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Best Posts in Thread: Lambda Variant

  1. Mike_Haddon

    Mike_Haddon DI Member

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    Correct and I read something today (cannot recall where) about the future risks to young children who will not have built up immunity to various diseases because of staying in a relatively sterile environment in the home and not mixing with other children for such a long time. Time will tell.
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  2. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    I read earlier today that current vaccines are working against the Lambda variant (which arose in Peru) but I don't know the efficacy.

    A few points from an interesting article (reliable source https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57678942) on how one country (England) is now changing its way of dealing with Covid:

    • The rollout of the vaccination programme has altered everything, reducing both the individual risk and the wider one to the health system. Back in January, about one in 10 infections could be expected to translate into a hospital admission 10 days later. Now that figure appears to be somewhere between one in 40 and one in 50.
    • What is more, those ending up in hospital seem to be less sick, and need less intensive treatment. The risk of death, as a result, has reduced even further. In January about one in 60 cases resulted in someone dying. Today it's fewer than one in 1,000.But this does not mean England is not heading for a significant third wave - infection rates are rising. If they rise enough, that has the potential to cause a significant number of hospitalisations, possibly 1,000 a day before summer is out. Many may wonder how this can happen given how effective the vaccines are. Individually, those who have had two doses are at a very tiny risk of getting seriously ill, but with infection rates high it means many people are taking that tiny risk at the same time. Add to that those who are unvaccinated or for whom the vaccines do not work as well and you can get a lot of admissions to hospital.
    • But serious illness happens all the time. In the depths of winter there can be 1,000 admissions a day for respiratory infections. Flu alone killed more than 20,000 people in England in the winter of 2017-18. There was no talk of the need to introduce restrictions or curtail freedoms then. "That is the context we need to start seeing Covid in," says Prof Robert Dingwall, a sociologist at Nottingham Trent University.
    • There was always going to be an "exit wave" once restrictions were lifted. And government scientists are hopeful the wall of immunity built up by natural infection and the vaccine rollout so far will soon kick in and flatten the wave. The fact remains interventions are not harm-free, so in the end it comes down to difficult judgements about trade-offs. As the virus presents less of a risk, that in turn shifts the balance on what can be considered proportionate.
    • Now that all over-50s have had the chance of a second jab - these are the age groups where 99% of Covid deaths have occurred - the benefits of quarantining children is hugely reduced, while the costs in terms of disruption to education are clear to see.
    • "Covid will never go away," says Prof Paul Hunter, from the University of East Anglia. "It's inevitable that we're going to catch it repeatedly for the rest of our lives, whether we have had the vaccine or not.
    • But the idea of letting a virus spread when we have spent so long trying to do the opposite requires a psychological shift. Dr Muge Cevik, an infectious disease expert at University of St Andrews, says this will take time. "We need to accept Covid is here. We won't be able to completely stop the spread. We are now at the stage of managing the virus."
    • But none of this is without risks. What if infection rates keep rising and that wall of immunity is slow to kick in? Understandable concerns have also been raised about those who are at risk because they have conditions such as blood cancer which mean the vaccines do not work as well or who have a higher chance of exposure because of their jobs, such as shop or factory workers.

    I would add that the Philippines is nowhere near the same vaccination coverage or other advantages England has and so this type of thinking may not apply here for quite some time. Well, the thinking can apply - but the outcome will not be the same.
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  3. mntnwolf

    mntnwolf DI Member

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    "the benefits of quarantining children is hugely reduced, while the costs in terms of disruption to education are clear to see." -- This concerns me most by now; not only crippled education but being forbidden to play outdoors with friends. The effects on my 10-yr son, previously very active & social, have been devastating. I want this policy reversed NOW.
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  4. eskirvin

    eskirvin DI Forum Adept Blood Donor Veteran Navy

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    It's very obvious some countries' shell economies aren't going to be able to keep up with this new cycle. The Philippines is holding on by a thread as the people of the Philippines have been fleeced too strongly for too long. I wonder if China knew this would accelerate the demise of unstable economies and bring them to the very top in short order.
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