⌛ Peso continues to fall

Don't be too sure. There is oil out there to meet the demand however, it is difficult to reach. Therefore, if the price is not high enough it's unlikely to be recovered which will result in low supply levels. Outside of typical up and down fluctuations oil will continue to rise in the long term unless alternatives are found and used. Ah! There it is again, just like drilling for hard to reach oil; there's no incentive for using alternatives if the price is too low.

 

You may have a point there. However, at price of $100 a barrel, even at half that I would hardly consider it cheap. With recent trend in energy conservation due to high cost and general awareness for the environment, investments & use of alternative/sustainable energy is at an all time high....I speculate such trend will continue. Though the ease of demand will likely be offset by consumption in developing countries in the short term, they'll eventually follow the trend of their western counterpart in use of alternative energy. On top of that, US will begin allowing exploration/drilling of oil on a very large scale which will further impact the oil market negatively. Yes overtime oil prices will rise but it'll likely be a reflection of inflation & not market demand,

 

atlargex, you've said exactly what I would say. The only thing I would add
is that China is driving the bus now. For every barrel the US saves, China
sucks up. Answers to yesterdays problems just don't apply anymore due to
the globalization of the world. Back to the Peso, I think It'll hold 45 thru Xmas. Not great but much better than last year.

 

There are "forces at play", which I certainly do not understand, and I am not sure anyone else does. The Australian dollar was at 97 cents US, about 2 months ago, it went down, the steepest and sharpest fall in its history to 78 cents US (approx.), now its creeping back up to 84 cents.

Oil had its sharpest one day rise of 25 dollars a barrel a few days ago. All of this "I think" is not market forces but probably hedge funds manipulation. Anyway, the sentiment for the US dollar is gone, whatever happens with the proposed 700 billion bailout. Incidently where does all THAT money come from ?

If nothing else gived me something to think about.

cheers, Dave Finlay

 

Forecast is TAX rise's in the UK and USA. Higher interest rates, thus
making Dollar stronger. abide time, may be next spring dollar will be strong again.

Jim.

 

I'm going on the assumption that the ship of fools in D.C. will go ahead with a gigantic bail-out for the mess they helped create on Wall Street. In the short term this will result in a rebound for the financial sector and buoy the dollar for a while longer. The resulting 11 TRILLION DOLLAR national debt will have a huge impact over time. In my mind, a good example of what the US will look like (economically) in the future is France.

 

Just in relation to percieved global environment conciousness, I just lived for 5 years in Chengdu a city with a population of 10,000,000 in the south west of China. Every day 1,000 new cars hit the road. Over time thats a lot of cars (and traffic congestion) and oil consumption. Add in Beijing, Shanghai, Tianjin, Wuhan, the list goes on. I think BJ had about 1,500 new cars everyday, that figure might have slowed a bit because of the Olympics. And lets not forget India. If they started drilling off the US coast it would be 20 years before the oil hit the market. There has not been a new oil refinery built in the US for about 30 years, and the ones they have are operating at capacity.

How much is one billion ? is that a million million or a thousand million. What ever, it rolls of the toungue easily. Also, how much is a trillion ? million billion, billion billion ???

At the time of writing (Fri morning) the details of the bailout are still being worked out, which I am inclined to think, will end up in such a comprimise it will not help anyone in the long term.

cheers, Dave Finlay.

 

I think the bailout will work. It has already worked to some degree. The gov kept AIG from failing.

The gov might also make a boatload of money from the "bailout." Warren Buffet agreed with the bailout and followed by putting his money where his mouth is to the tune of 5 billion. He knows there is a boatload of money to be made on the huge sale and he didn't want to let the gov have all the fun.

The dollar will certainly be weaker in the short term but perhaps stronger in the long term. The U.S. is in the news right now, but not the only country with huge problems ongoing or looming. Also, the fact that all 5 of the big investment banks are gone could make the economy more stable. Wall Street is no longer the Wall Street we know, and that could be good.

 

interesting

Sept. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies fell, led by the Philippine peso, on concern investors will shun the region's assets as negotiations on a proposal to inject $700 billion into U.S. financial markets stalled.

All 10 of the most-traded Asian currencies declined after U.S. lawmakers splintered over a proposed rescue plan to alleviate the credit squeeze

 

Most of that debt is re-sellable at market rates; remember only small % was bad debt. It's the bad portion of the $7b that's the real issue.

Both Sweden and Japan have had similar problems in the past. Sweden handled it well, kept their system solvent and made sure taxpayers had a stake in the profit when the banks went private again.

Retirements, nest eggs, etc., are all bound up in the market. Meanwhile the rest of the world will be worse off than the U.S. if this thing goes to hell.

It's been rejected today but I think it was a lot of political posturing that will be resolved later this week.

The only thing worse than the bail out deal is no deal whatsoever.