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Delta variant in the Philippines

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Notmyrealname, Jul 17, 2021.

  1. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1460653/ph-logs-first-local-delta-cases-1-dies-10-recover

    I read few days ago that all Delta variant cases had been stopped at the airports - but this has now changed.

    Now it is (inevitably) here it is going to be very difficult to control. I don't say this to worry people even more but to ensure people think more about personal protection - there is tremendous fatigue after 17 months but this could be the wave that becomes extremely serious.

    Of the 16 additional cases detected (giving a new total of 35 cases) 11 have no history of foreign travel. They are not declaring 'local transmission' and use an interesting definition of that, but if you haven't been abroad then IMO you caught it locally (it could be within family groups but we all know how that transmits outwards and onwards).

    Three areas (Iloilo, Cdo, Gingoog (near CdO)) have been put into ECQ - so far.
     
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  2. Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Forum Adept Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    Sadly the most likely scenario for the Philippines seems to be what's happening in Indonesia.
    What I mean with that is a serious wave of new cases against a backdrop of inadequate medical infrastructure and a low vaccination rate, while most vaccinations are with vaccine that has a rather low efficacy.
    To be honest, if you look at what that Delta variant is capable of even in countries with a much higher vaccination rate like the UK and the Netherlands, then the situation looks to be rather bleak.
    One of the few positives I see for the Philippines is that other than in Europe, mass tourism is still on hold here for now. I very much doubt though that that will be enough to stop the spread, but hopefully it will be much slower here.
     
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  3. Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Forum Adept Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    I think there is a dangerous development going in our region (Central Visayas), especially in Cebu and Bohol provinces.
    When looking at newly reported cases and hospital admissions for those areas I'm getting serious concerns about testing. Cebu province (that does not include the three largest cities Cebu, Mandaue and LapuLapu) reports 363 new cases as per August 11, of which 181 admitted (to hospital) and 182 in isolation. Bohol reports 30 new cases of which 18 hospitalized and 12 in isolation.
    These numbers are a big red flag to me, especially since they're not a one off incident.

    What I mean is HALF of all new cases are hospitalized? That is totally crazy.
    To me that signals one of two things:
    a. woefully inadequate testing capacity, or
    b. dramatic unwillingness of people to get tested unless they have no choice anymore.

    I am willing to bet it is the latter that is the main factor at work here; many will be scared to be told to "isolate" in an LGU facility if tested positive, so they don't get tested at all unless they are very sick already.
    Of course the main consequence of this must be that many many cases go undetected. Nothing new in itself but it is apparently much worse than I suspected.
    This also puts this report in perspective, where it says: "The infection-detection rate in Philippines was close to 9% on August 2 (Figure 8)." Previously I didn't take the model very seriously with regard to their estimate of undetected cases, but I'm having second thoughts now.

    upload_2021-8-12_11-19-13.png
     
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    Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    How is 'a' related? Do you mean they are not doing enough testing to detect overall infected persons early in the infection? But your figures are for the high percentage of hospitalisation necessary and this could point to 'b' OR perhaps these areas are suffering a variant (maybe a new one) which is causing a more severe illness.

    My outlook has changed with my new risk assessment - I am now willing to be vaccinated and take the risk of any long-term problems. Delta or other new variants are eventually going to infect us all (vaccinated or not) but vaccination should reduce serious effects in the short to medium term (the long-term is yet unknown). I am just looking for an acceptable vaccine (Janssen being my main choice).
     
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  5. Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Forum Adept Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    One would expect a large multiple of "mild" and "asymptomatic" cases, not needing hospitalisation compared to those being admitted to hospitals. That that is not the case points to an inadequate testing volume (mostly at the emergency entrance of the hospital only?!!). The explanation for such a situation must be either a. or b. I think it is b.
    Yes theoretically it could be a new variant, but a variant that gets half the infected sick enough to need a hospital bed seems unlikely .
     
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  6. Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Forum Adept Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    Congratulations on your informed choice to get vaccinated.
     
  7. EnsureAllure

    EnsureAllure DI Junior Member

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    IMO, I think the agenda has been laid out perfectly with their timing of events until the people have no other choice but to accept the New World Order.
     
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  8. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    This is not that type of forum. Take this type of conspiracy theory elsewhere or I'll have to call the Illuminati and report you.
     
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  9. Obliged Friend

    Obliged Friend DI Forum Adept Veteran Army

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  10. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    Studies also show that the load tapers off quicker for vaxxed, but the first 6 days are almost the same. Fortunately, you're less likely to get infected still if vaxxed, and less likely by more to be hospitalized or in the ICU. So we still mask up, etc. PITA.
     
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