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Philippines Covid Map

Discussion in 'COVID-19' started by AndyG, Mar 19, 2020.

  1. OP
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    AndyG

    AndyG DI Member Admin ★ Forum Moderator ★ ★ Global Mod ★ Showcase Reviewer Blood Donor

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    Chances of getting sick with symptoms is incredibly small - too small for most people to comprehend a 0.002182% chance of dying (btw that's for an 80+ year old in the US with 3 pre-existing conditions).

    To put it into perspective though (based on current statistics): If everyone in the entire world got Covid19 about 4.7% would have critical symptoms. For all of those sick if they don't have a pre-existing condition there's a 99% chance of survival.

    It's important to note that if everyone got covid19 there would not be ventilators for 99% of the critically ill so I imagine 4.7% of the world would die from it, that's what people are trying to avoid.

    Here's some more basic stats.
    There's about a 1 in 918 people in the US with Covid19.
    One of the population for every in 19,534 of the population have critical symptoms - see below for age grouping.
    Of those with critical symptoms and no pre-existing conditions, 99% will recover.

    Chances of dying in the US (current rates)
    Ages:
    10-19: 1 in 9,767,248 of the population.
    20-29: 1 in 9,767,248
    30-39: 1 in 4,883,624
    40-49: 1 in 3,255,749
    50-59: 1 in 1,502,654
    60-69: 1 in 542,625
    70-79: 1 in 244,181
    80+: 1 in 131,990 of the population.

    99% of those who die will have a pre-existing condition.
     
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  2. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    And a good chunk more from all the other disease and injuries that couldn't be treated due to the hospitals being overran with COVID-19 patients.
     
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    AndyG

    AndyG DI Member Admin ★ Forum Moderator ★ ★ Global Mod ★ Showcase Reviewer Blood Donor

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    Very good point!
     
  4. Notmyrealname

    Notmyrealname DI Forum Luminary Highly Rated Poster Showcase Reviewer

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    Then give him a 'Genius' - they're free! :smile:
     
  5. Edward K

    Edward K DI Senior Member Veteran Navy

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    Andy, INHO, statistics in this current pandemic are worthless at this point. No-one anywhere has a real clue as to the number of sick, as my guess is that there are thousands or more, mainly in poor or rural areas, who are sick. The only ones we've seen so far are the ones who show up in hospitals. Mortality rates are thus based on incomplete figures. Number of deaths can be counted, but then again, some areas and countries are skewing the numbers with other causes..

    I think the only things we know is it spreads rapidly; can be caught easily from airborne droplets (brief) and contaminated surfaces (24 hrs+); some people, generally with "underlying causes" and "age" can get more sick than others, although death among the young is spiraling; and people can pass it along without showing symptoms. The only way to slow it is to wear masks and massively reduce movement outdoors. The faster an area shuts down, the quicker the virus will go away. If you are incredibly lucky, after 14 days people who caught it before will be identified as sick, and other people who don't show symptoms aren't going to catch it, but that's a pretty tight ideal, Luzon already declared yesterday that didn't work.

    We'll just have to see who's left after the dust settles, then we'll have some idea of illness and mortality rates. I really think that among people of all ages for whom the illness becomes critical with high difficulty of breathing, you will find some scary rates, could be 10% or higher, but that's a guess.
     
  6. Rye83

    Rye83 with pastrami Admin Secured Account Highly Rated Poster SC Connoisseur Veteran Army

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    Source please?
    I think the rates are going to be much lower since those that show no to mild symptoms aren't going to be tested. This is a disease deadly to old men and those with weakened immune systems.

    The numbers (from what I have seen: source in the OP along with pretty much everything else that has been put out there) just don't suggest this is something healthy individuals under 50 need to worry about. Younger people still need to take precautions to avoid spreading the disease to elderly loved ones and to avoid placing a burden on our healthcare system (which is what would end up hurting younger people) but it really isn't something to worry about when it comes to our own personal wellbeing.
     
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    AndyG

    AndyG DI Member Admin ★ Forum Moderator ★ ★ Global Mod ★ Showcase Reviewer Blood Donor

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    Just in case this virus doesn't slow down, here's a map of the infection rate as a percentage of population:

    https://cvpct.info/


    I just combined population data with active case data but I might add more to it at a later date.
     
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    Last edited: Apr 12, 2020
  8. OP
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    AndyG

    AndyG DI Member Admin ★ Forum Moderator ★ ★ Global Mod ★ Showcase Reviewer Blood Donor

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  9. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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    Looking at infection as a percentage of population has little value at this point, wait till it's over. Until then the IFR is probably the best, CFR is no real indication. Here's where the map moved to. As you can see Bacolod is dealing with a breakout and IloIlo and Talisay are having flare ups.
    https://endcov.ph/map/
     
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  10. Toto

    Toto DI Senior Member

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