doesn’t mean much to me until we know that all death rate reportings are consistent, country to country.


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  9. Always a Poppy

    Always a Poppy DI Senior Member Restricted Account

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    England almost reached 7,000 new cases on Friday and the rest of UK to add to that. The 'R' rate is estimated at between 1.3 and 1.5, meaning every 1,000 with the virus are infecting a further 1,300 - 1,500. Likely UK is heading for full lockdown soon, with huge slices of humble pie being eaten.

    The latest excuse issued by the UK Govt is that UK citizens do not like giving up their freedoms, leading to more social interaction etc. Could be something in that with the US too, certainly when measured against China. Although there are countries with similar constitutional freedoms as the US and UK that are faring much better, these are likely societies with better developed sense of social responsibility (said as the opinion of a Brit).
     
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  10. hiddenuser

    hiddenuser Guest Guest User

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    per an announcement just made, covid patients who are asymtompatic or mildly symptomatic will no long be allowed to home quarentine, they must quarentine in government facilities. anyone have more on this?
     
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