Although we're currently getting some decent rain after several months of drought in our province, and just after Pagasa yesterday announced the end of the Habagat monsoon season (not complaining, it's been way too dry for way too long in Negros Oriental), there are some long term weather projections that spell potential disaster. One of those is also from Pagasa, predicting severe drought and water supply stress into the first half of 2027 because of the expected strengthening of El Niño into a "never seen before" super category, which will cause hardship especially for farmers, but may also cause food prices to increase significantly because of poor harvests, and a slump in available hydro power in Mindanao. Looking for some further information I came across an analysis for the current El Niño, that also mentioned the Indian Ocean Dipole expected reversal from the previous negative state -which caused much of the recent flooding in parts of the country- to positive, which will exacerbate the expected drought. Takeaway: 1. serious drought expected all over the Philippines, also in Negros Oriental, with consequences for food prices; 2. excessive heat expected that may lead to up to 6,500 additional deaths in the country, even if the projected heat index levels above 50 degrees Celsius seem alarmist; 3. the expected slump in available hydro power will cause brownouts, possibly not only in Mindanao but also in the Visayas;
