Best Posts in Thread: Philippines energy national emergency

It seems to me that because of the sailing time involved with getting oil from the Gulf states that even if the agreement would mean that those 19 ships can indeed pass through the strait of Hormuz, then the full 2.4m barrels capacity would only be enough for about 13 days (just to provide oil to the one refinery). And since the average sailing time to and from the gulf is about double those 13 days (return trip) this capacity isn't even enough to provide our one refinery with oil, so yeah gumtree and no paddle indeed.
Moreover, since the production capacity in the gulf has been substantially harmed, the competition for what remains will be fierce.

 

There are currently 19 tankers operating internationally under the Philippine flag with a total GRT of 324,534 tonnes (equivalent to approximately 2.4 million barrels of crude). The problem is refining. Petron have the only operating refinery in the Philippines with a capacity of 180,000 bpd but the Philippines consumes around 480,000 bpd. So even if all the tankers were allowed through (and I couldn't find any currently in the Persian Gulf) "we" don't have the capacity to process it for consumption. In the words of the great Filipino philosopher Confusion - "we're trooly up a gum tree without a paddle"

 

Just some thoughts on what might happen.

Most of you will be aware of the announcement of the national energy emergency that was recently declared by the President of the Philippines.

My take on the possible results of the current oil crisis in terms of effects for the Philippines:
1. There will not just be (very) high prices for diesel, gasoline/petrol, cooking gas, kerosine, but indeed physical shortages. I reckon the absolute priority for the government through the entire crisis will be to keep the economy running as much as possible. That logically translates in priority for transport of goods (diesel for trucks and ferries), public transport (diesel for buses, gasoline for trikes/taxis) and absolutely no priority for fuel for everybody else.
Moreover, there's only one operational refinery in the Philippines, owned by Petron, and the capacity of that refinery is 180,000 bpd. The crude oil for that refinery still needs to be imported. Also, the capacity is not nearly enough for the demand in the country, so that still leaves a lot of diesel/gasoline to be imported.

2. This country is rather lucky in that it still produces a lot of its electricity in coal fired power plants (coal is still cheap) and with renewables but that still leaves around 30% of power generation depending on oil and gas. Bekijk bijlage upload_2026-4-2_19-22-23.png
Because quick adjustments in the way electricity gets produced are not possible, I think that scheduled rolling blackouts starting at the latest in May/June are almost a certainty at this point. It seems likely to me that these blackouts will be planned in weekends as much as possible, but that may not be enough.

Almost all oil imports are from countries in the Persian Gulf

Bekijk bijlage upload_2026-4-2_19-29-59.png

The LPG use would be partly for electricity generation but I assume mostly for cooking gas.
Bekijk bijlage upload_2026-4-2_19-36-20.png

Imports of refined oil products come mostly from 4 countries, China, South Korea, Singapore and Malaysia (see in the table below). Obviously, since none of these countries are substantial oil producers, they need to import the oil that they use to produce gasoline and diesel in their refineries.
China has already instituted a ban on oil product exports, the other 3 will likely follow. That means in all likelihood that the Philippines will have to (but will struggle) to find other suppliers.

Bekijk bijlage upload_2026-4-2_19-48-34.png
The entire report from which I took these illustrations is here.

Other than the direct results from the current crisis there will obviously be a rather devastating effect on general inflation over time.

Edit: Just read that there is supposedly an agreement reached today between the Philippines and Iran about the safe passage of Philippine flagged vessels through the strait of Hormuz.
I am doubtful that will have much immediate impact though.
As long as there's ongoing attacks on and by Iran insurance will remain prohibitively expensive and ship-owners will be unwilling to risk sailing through the strait.
Moreover it seems unlikely there are any/many ocean going oil-tankers under Philippine flag.