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New Omicron variant from southern Africa

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by Dutchie, Nov 27, 2021.

  1. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    ...and alcohol.
     
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  2. OP
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    Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    The positivity rate of PCR tests performed in our province has increased sharply over the past few weeks to almost 50%.
    Not a good sign. Reported case numbers are up but still pretty low, compared to other places (in Cebu City, Lapu Lapu and Mandaue it is much worse already).
    Hospital occupancy rates are going up also, although they are not yet dangerously high.
    I would hazard a guess that in reality Omicron is already spreading fast in our province right now.

    Some information seems a bit hard to believe though. For example, the (reputed) IHME institute of Washington State University wrote on Jan 14 that "We estimate that 79% of people in the Philippines have been infected at least once as of January 10". I mean: 4 in 5 have been infected at least once since the start of the pandemic? That can't be true in my perception, unless countless people, family, friends and acquaintances included, have been quiet about being sick, or alternatively, the previous variants were just as contagious as omicron is, but caused totally asymptomatic cases for a large majority of the infected. It seems far fetched though.
    Basically IHME is saying that testing in the Philippines catches a much smaller portion of all infections than I thought, while I thought my view was already rather pessimistic thinking they were catching like 20% of all infections with tests; IHME says it's more like they catch 3%.
    Obviously, if IHME is correct, that would mean all of the local case statistics are utterly useless. It would also mean though that the case mortality rate in the Philippines is one of the lowest on the planet rather than being rather high compared to Western Europe.
    For the moment though, I still think IHME must be wrong about this.
     
  3. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    I don't think 4 out of 5 people have been infected...but this new variant is likely going to make that a reality very soon.
     
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  4. SkipJack

    SkipJack DI Senior Member

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    I don't know.
    Because of the very young average age of the population, we would expect the case mortality rate in the Philippines to be much lower than Western Europe.

    The average age in the Netherlands is 43 years whereas the average age in the Philippines is only 26 years old. COVID has a greater impact on older people.

    The only statistic that matters is the hospital utilization. COVID is here for the long run and vaccines are available for those who will take them. The only issue now is getting the effects of covid down to what the health care system can manage.
     
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    Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    True, but only if you assume everything else being equal, which it is not.
    The access to medical care in the Philippines is much worse (no decent insurance coverage and a much higher poverty rate). Which means that in the Philippines a much larger share of those who should be hospitalized doesn't get there at all.

    That is like saying it is fine if the poor just die (because vaccine efficacy is proving to be rather short-lived and much less effective against newer variants).
    So I would say what we need, beside policies aimed at keeping hospitalization rates manageable, is a better vaccine, that works long term and against any variants, preferably one that the vaccine hesitant can have trust in, plus an unprecedented effort from all governments to get the entire planet vaccinated. A cheap and effective medicine would obviously help also.

    Sadly none of that seems likely any time soon.
     
  6. NowandThen

    NowandThen DI Forum Adept Restricted Account

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    Hopefully once the pandemic becomes epidemic there will be no need for new vaccinations. In Europe more and more people are immunized and when the Omicron variant flattens out the restrictions can be lifted. Like in England for example. The virus will probably never go away. But further vaccinations will only be needed for people with a health risk. The others only get flu-like symptoms if they are infected. And I'm confident by then there will be many medications to fight such smyptoms.


    Gesendet von meinem M2101K6G mit Tapatalk
     
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    Last edited: Jan 23, 2022
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    Dutchie

    Dutchie DI Senior Member Showcase Reviewer Veteran Army

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    An interesting graph in my view is the following.
    upload_2022-2-4_9-58-20.png
    Interesting because there is no way this would not be accurate. Whether people are tested or not, asymptomatic or not, if infected they'll shed virus particles that end up in the wastewater treatment plants (very few if any septic tanks in the Netherlands).
    So in my view this is a pretty good proxy for the actual spread of the different variants so far.
    The explosive increase in the last 15 days or so shows how Omicron is indeed much "better" at infecting people.
     
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