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Fall in populations

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Forum' started by Notmyrealname, Jul 15, 2020.

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  1. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    For those interested in reading something a bit different, even though this Forum is dedicated to Dumaguete and locality, I read a very interesting article today on BBC News, summarised from a research piece in The Lancet (rather heavy going that one!).

    The BBC News article in titled "Fertility rate: 'Jaw-dropping' global crash in children being born" By James Gallagher, Health and science correspondent. It can be found at https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53409521

    A few points I found especially interesting were:

    * 23 nations - including Spain, Japan (Japan's population is projected to fall from a peak of 128 million in 2017 to less than 53 million by the end of the century) and Italy (Italy is expected to see a dramatic population crash from 61 million to 28 million over the same timeframe), Thailand, South Korea and Portugal - are expected to see their populations halve by 2100.
    * Researchers expect the number of people on the planet to peak at 9.7 billion around 2064, before falling down to 8.8 billion by the end of the century.
    * China, currently the most populous nation in the world, is expected to peak at 1.4 billion in four years time before nearly halving to 732 million by 2100. India will take its place (with about 1.2 billion)
    * This will be a truly global issue, with 183 out of 195 countries having a fertility rate below the replacement level
    * We will go from the period where it's a choice to open borders, or not, to competition for migrants, as there won't be enough.
    * In the opposite direction, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to treble in size to more than three billion people by 2100. The study says Nigeria will become the world's second biggest country, with a population of 791 million.
    * Countries will also age dramatically, with as many people turning 80 as there are being born.

    I know that such figures are speculative and may well be altered by World events but nevertheless I find it interesting to see how populations might be changing over a relatively short period of 80 years (some of your children's/grandchildren's lifetimes).

    The major factor of who earns the money to cope with the huge numbers of elderly surely will be solved by robotics of one form or another.




     
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    Last edited: Jul 15, 2020
  2. Happy Camper

    Happy Camper DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer

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    With all of the lockdowns I am wondering if they are considering the new wave of what I will refer to as the Covinials, those born really late this year or in the early months of 2021.
     
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  3. shabbynomad70

    shabbynomad70 DI Member

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    one of the side effects of this, for example in europe, is that the recent influx of muslim migrants means that muslims who have a much higher birthrate will become the voting majority in european nations. they are already very influential in places like london. there is a lot of speculation about wether a younger muslim working population will want to support the social commitments now in place for a largely christian older population
     
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  4. jimeve

    jimeve DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer Blood Donor Veteran Army

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    Londonstan!
     
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  5. Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    Err, no. In order to become a voting majority the majority of adults would need to be Muslim.
    In 2016, Europe had 4.9% muslims. Projections suggest that by 2050 that percentage might grow to between 7.4 and 14%, depending on migration flows.
    Nowhere near a majority.
    Source: https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/11/29/5-facts-about-the-muslim-population-in-europe/
     
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  6. shabbynomad70

    shabbynomad70 DI Member

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    well i eagerly went back to the net to find information to support my case and did not find it! you are correct and i am incorrect. the web site for the Pew Research Center had a very good and detailed projection by country of muslim population growth in europe under three senarios of no more immigration of muslims, medium levels of immigration and high levels. i recently read the book, "eurabia" which paints a much more grim picture and my belief probably stemmed from that. act in haste, repent at leisure. thanks for the correction!
     
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  7. Happy Camper

    Happy Camper DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer

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    Just a question. You are talking about migrants and immigrants from what I gather. Not being from that part of the World, do those countries allow immigrants or migrants to vote in elections without attaining citizenship first?
     
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  8. john boy

    john boy DI Forum Patron

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    I would imagine that citizenship is required first, before being allowed to vote.
    But to state the obvious if the majority choose to obstain to vote, the minority can take office / control.
     
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  9. Mark K

    Mark K DI Member

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    I'm not surprised at these statistics at all. About half of my friends (around 40 years of age) don't have children, and don't plan to.

    I read recently that the average cost of a raising a child (up to age 17/18) in Western countries is between $200,000 to $250,000 (depending on the country/ study). This doesn't even take into account college/ university costs.

    I'm sure I could do better things with half a million dollars than raise two urchins :smile:

    It's quite worrying that the countries with the lowest fertility rates are generally those with the most intelligent/ educated population. Precisely the kind of people who are likely to raise future scientists/ politicians/ educators/ inventors etc, not to mention also the greatest future taxpayers.

    It makes one fear for the future generations somewhat........
     
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  10. OP
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    Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    For me VERY personally, and I am not reflecting here on the choices made by others, as a newly married person I looked at the sh*t World, which has got even worse, and wondered why I would want to bring a new life into it.

    I support those who made the choice to have children, who love them, to whom they bring purpose and a quality within their lives - I am not ranting at you. I am pleased for you for what you have and recognise I missed some good times.
     
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